DEROSA’S BLOG
SEPTEMBER 30, 2014
Horse of the Year Race Down To Eight
by Ed DeRosa
The criteria voters use to determine their top 10 horses is as subjective as
the ranking themselves. Some vote on accomplishment, others based on who is the
most talented, some as a pure “Horse of the Year” question, and most as some
combination of those three things.
Poll administrator Joan Lawrence has said that the poll should most reflect
the voter’s thoughts on who is most likely to win Horse of the Year when the
racing season ends. It is with that question in mind that I don’t rank Palace
Malice in the top 8, as while he’s the best main track older male to run this
year, he has no chance at Horse of the Year as the eight in front of him do.
So, with one major prep weekend remaining ahead of the Breeders’ Cup World
Championships on October 31-November 1 at Santa Anita Park, we are down to eight
horses who still have a chance at winning the gold statue.
The horses who most control their own destiny are the four Grade 1-winning
three-year-olds expected for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. If either of Bayern,
California Chrome, Shared Belief, or Tonalist win that race then with one small
possible exception discussed below, would undoubtedly be Horse of the Year and
champion three-year-old male.
Interestingly, it would also mark the first time in seven years that the
Classic winner goes on to win Horse of the Year, and the last time it happened
— 2007 — was in a Classic field most celebrated as a three-year-old showdown
between Derby winner Street Sense, Preakness winner Curlin, and Hard Spun, who
had just defeated Street Sense in the Kentucky Cup. Curlin won to earn the first
of his two Horse of the Year awards.
Next on my list are the multiple Grade 1-winning turf males Main Sequence and
Wise Dan. The former has the Grade 1 edge for now, but the latter is running
this weekend. If either wins out and one of the aforementioned three-year-olds
falters in the Classic then the Horse of the Year could go to the champion turf
male for the third consecutive year.
Either Close Hatches or Untapable would gain some Horse of the Year
consideration with a Distaff win (that assumes Close Hatches wins the Juddmonte
Spinster Stakes on Sunday at Keeneland Race Course), but unless the winner
returns to defeat males in a race like the Clark I wouldn’t back them.
Palace Malice and Palace round out my top ten as leaders of the older male
and sprint divisions, respectively, but neither is a Horse of the Year
candidate.
Some kooky things can happen, of course… if none of the aforementioned horses
wins, then California Chrome is probably the most likely Horse of the Year with
three Grade 1 wins, including the classic double of the Kentucky Derby and
Preakness Stakes. I wouldn’t vote for him, as he’d be lacking a win against
older males, but precedence certainly favors dual classic winners as a default
(e.g. Charismatic in 1999), so from a who-will-win versus who-should-win
standpoint he’d be my pick.
The closest vote would likely be between a Classic-winning Bayern and a
Mile-winning Wise Dan. I’d vote for Bayern if that’s where their seasons end,
but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wise Dan in the Clark where a win would
likely earn him champion older male for sure and possibly Horse of the Year to
go with champion turf male if he wins the Mile (though if Main Sequence wins the
Turf then maybe he gets turf male and Wise Dan can get older male and Horse of
the Year with a Clark win. It would be a shame to see a multiple Grade 1-winning
Turf winner denied an Eclipse Award again a la Little Mike in 2012).
I see no scenario, however, where a Classic win from either of the classic
winners (California Chrome and Tonalist) or the undefeated champion Shared
Belief does not result in Horse of the Year even if Wise Dan goes on to annex
another Grade 1 post Breeders’ Cup.
Either Close Hatches or Untapable would be fun Clark additions if Horse of
the Year is in play. Racing Hall of Fame Trainer D. Wayne Lukas saddled
three-year-old filly Surfside to a Clark victory in 2000 following a loss to
longshot stablemate Spain in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. That win wasn’t good
enough for gold, but she did win champion three-year-old filly.
Here’s a look at the Eclipse Award races by division:
Three-year-old male: California Chrome is the leader of the
division, but any of the other three Horse of the Year candidates would usurp
him with a Breeders’ Cup Classic win. Otherwise, California Chrome — even if he
tanks the rest of the year — gets the nod as a dual classic winner.
Three-year-old filly: Kentucky Oaks winner Untapable
unquestionably the leader, but Alabama winner Stopchargingmaria would be hard to
deny the award if she wins the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. I look at the year both of
these horses have had and still can’t believe Oaks-Alabama winner Flute lost
champion three-year-old filly to Breeders’ Cup Sprint runner-up Xtra Heat.
Older male: Many horses with just the one Grade 1 win with
Palace Malice best of the bunch, but the spring and early summer form has not
held well, as three-year-olds have won the major late summer and early fall
prizes.
Older female: Close Hatches in the driver’s seat especially
with a win on Sunday, but Beholder or Belle Galantey would deserve consideration
with a Breeders’ Cup Distaff win
Male sprinter: Likely to come down to the Breeders’ Cup Sprint,
but Palace leads the division on accomplishment.
Female sprinter: Likely to come down to the Breeders’ Cup Filly
& Mare Sprint, but Artemis Agrotera has flashed the most brilliance to date.
Turf male: Down to Wise Dan and Main Sequence, a matchup
reminiscent of 2012 when Wise Dan, Little Mike, and Point of Entry all came into
the Breeders’ Cup with multiple Grade 1 wins. Wise Dan won the Mile and Little
Mike the Turf, and the Eclipse Awards went to Wise Dan. I expect the same to
happen if Wise Dan threepeats—even if Main Sequence wins his fourth Grade 1 in
the Turf.
Turf female: Euro Charline’s Beverly D. is looking better and
better with also rans going on to win Grade 1 races on both coasts, but only a
QE2 win might not be enough to take down a Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf
winner who already has a Grade 1.