HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
SEPTEMBER 26, 2014
by Dick Powell
I rarely criticize jockeys’ rides. At least, not publicly. It’s a bad habit
to get into as it’s too easy to blame the jockey for losing and not my own
handicapping.
When California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) was beaten in the Belmont Stakes (G1)
and failed to become racing’s 12th Triple Crown winner, many jumped on Victor
Espinoza’s decision to take back and ride him passively. I didn’t agree since
Espinoza had to be concerned with him having his third race in five weeks and
who knows how bad he was hurt when stepped on coming out of the gate.
It’s easy to say Espinoza should have gone to the front with California
Chrome but if he failed to get the 1 1/2 miles, he would have been
second-guessed forever.
In Saturday’s Pennsylvania Derby (G2), everybody knew that Bayern (Offlee
Wild) would go to the front. It’s all he knows. But coming off a 105-day layoff,
I expected California Chrome to be fresh and eager. From post 1, it seemed that
Espinoza would have no choice but to use California Chrome’s natural speed and
go up and stalk.
Instead, Espinoza broke him alertly but after Bayern cleared the field a
hundred yards out of the gate, he rode California Chrome passively and seemed
surprised when Edgar Prado went ahead of him aboard C J’s Awesome (Awesome
Again) going into the turn.
Espinoza looked like he asked California Chrome for more speed to get outside
of Bayern but Prado had him pinned in. When he tried to ease back of C J’s
Awesome around the turn, Javier Castellano had Protonico (Giant’s Causeway) move
right up next to him. The trap was set, Espinoza fell into it, and Bayern was
cruising along on an uncontested lead.
There is no way Espinoza could have outsprinted Bayern going into the first
turn but after breaking well, he should have used California Chrome’s natural
speed to get off the rail for a clear, stalking trip. Instead, he found himself
stuck on the inside with nowhere to go. At no point did he look comfortable and
his head carriage was different than it was in the Derby/Preakness.
When the running got serious turning for home, Bayern was long gone and
cruised to a well-earned victory. He set a new track record of 1:46.96 and after
the race, Bob Baffert said he would choose among three Breeders’ Cup races —
the Sprint (G1), the Dirt Mile (G1) and the Classic (G1).
Give Baffert a lot of credit. He trains fast horses and doesn’t train the
speed out of them. He knows that on big days, when he usually has a contender or
two, dirt tracks are groomed for speed and he instructs his riders to go to the
front. It all adds up to a lot of wins on the biggest stage.
To show you how fast the Parx Racing surface was on Saturday, we saw the
Gallant Bob Stakes (G3) go in 1:08.16 with Favorite Tale (Tale of the Cat)
running the first half-mile in :43.38. In the Cotillion Stakes (G1), heavily
favored Untapable (Tapit) had to struggle a bit to get by early leader Jojo
Warrior (Pioneerof the Nile) to go on to a professional win over late closer
Sweet Reason (Street Sense).
***
This Saturday, Belmont Park is the host to five Grade 1 stakes races and a
Grade 2. Santa Anita matches with five Grade 1 stakes races of their own.
Keeneland opens the following weekend and they will have a bunch of stakes races
with Breeders’ Cup implications.
Belmont received a lot of rain on Thursday and the races came off the turf.
The main track should be fine for Saturday but the turf will have some give to
it. From a handicapping perspective, it could be a challenge projecting form
over a soft turf course to the firm conditions these horses are going to
encounter at Santa Anita.
***
Street Cry (Machiavellian) passed away over a week ago at the young age of
16. His loss is tragic for the American Thoroughbred who tends to lack stamina
as Street Cry passed it on to his offspring in spades. He was a terrific
racehorse that won the Stephen Foster H. (G1) and the Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1)
but it was in the breeding shed that he really excelled.
With a pedigree heavily tilted towards turf, Street Cry’s offspring were able
to handle dirt, turf, short and long. He will always be remembered as the sire
of the immortal Zenyatta and with only nine crops to race, he has sired 15
Grade/Group 1 winners all over the world.
His Street Sense won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) as well as the Kentucky
Derby (G1). Street Boss won two Grade 1 stakes races going short and has turned
into a terrific turf sire while Princess Highway was a co-champion in England.
But what always amazed me with Street Cry was how well he did shuttling to
Australia. Whobegotyou won the Caulfield Guineas (Aus-G1) going a mile and the
Yalumba Stakes (Aus-G1) going 1 1/4 miles. Long John also won the Caulfield
Guineas but it was Shocking who showed that the American Thoroughbred can sire
winners at the highest levels all over the world.
Shocking was a nice colt in Australia that was second in the Queensland Derby
(Aus-G1) going 1 1/2 miles. He returned in the spring to win the Lexus Stakes
(G3) on the last Saturday in October and came back four days later to take down
the Melbourne Cup (Aus-G1) going two miles.
Not many sires could be said to sire the winners of the Norfolk Stakes (G1)
on dirt for two-year-olds as well as the Melbourne Cup for older horses on turf.
But that was Street Cry; gone at the age of 16. What a loss.