HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
SEPTEMBER 6, 2014
by Dick Powell
I have great seats at Saratoga. Far enough back to see the whole track and a
high-def television right above me if I don’t bring my binoculars. When I am
home, I try to watch the races in high-def on the NYRA web site or their new app
for smartphones.
The point is, I have a real clear view of all the races. And watching them
every day for 40 days, and discussing them with friends that follow closely as
well, we see a lot of things.
The most obvious is Javier Castellano has taken his game to a whole new level
and is one of the great riders in the sport. I hesitate to say he’s the best in
America after seeing what Rafael Bejarano just did at the Del Mar meet. Still,
he’s been great for the past few years and now dominates with physical skills
and a canny understanding of race dynamics. Always in the right spot, he is, and
will be for the foreseeable future, the best rider in New York as all the big
stables want him.
Some of his highlight reel rides this meet came in races other than stakes
ones. On July 20 in the fifth race, Castellano gunned Spring to the Sky (Langfuhr)
to the front and took command in a 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint. Even though it
looked like he was flying on the front end, the tele-timer does not lie and he
covered the first quarter in a pedestrian :22.68.
At that point, the Lucky Coin Stakes was going to be a three-furlong sprint
to the finish and nobody was going to pass Castellano as he set down Spring to
the Sky to run the next three furlongs in :32.90 to win easily. Was Spring to
the Sky the best horse in the race? Of course he was. But Castellano put his
mark on the race and taught him to relax early even though he was on the lead.
Another signature ride came on August 9 in a two-year-old maiden special
weight race going 1 1/16 miles on the Mellon turf course. Castellano gunned
Designed for War (War Front) to the front from post six going into the first
turn. He was intent on clearing the field and ran the first furlongs in :11.91.
A first time starter from the Todd Pletcher barn, Designed for War looked
like he might go too fast into the first turn but without any visible effort,
Castellano took a hold of him once he made the lead and covered the next furlong
in :13.10.
Now, he had the lead with the pace he wanted and Castellano kept throwing 12
and change furlongs at the field. Here is the pace he set for each furlong:
:11.91
:13.10
:12.99
:12.61
:12.58
:12.24
:12.69
:11.14
Throw in a final sixteenth of a mile in :5.76 and the heist was over. The
rest of the riders looked like the guard that used to fall asleep in the lobby
of the bank in Mayberry on The Andy Griffith Show. By the time he would
wake up, it would be too late. Or, as colorful Cajun conditioner Eric Guillot
likes to say, “Ring the bell. You’ve been schooled.”
Going to the front with a first-time starter going two turns on the turf
happens every day. But it seemed like only Javier Castellano could run his first
furlong in :11.91 and then the second in :13.10 while still controlling the
field on the front end.
Obviously, his flawless ride on V. E. Day (English Channel) in the Travers S.
(G1) was something that will be shown over and over as a testament to his
dominance. But, for me, it was the races earlier on weekday cards that brought
out the best in Castellano.
The Ortiz brothers were sensational throughout the meet. While Javier
Castellano finished the meet with 58 winners, Irad Ortiz Jr. won 53 times and
looked like the second coming of Ramon Dominguez.
Irad Ortiz Jr. has a knack for getting his horses into a fluid stride no
matter what the surface going long. His 20 percent win rate going long was
second only to Castellano. Irad places his horses into good position, gets them
to relax and conserve energy, then, they finish strong. He does not get much
business from Todd Pletcher or Chad Brown but does great with a wide variety of
horses and running styles.
Jose Ortiz was only able to win with 10 percent of his route mounts but in
sprints, he doubles that rate with 20 percent of them winning. This equals
Irad’s win rate with sprint mounts and the only other rider at that level with
sprinters was Rosie Napravnik.
Irad won an amazing 22 percent with his turf rides but Jose only won with 9
percent. This is mostly due to the older Irad having a more mature business than
Jose. Watch Jose close this gap in the coming years with more experience.
Rosie Napravnik, with limited opportunities, had a strong meet winning with
17 percent of her mounts. She was equally proficient on turf and dirt and
brought home a lot of winners for Steve Asmussen, who was about the only
big-name trainer smart enough to employ Rosie on a frequent basis.
On the down side, if you want to call it that, were perennial kingpins like
Johnny Velazquez and Joel Rosario. There was nothing wrong with their meets
other than it was not up to prior standards. Johnny still gets most of the first
calls from Todd Pletcher and Rosario has the shrewdest agent in the business.
For them to only have 38 and 33 winners, respectively, is not a healthy sign;
especially for Rosario.
Velazquez has reached an age where he can ride by “appointment only.” He’s
earned it at the age of 42. But Rosario, at the age of 29, should be dominating
meets. He did in California but since moving his tack to New York, he has yet to
win a riding title here. He had a monster meet at Keeneland in the spring of
2013 but not enough of them for a rider of his age and talent.
Julien Leparoux had 81 mounts at Saratoga and only won with 4 of them. It was
painful to watch him wrestle his mounts on the turf back into traffic and then
be too far behind to be any kind of threat. Maybe he can get it going back in
Kentucky at the Churchill Downs September meet but at least in New York for now,
he is a non-factor.