BREEDERS’ CUP FEATURE
OCTOBER 27, 2014
BC Trainer Report
by James Scully
Since its inception in 1984, the Breeders’ Cup has been the target for top
stables around the world. And many of the biggest trainers in Thoroughbred
racing will be represented by multiple starters in this year’s races at Santa
Anita.
The two-day, 13-race event drew a record 201 pre-entries and handicappers
will spend plenty of hours breaking down all the horses. But this is an
opportunity to focus upon the conditioners, providing statistics and a look at
their horses in the Breeders’ Cup.
Among trainers in this year’s Breeders’ Cup, with a minimum of three wins,
David Hofmans leads the way with a 20 percent win rate (three-for-15). He will
be represented by only Home Run Kitten, who enters the Turf Sprint off a victory
in the Eddie D. Stakes down the hillside course at Santa Anita.
Michael Stoute ranks second by win percentage, 17.6 percent. We’ll take a
closer look at the English-based trainer below.
Here is a breakdown of some major trainers in this year’s Breeders’ Cup:
Todd Pletcher (103-7-11-13 Breeders’ Cup record)
The leading conditioner in the United States, Pletcher has earned the Eclipse
Award for champion trainer an unprecedented six times and is poised to easily
capture a fifth straight earnings crown. As of October 20, the Pletcher stable
has bankrolled $19,737,598 in 2014, more than $8 million ahead of Chad Brown in
second, and is scoring at an overall 24 percent clip (208-for-854).
Pletcher’s Breeders’ Cup record (6.7 percent win) does not come close to
matching his typical heady win rate at high-profile meets like Saratoga,
Gulfstream, Belmont and Keeneland,. He ranks second in overall starts (103) but
only seventh by wins, going 17-1-1-2 the last two years at Santa Anita.
His number of Breeders’ Cup horses is down significantly; Pletcher
pre-entered a record 18 in 2006, but he started eight horses in 2013 and is
represented by only five entries this year.
Breeders’ Cup horses:
Angela Renee (Juvenile Fillies) – She is the Juvenile
Fillies morning line favorite following her comfortable 1 1/2-length Chandelier victory at
Santa Anita on September 27. Bernardini filly has won two-of-four starts, placing in a pair of
graded stakes.
Carpe Diem (Juvenile) – Two for two in his career, son of Giant’s
Causeway earned a 100 BRIS Speed rating when rallying from just off the pace in
the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, scoring by a widening 6 1/4-length margin
while making a spectacular two-turn debut at the Juvenile’s 1 1/16-mile
distance.
Daredevil (Juvenile) — Provides a formidable one-two punch,
impressively winning both career starts on wet tracks. Speedster registered a
Juvenile field-best 104 Speed rating taking the Champagne at Belmont Park.
Feathered (Juvenile Fillies) — Posted a smart 9 3/4-length maiden win
at Saratoga two starts back and exits a rallying third in the Frizette at
Belmont. Out of a Dynaformer mare, she could appreciate the stretch out to two
turns.
Isabella Sings (Juvenile Fillies Turf) – A debut winner on Belmont’s
turf, she established herself as a top contender with a neck second in the
Natalma at Woodbine. Daughter of Eskendereya is bred to relish two turns and
will show speed.
Outlook: Pletcher is focused upon juvenile events this year and two-year-olds
have accounted for four of his seven Breeders’ Cup victories, including three
wins in 2010 (Juvenile, Juvenile Turf and Juvenile Fillies Turf). His only
victory at Santa Anita the past two years came via Shanghai Bobby in the 2012
Juvenile and Havana finished second in the same race last year. His youngsters
could make a serious impact.
Bob Baffert (83-10-11-3)
Baffert ranks second by wins among Breeders’ Cup trainers, trailing D. Wayne
Lukas 19-10, and the Hall of Famer appears well-represented this year with a
couple of likely favorites, American Pharoah and Secret Circle, as well as Horse
of the Year contender Bayern.
His 12 percent win clip compares favorably and four of his Breeders’ Cup
victories have come at Santa Anita, including New Year’s Day (Juvenile) and
Secret Circle (Sprint) last year as Baffert rebounded from a disappointing
zero-for-10 stint in 2012. Baffert pre-entered eight horses for the 2014
Breeders’ Cup but Midnight Lucky has been scratched from the Filly & Mare
Sprint.
BC horses:
American Pharoah (Juvenile) – Broke his maiden in sensational fashion
second time out in the Del Mar Futurity, registering a 103 BRIS Speed rating for
the 4 3/4-length decision, and exits a 3 1/4-length romp in the local prep, the
September 27 FrontRunner at Santa Anita. Son of Pioneerof the Nile looms a
serious wire-to-wire threat.
Bayern (Classic) – Speed is his game, posting smashing front-running
wins in the Haskell Invitational (106 Speed rating), Pennsylvania Derby (109)
and Woody Stephens (108) in his last four starts, and his last-place Travers
finish came over a deep track at Saratoga. Speed-friendly track at Santa Anita
could aid his chances of getting the 1 1/4-mile distance.
Fed Biz (Dirt Mile) – Hasn’t been a factor in this event the past two
years (eighth in 2012 and sixth in 2013) but will enter in strong form this
year, recording a convincing win in the San Diego before runner-up finishes in
the Pat O’Brien and Awesome Again. Nearly defeated Shared Belief in the latter,
falling a neck short in a valiant performance.
Indianapolis (Sprint) – Lightly-raced colt was on Kentucky Derby trail
after opening career with a pair of sharp wins over the winter, including a 4
1/4-length tally in six-furlong San Pedro, and came back from eight-month layoff
with a nice triumph in a recent Santa Anita allowance. Must overcome a lack of
seasoning but can be considered a wildcard due to his immense potential.
One Lucky Dane (Juvenile) – High-priced son of Lookin at Lucky exits a
9 1/2-length maiden win going two turns at Santa Anita in his third start.
Promising sort will be an outsider against a deep field of rivals.
Secret Circle (Sprint) – Following the same pattern as last year when
he came back from a lengthy layoff with an October prep race before the main
event. Proved best as the 5-2 Sprint favorite in 2013, rallying from just off
the pace to a neck decision, and prepped for his title defense with a good third
in the October 4 Santa Anita Sprint Championship, his first race since early
February. Very formidable.
Tiz Midnight (Distaff) – She’ll need a career-best to challenge, but
four-year-old exits a respectable second to Beholder in her stakes debut, the
September 27 Zenyatta, and could prove to be the speed of the speed. Filly will
attempt to outperform expectations with further improvement.
Outlook: With major contenders in four events, Baffert probably expects to
add to his Breeders’ Cup trophy case. He’s got a home-field advantage at Santa
Anita.
Bill Mott (77-9-10-5)
With nine wins, Mott is tied with fellow Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey for
third all-time. Five were recorded in the Distaff and he’ll send out this year’s
likely favorite, Close Hatches.
Mott scores at an 11.6 percent rate in the Breeders’ Cup, three coming in
California, the last via 2012 Distaff winner Royal Delta. Two of his eight
pre-entries this year will need assistance from the also-eligibles list.
BC horses:
Bio Pro (Turf Sprint) – An allowance winner most recently at Belmont
Park, Bio Pro is stuck five spots down on the also-eligibles list and will be a
huge longshot if he makes the starting gate.
Cigar Street (Classic) –Registered one of the top BRIS Speed ratings
in 2013, a 115 for his victory in the Skip Away early in the year, but wasn’t
seen again under silks for nearly 17 months. He shows two starts in preparation,
including a game win in the September 27 Homecoming Classic at Churchill Downs,
but needs to move forward significantly from that effort to challenge.
Close Hatches (Distaff) – Established her dominance in the division by
opening the year with four straight stakes wins, including June’s Ogden Phipps
at Belmont over top rivals Beholder and Princess of Sylmar, but surprisingly
came up flat in the October 5 Spinster at Keeneland, finishing a well-beaten
fourth at 1-5 odds. That looks like an aberration and four-year-old filly
appears capable of rebounding given her fine second in last year’s Distaff at
Santa Anita.
Emollient (Filly & Mare Turf) – She likes Santa Anita’s turf,
finishing only a length back in fourth in last year’s Filly & Mare Turf and
winning the Rodeo Drive over the course on September 27, but will need to raise
her game against a deep group of challengers, including several quality invaders
from Europe.
Puca (Juvenile Fillies) – Exits a 16-length maiden win over a short
field at Belmont Park in her third career start and will face a stiff class
check in her stakes bow.
Quality Rocks (Juvenile Fillies Turf) – After opening her career with
a pair of wins on synthetic tracks, she was transferred to Mott and turned in a
solid second in her turf debut, the October 8 Jessamine at Keeneland. Daughter
of Rock Hard Ten figures to be up close from the start and rates as a possible
sleeper.
Seek Again (Mile) – Proved to be a game winner of the Fourstardave at
Saratoga two starts back but experienced a troubled trip last time, checking in
sixth in the Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland. With Wise Dan’s absence, he’s
among the best U.S hopes but is in tough versus a talented group of
European-based rivals.
Tourist (Mile) – Likely can make the field from the also-eligibles
list (needs two defections) and would add to the pace, but it’s probably best to
look for more down the road from the promising three-year-old colt.
Outlook: The Distaff is a forte and Mott has been in this position before –
previous winners Ajina (1997), Escena (1998), Unrivaled Belle (2010) and Royal
Delta (first Distaff in 2011) all lost their final prep race. Close Hatches is
the big gun and it’s difficult to get excited about his remaining Breeders’ Cup
stock.
Chad Brown (23-2-3-3)
Brown led all trainers with 11 entries and easily captured the
trainer’s title during the Belmont fall meet. He has enhanced his reputation as
a turf conditioner through the Breeders’ Cup, with all eight of his top three
finishes coming in grass races, and will bring a strong contingent of turf
horses into this year’s event.
BC horses:
Bakken (Sprint) – Speedster possesses a nice set of BRIS Speed ratings
but has raced sparingly, with two starts this year and no stakes wins to his
credit. He didn’t fire when shipping to Santa Anita last year and it’s tough to
make a strong case for his chances.
Big Blue Kitten (Turf) – Rallied to finish a respectable second to
Hillstar in the recent Canadian International but his only win since August 2013
has come in a restricted stakes. No factor in this race last year and he’ll face
an extreme class test once again.
Bobby’s Kitten (Turf Sprint) – Poised to make first career start at
less than a mile and brings quality speed to the race. Exits a fine third in the
September 14 Woodbine Mile, his best performance since the spring, and finished
a close third as the favorite in last year’s Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita.
Dayatthespa (Filly & Mare Turf) – Cross-entered to both the Mile and
Filly & Mare Turf, her best chance comes in the latter. The 1 1/4-mile distance
represents a challenge, but five-year-old mare is arguably in career-best form,
registering a 103 BRIS Speed rating for her commanding Grade 1 victory in the
October 4 First Lady at Keeneland. Will be up close from the start.
Lady Eli (Juvenile Fillies Turf) – Two for two in her career, daughter
of Divine Park will contend for favoritism. She overcame a troubled trip to win
her debut by a nose and captured the September 28 Miss Grillo at Belmont Park
with ease, registering a 112 BRIS Late Pace rating while scoring by three
lengths. Very formidable.
Offering Plan (Juvenile Turf) – Rallied to an easy debut maiden win
over New York-bred rivals before a respectable third in the September 28 Pilgrim
at Belmont Park, earning commendable BRIS Speed and Late Pace numbers after a
wide trip. His ability to finish makes him an interesting candidate for a top
three finish at an expected price.
Partisan Politics (Juvenile Fillies Turf) – Broke her maiden second
time out in the P.G. Johnson at Saratoga but checked in a non-threatening fourth
in the Miss Grillo last time. More Than Ready filly possesses a decent late kick
but doesn’t rate as one of Brown’s main contenders in this event.
Sivoliere (Juvenile Fillies Turf) – Regally-bred daughter of Sea the
Stars will be piloted by Gary Stevens in her first U.S. start. She’s run better
on ground with less give to it, which could benefit her over expected firm
conditions at Santa Anita, and displayed good class overseas. Sivoliere may not
be the most imposing European shipper on paper but remains eligible to run well
from off the pace.
Startup Nation (Juvenile Turf) – New York-bred colt opened career with
a pair of convincing wins, defeating state-bred maiden foes prior to a 4
1/2-length romp in the With Anticipation at Saratoga, but fell short as the 1-2
favorite in the September 28 Pilgrim at Belmont Park, finishing fourth. Will
look to rebound and deserves serious consideration.
Stephanie’s Kitten (Filly & Mare Turf) – Big chance to give Brown his
second win in this event in three years (Zagora captured 2012 edition).
Stephanie’s Kitten opened the year with a couple of unplaced efforts before
posting consecutive runner-up finishes, but she was dropping too far back during
early stages before rallying belatedly. Displayed noticeable improvement last
time, the September 27 Flower Bowl at Belmont, racing up close from the start
before crushing rivals, and the multiple Grade 1 heroine is hitting her best
stride at the right time of year.
Tammy the Torpedo (Juvenile Fillies Turf) – Easily broke her maiden
first time out at Saratoga, looking like a filly with a bright future when
rolling from off the pace to a 3 1/4-length decision, but came up short in third
as the favorite in the Miss Grillo. Daughter of More Than Ready can’t be
completely dismissed from win consideration in a highly-contentious field.
Zivo (Classic) – Loves Belmont, earning 103 and 104 Speed ratings in
his last two outings at “Big Sandy,” both at 1 1/4 miles, and turned in a huge
effort rallying for second in the September 27 Jockey Club Gold Cup after being
steadied repeatedly during the race. New York-bred has really come on at age
five but carrying his form forward to Santa Anita, with his deep closing style,
is a difficult proposition.
Outlook: Brown could be labeled a “turf maestro” following this year’s
Breeders’ Cup – he has a legitimate chance to win several grass races.
Steve Asmussen (32-4-4-2)
Asmussen brings a respectable 12.5 percent win clip into the Breeders’ Cup
and has fared well at Santa Anita. He didn’t have the stock last year with only
three starters, but upset the 2012 Dirt Mile with 15-1 Tapizar and recorded
three seconds (all 9-2 or higher) at that year’s edition in Arcadia, California.
BC horses:
Lucky Player (Juvenile) – Exits a career-best effort in the September
6 Iroquois at Churchill Downs, posting a narrow upset at 11-1, but the runner-up
(Bold Conquest) and third-placer (Hashtag Bourbon) did not run well in
subsequent starts versus graded rivals and Lucky Player steps up to face a deep
group in this year’s Juvenile.
Mico Margarita (Sprint) – Figures to be overlooked following stakes
wins at Remington Park and Mountaineer, but four-year-old colt merits respect
given his current form – he’s posted BRIS Speed ratings of 103 (last time) and
101 (twice) in his last three outings. Class concerns remain but don’t be
shocked to see him jump forward with a strong effort.
Tapiture (Dirt Mile) – Cuts back in distance off a pair of commendable
efforts, registering century-topping Speed ratings for a victory in West
Virginia Derby and a runner-up effort in Pennsylvania Derby, and he’s displayed
a fine finishing kick in three outings since the Kentucky Derby. Don’t know if
he’ll be able to run down the speed at Santa Anita, but three-year-old belongs
in the mix of serious win contenders.
Unbridled’s Note (Turf Sprint) – Finished second in 2012 and fourth
last year in this event but is unplaced in all three outings this year and
ranked sixth on the also-eligibles list, one spot ahead of stablemate Regally
Ready. Appears unlikely to factor if he does make the field.
Untapable (Distaff) – Connections hope to see her make amends for a
dreadful experience in last year’s Juvenile Fillies in which she was eased after
experiencing extreme trouble. Three-year-old filly is five-for-six this season,
the only setback coming against males in the Haskell, and arrived early at Santa
Anita, training locally the entire month of October with a recent five-furlong
bullet work (:58). Classy filly is the likely second choice to Close Hatches.
Outlook: Asmussen has proven that he can get his horses ready for the
Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita and his 2014 contingent appears to be in good form
(excluding the also-eligibles). He may not come away with any wins, but his
horses appear capable of challenging in at least a couple of spots.
Aidan O’Brien (88-8-12-7)
Irish-based O’Brien is a huge supporter of the Breeders’ Cup, targeting
multiple races each year, and he’s done his best work in the Turf, earning a
fourth win in the 1 1/2-mile event when Magician posted a 12-1 upset last year.
He’ll send the colt back for a title defense and also has the filly Chicquita
pre-entered.
BC horses:
Chicquita (Turf) – Her success on “good ground” overseas could bode
well for her chances. After displaying top-class form at age three last season,
she sold for a record price at an Irish auction ($8.073 million) in November.
Her Coolmore connections brought her back in mid-September and despite dropping
all three outings, she’s performed respectably twice against good company, the
only subpar showing coming from an extreme post position in the Arc. Don’t
underestimate O’Brien’s ability to get the most out of his horses despite a
demanding schedule as Chicquita makes her third start in a four-week window.
Magician (Turf) – Magician was off since June and had never raced at 1
1/2 miles prior to last year’s Turf, but he won’t be an unknown quantity this
year. The four-year-old colt captured a Group 3 stakes at the Curragh before
recording runner-up finishes to The Fugue and Noble Mission in Group 1 events
during the spring/summer, and he’s been freshened up since a second in the
Arlington Million, a tactic that worked so well last November at Santa Anita.
He’s one of several capable international raiders in this event.
Qualify (Juvenile Fillies Turf) – Exits a Group 3 triumph at the
Curragh and is bred to appreciate the stretch out to a two-turn mile. She wasn’t
a serious factor in two previous stakes attempts versus better company, but
Qualify remains eligible to keep improving off a confidence-building win and
shouldn’t be easily dismissed from win consideration.
The Great War (Juvenile) – He’s raced exclusively on turf but is bred
to flourish on a dirt surface with similar bloodlines to multiple Grade
2-winning millionaire Departing (both are by War Front and are out of full
sisters). The $1 million yearling purchase hasn’t performed up to lofty
expectations so far but does show three wins from seven starts, including a
convincing listed stakes tally last out on September 28. Faces a difficult
challenge in a deep Juvenile field.
War Envoy (Juvenile Turf) – Looks like a serious player in this spot.
A bit disappointing early in his career, the son of War Front brings improving
form into the Breeders’ Cup. He posted a third in an Irish Group 3 event and a
second in an English Group 2 race before rallying to be a close fifth in a Group
1 test on the Arc undercard at Longchamp. Could continue to show more at Santa
Anita.
Outlook: O’Brien is very adept shipping his horses to America and
European-based horses tend to show up with their best over the Santa Anita turf
course, producing four wins in 2013.
Sir Michael Stoute (34-6-2-3)
A 10-time champion English trainer, Stoute handles most of the Queen’s best
horses and is one of the most respected horsemen in the world. The four-time
Turf winner has recorded four of his six Breeders’ Cup victories at Santa Anita.
Dank (Filly & Mare Turf) – Showed an affinity for the course winning
last year’s Filly & Mare Turf but has been dogged by a foot problem and won’t
bring the same form into this event, recording a pair of non-threatening efforts
in her lone appearances this year. She had won three of her previous four starts
before last year’s Breeders’ Cup and is probably facing a deeper field this
year, but Dank is still a talented mare who is unbeaten from two Grade 1
attempts in America.
Telescope (Turf) – After a solid sophomore season, Telescope has
improved significantly at age four. He displayed high class in his last two
outings, a third in the Juddmonte International and a second in the King George
VI and Queen Elizabeth, and his easy seven-length tally in the Group 2 Hardwicke
three starts back was flattered by runner-up Hillstar’s recent victory in the
Canadian International at Woodbine. When Stoute announced in September that he
was skipping the Arc and pointing the four-year-old son of Galileo to the Turf,
it was easy to take notice. Telescope prefers good-to-firm ground and will take
some beating.
Outlook: Stoute does a great job targeting big races and his horses will show
up with their best at Santa Anita – he’s won a Breeders’ Cup race over the
course in four of the last five editions (2003, 2008, 2009 and 2013).
Trainers with multiple Breeders’ Cup wins like Richard Mandella (seven), Neil
Drysdale (six) and John Gosden (four) are conspicuous by their absence in this
year’s Breeders’ Cup.
Andre Fabre (44-4-5-7) and Freddy Head (6-3-0-1) have both proven dangerous
in past editions and will be represented by a lone starter, with Fabre sending
out Arc runner-up Flintshire in the Turf and Head responsible for Anodin in the
Mile.
Flintshire’s improving form must be respected and he’s in good company
following his second-place finish to Treve last time — eight also-rans from the
Arc have shipped over to win the Turf. Anodin doesn’t rate as a top contender,
but he shows some respectable performances this season and is a full brother to
three-time Mile winner Goldikova.
D. Wayne Lukas and Shug McGaughey are both represented by a pair of entries, but none rate as serious win
prospects.