INTERNATIONALS IN THE
BREEDERS’ CUP
OCTOBER 31, 2014
The international representation at Breeders’ Cup XXXI is as deep as it is
numerous. While the European contingent is always formidable in the turf events,
the raiding party has some chances on the main track as well.
To analyze their prospects, we’ll consider not only the strength of their
form from home, but also which ones are likeliest to adapt to Santa Anita. The
profiles of the Saturday runners will be posted Friday as Volume II.
BREEDERS’ CUP FRIDAY
Juvenile Turf
WAR ENVOY has taken his time on the learning curve for Aidan O’Brien, but the
War Front colt is finally getting his act together, and could be just the type
to improve markedly at Santa Anita. O’Brien described him as “babyish” after his
effortless debut win at Naas April 28, and he certainly ran like it in
subsequent stakes. Ranging up before stalling to third in the June 2 Rochestown
over the same course and distance, he was in the midst of an eye-catching rally
in the June 17 Coventry at Royal Ascot, only to veer across to his left and cost
himself dearly in ninth. War Envoy was a non-threatening third in first-time
blinkers in the June 28 Railway at the Curragh, but showed more without the
headgear when a much sharper third in the August 31 Round Tower at the same
venue. The combination of a stretch-out to seven furlongs, and the rider change
to Ryan Moore, saw him turn in his two strongest efforts yet. He did his best
work late for a close second to Estidhkaar in the September 13 Champagne at
Doncaster, with subsequent Dewhurst hero Belardo back in fourth. War Envoy also
closed deceptively well in the October 5 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, racing in the
slipstream of his subsequently-demoted stablemate Gleneagles and finishing a
close fifth. This great-grandson of 1988 Kentucky Derby heroine Winning Colors
is well drawn in post 7.
WET SAIL, seventh in the same Newmarket maiden that marked Aktabantay’s
debut, won third time out in the manner of a potentially good gelding. By
Henrythenavigator (sire of 2012 BC Juvenile Turf winner George Vancouver), Wet
Sail traveled conspicuously well in a six-furlong dash at Salisbury August 29.
So easily was he going that he hit the front too soon, and Frederik Tylicki
tried to wait before setting him down in earnest. He kicked right away, evincing
the quick-striding action that should translate well to Santa Anita. The Qatar
Racing brain trust took notice and swooped in to purchase him. Remaining with
trainer Charlie Fellowes, Wet Sail took a class hike for the October 4 Redcar
Two-Year-Old Trophy and finished third to the exciting Limato, who mocked his
pursuers by coasting unextended. But the runner-up, Mattmu, is a decent
performer who came back to win the October 11 Rockingham at York. Wet Sail
handled himself well in a 23-horse field at Redcar, so this field will seem
small in comparison. The 15-1 shot will save ground throughout from his rail
post.
AKTABANTAY has been a work in progress for up-and-coming trainer Hugo Palmer,
who earmarked the 370,000gns Tattersalls October yearling for this race some
time ago. The Oasis Dream colt should have broken his maiden on debut at
Newmarket May 4, but he broke slowly, and raced greenly, before rolling a
fraction too late. He was in the process of passing his rival when the wire came
too soon for him. Next time at Nottingham May 20, Palmer observed that he was
going through an awkward growing stage, and was still green. Aktabantay was
easily best in his third try at Newcastle June 26, and graduated to the stakes
ranks. Keeping on for second to the resounding Estidhkaar in the July 12
Superlative, he added cheekpieces for the August 30 Solario at Sandown. It was
probably jockey Ryan Moore, rather than the equipment, that galvanized the
wayward colt. Aktabantay looked surely beaten until he met the rising ground,
and driven on by a willful Moore, he just headed Future Empire on the line.
Although Aktabantay reportedly hated the good-to-soft ground in the Superlative
and the Solario, he does have the rounded type of action that usually signifies
the ability to cope with it. Palmer tried blinkers last time in the October 5
Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, but rider William Buick got shuffled back, had to alter
course and come around, and Aktabantay settled for a likely better-than-appears
sixth. Something of an underachiever so far, he is eligible to benefit from the
step up to a mile. But Santa Anita’s two-turn mile means that he has to get
himself organized a lot sooner, and new pilot Olivier Peslier could be the one
to help. [Thursday update: Aktabantay’s been scratched with a foot
injury.]
HOOTENANNY is based with Wesley Ward in the United States, but it’s his
performances abroad that make him a top contender. He scored a coup for his
freshman sire Quality Road in the June 17 Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot. Up
front throughout, he opened up by a good-looking 3 1/2 lengths and zipped five
furlongs in :59 — just off the :58 4/5 recorded by the world-class Sole Power
when repeating in the King’s Stand earlier on the card. Hootenanny stepped up to
six furlongs in the August 24 Prix Morny at Deauville, where he was worn down by
the very soft going as much as by The Wow Signal, previously winner of Royal
Ascot’s Coventry. He was beaten only a half-length, with the smart filly Ervedya
(later runner-up in the Prix Marcel Boussac) in third. Although Hootenanny could
not emulate stablemate No Nay Never’s success in the 2013 Morny, Ward
interestingly believes that he can go a mile, while classifying No Nay Never as
a pure sprinter. Ward’s judgment is reassuring, since Hootenanny’s dam is all
about speed, as a Hennessy half-sister to Prioress winner Cat Moves. Possibly
more problematic is the presence of pace rival Luck of the Kitten.
COMMEMORATIVE has a Juddmonte pedigree to swoon over, but the inexperienced,
long-striding colt might find Santa Anita too sharp for his taste. By Zamindar,
he is out of Revered, a full sister to Visit (past-the-post fourth in both the
2008 and 2009 Filly & Mare Turf), from the immediate family of Dansili, Banks
Hill, Intercontinental, etc. Nevertheless, the Charlie Hills juvenile gives off
the vibe of a colt whose strong suit will be relentless stamina. He was no match
for another Juddmonte runner, Time Test, in a seven-furlong maiden at Sandown
August 29 and lumbered up for fourth. Commemorative already needed a mile, and
obliged at that trip at Doncaster September 11, in a performance more indicative
of staying power than finesse. He reinforced that impression in the October 11
Autumn Stakes at Newmarket. The big colt galloped to the early lead, responded
to challenges, and kept on pounding away. Despite drifting well out toward the
middle of the course, he stayed a length clear, with Aktabantay’s Solario rival
Future Empire further away in third. With that kind of profile, it’s no wonder
that the Juddmonte brain trust planned to add him to the October 25 Racing Post
Trophy. But they were put off by the prospect of rain-softened ground, and opted
to try for the lucrative purse here. Unless Commemorative is a lot more agile
than he’s appeared on the straightaway, he could be at a disadvantage around a
two-turn mile.
FAITHFUL CREEK needs a defection as the first on the also-eligible list [and
will now get in following the ill-timed setback for Aktabantay]. The
Brian Meehan pupil would need to lift his game to factor, but the addition of
blinkers and Kieren Fallon may help. His most conspicuous formline is a distant
third to Ballydoyle’s highly-touted John F Kennedy in the September 13 Juvenile
Turf at Leopardstown. But his prior efforts may put that in a less flattering
context. Sent off at double-digit odds in each of his six starts, the Bushranger
colt was only seventh in the July 30 Vintage at Glorious Goodwood, a race whose
form has not really worked out. The same could be said of his second in the
August 24 Criterium du FEE over a soggy mile at Deauville, with lingering
questions about its merit. Should he not draw into this field, Faithful Creek
has a back-up plan in Saturday’s Juvenile Turf Sprint.
Dirt Mile
BRONZO shapes up as an able flag-bearer for his native Chile, whose
expatriates Cocoa Beach (runner-up in the 2008 Distaff), Host (two-time Mile
participant), and Infinidad (fourth in the 1987 Distaff) all performed
creditably for other connections in the Breeders’ Cup. Although the Jorges
Andres Inda charge has been competing over longer trips of late, he was highly
effective in the sprinter/miler range earlier in his career, and seven of his 11
wins have come between six furlongs and a mile. The son of 2000 Kentucky Derby
star Fusaichi Pegasus has won three of his past four, his only recent loss an
eminently forgettable fourth in the March 15 Gran Premio Asociacion
Latinoamericana. That prestigious contest is a moveable feast around the
continent, and this year it was at Peru’s Monterrico, which favors the
locally-based runners. Bronzo performed adequately as best of the shippers, but
the form should not be read literally. He rebounded with an 8 3/4-length
conquest in the May 3 Gran Premio Hipodromo Chile over 1 3/8 miles, and had no
difficulty shortening up to 1 1/8 miles for his “Win & You’re In” race, the June
27 Copa de Oro at Club Hipico de Santiago. Tracking the leader through honest
splits, he rallied on the inside down the stretch and was already well on top at
the mile mark in 1:34 3/5. The final furlong was a formality as he finished in
1:46 4/5. Bronzo has a history of running well fresh, and his Chilean form has a
toehold in the U.S. already. Turco Bravo, a distant second in the aforementioned
Gran Premio Hipodromo Chile, was a close third to onetime Dirt Mile candidate
Valid in the October 11 Eight Miles West in his U.S. premiere at Gulfstream Park
West (the rebranded Calder). On a more tangential note, Bronzo’s broodmare sire,
Chilean champion Memo, successfully transitioned to a California-based career in
the early 1990s.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
OSAILA has competed in perhaps the two most productive races in this division
all year, finishing fifth to Cursory Glance in both the June 20 Albany at Royal
Ascot and the September 14 Moyglare Stud at the Curragh. The Albany’s roster
also included the likes of Sunset Glow (the Albany runner-up and Juvenile
Fillies Turf rival), Malabar, and Alcibiades winner Peace and War, while
Moyglare alumnae Lucida, Found, and Qualify all emphasized the strength in depth
by capturing their next start in Group stakes. Although Osaila hasn’t succeeded
among the heavyweights, she has flashed quality. The Richard Hannon filly was
second to a front-running winner on soft ground at Nottingham in her June 4
unveiling, and ran respectably as a maiden in the Albany. The odds-on favorite
next out versus colts in a Doncaster novice July 17, she delivered a telling
turn of foot to score by three emphatic lengths. Osaila was a little less
straightforward nine days later in the Princess Margaret back at Ascot,
wandering to her right while asserting. Up in trip to seven furlongs for the
Moyglare, she stalked and stayed on, but couldn’t quite match her leading
rivals’ finishing speed. Although the best on paper going in to the lucrative
Tattersalls Millions Two-Year-Old Fillies’ Trophy October 4, she had to work
harder than expected to see off a challenge. That confirmed the impression from
the Moyglare that the daughter of Danehill Dancer already wants more ground. The
two-turn mile at Santa Anita, however, might not present the stiffer test she
needs at this point. She will perform up to a high level, but could find another
filly a trifle quicker. The 220,000gns Tattersalls October yearling is bred to
go farther, as a full sister to Group 3 scorer Obama Rule, winner of the 1
1/8-mile Dance Design in 2010. Osaila’s dam is a three-quarter sister to 1994
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe victor Carnegie, and her second dam is 1980 Arc
heroine Detroit.
QUALIFY comes off a career high in the September 28 Weld Park Stakes at the
Curragh, and the Aidan O’Brien filly is entitled to keep progressing. An April
22 foal, she is also bred to excel with maturity. Her dam, the Galileo mare
Perihelion, needed 12 1/2 furlongs to break her maiden and went on to finish
second in the 2008 Park Hill over an extended 1 3/4 miles. Perihelion hails from
the stout family of Workforce, Brian Boru, and Sea Moon, so the mating with
champion Australian sire Fastnet Rock gave the resulting foal, Qualify, a needed
dash of speed. Finishing well for fourth in a hot maiden at the Curragh June 27,
she tried the July 24 Silver Flash as a maiden and nearly sprang a front-running
upset. She was collared late by the smart duo of Jack Naylor (the eventual third
in the Marcel Boussac) and Agnes Stewart (subsequent winner of the May Hill and
second in the Fillies’ Mile). Qualify easily broke her maiden over Dundalk’s
Polytrack August 17, but the forward tactics didn’t pan out as well in the
August 24 Debutante, where she tired to fifth, or the September 14 Moyglare
Stud, where she faded to sixth in a loaded renewal. Handled patiently instead in
the Weld Park, Qualify ratified the new closing tactics by drawing off to a
three-length verdict in a fast time. All of her races so far have come at seven
furlongs, but the two-turn mile on fast ground should be right in her
wheelhouse. We would have put her on top if she hadn’t been sandbagged by post
14, but at least she can benefit from the craftiness of Ryan Moore.
SIVOLIERE had something to recommend her even before she picked up Hall of
Fame comebacker Gary Stevens. The blueblood daughter of Sea the Stars and Grade
3-placed stakes winner Sefroua, whose second dam is Coronation Stakes winner
Sophisticat and whose third dam is Hall of Famer Serena’s Song, clearly needs
better ground to be competitive. Initially trained by Jean-Claude Rouget in
France, she hit top gear in the final furlong to take her April 22 debut
convincingly at Maisons-Laffitte. She won at the same venue in front-running
style with ears pricked May 17, but disappointed on very soft ground in
Longchamp’s Prix Roland de Chambure July 13. Back on good ground for the
Criterium du Bequet at the provincial La Teste de Buch, Sivoliere was a
different proposition, storming up the inside with an action made for a fast
surface. She was again hampered by very soft going in the August 23 Prix du
Calvados at Deauville, but still gamely tried to close in third. Both of those
losses also came at seven furlongs, but given her pedigree, there’s no reason to
think they were anything but ground-influenced. Now owned by Martin Schwartz and
trained by Chad Brown, Sivoliere has earned a vote of confidence from her new
team to try this race in her U.S. debut.
PRIZE EXHIBIT has connections in common with Classic hopeful Toast of New
York, but she’s more than a traveling companion. Withdrawn from this week’s
Tattersalls Autumn Horses in Training Sale, the Jamie Osborne filly has been
sold privately and will remain stateside with Jim Cassidy. She brings a lot of
experience with eight starts under her belt, her last three in stakes. Her hot
freshman sire Showcasing peaked at two, and her family is responsible for
precocious types, so this figures to be her apogee. Short of room when fourth on
debut, and a gallant second next time after running off loose prior to the race,
she romped by nine lengths when adding headgear over Lingfield’s Polytrack third
time out. Prize Exhibit found 132 pounds too much in a Newmarket nursery
(handicap for two-year-olds) August 2, but finished a solid fourth of 17, and
rebounded with another nine-length rout on the Nottingham turf August 12. Her
unplaced efforts in the September 4 Dick Poole Fillies’ Stakes (rallying after
being carried and altering course) and September 20 Firth of Clyde (racing on
the unfavorable part of a course that clearly had a stands’ side bias) are both
better than they appear at a superficial glance. In her first try at seven
furlongs in the October 4 Oh So Sharp at Newmarket, Prize Exhibit relished the
added ground by staying on strongly late for third, missing by only a neck.
Another furlong should help, but she’s got to pick up a bit more quickly. Post
13 doesn’t advance her cause.
WAR ALERT is second on the also-eligible list, and the Qatar Racing
colorbearer doesn’t have a persuasive resume. Her wins have come in a Windsor
maiden and a Bath nursery, and she was fifth in her only stakes try in the Firth
of Clyde, hanging left into the less advantageous part of the course. The
daughter of War Front has some upside as a nicely-bred 270,000gns Tattersalls
breeze-up purchase this spring, but she hasn’t taken up any of her earlier
big-race entries. As with Juvenile Turf also-eligible Faithful Creek, War Alert
has an alternative entry in Saturday’s Juvenile Turf Sprint.
Distaff
L’AMOUR DE MA VIE surprisingly listed her first preference here, rather than
the Filly & Mare Turf, and stuck with the decision at the final entry stage.
Bred by the late Prince Saud bin Khaled’s Palides Investments N V — the breeder
of two-time Distaff champ and three-time Eclipse Award winner Royal Delta — she
was sold as part of his dispersal for just $30,000 as an unraced two-year-old at
Keeneland November. Although by renowned turf sire Dansili, she is the first
foal from the dirt sprinter Cuaba, a Smoke Glacken mare who was second in both
the 2007 Gallant Bloom and Winning Colors. L’Amour de Ma Vie got a late start to
her racing career as a four-year-old, but she has climbed the class ladder in a
hurry. The Pia Brandt trainee ended 2013 with two taking performances on
Deauville’s Fibresand. Making a big move circling the field on the extreme
outside in the Prix Lyphard, she ended up near the stands’ side rail and still
lost by only 1 1/2 lengths to the well-regarded colt Smoking Sun (best known to
American fans for flopping in this summer’s Arlington Million). L’Amour de Ma
Vie had a much better trip next time in the Prix Miss Satamixa, drawn on the
inside and rallying powerfully for her first stakes score. The big gray then
made waves on turf in the Dubai Carnival, finishing a bang-up second to champion
comebacker Certify in the January 30 Cape Verdi before capturing the February 20
Balanchine, turning the tables on Certify. The Balanchine runner-up was Flotilla
(the 2012 BC Juvenile Fillies Turf and 2013 French 1000 Guineas star), who
flattered the form when a subsequent third to South African supremo Variety Club
in the Godolphin Mile. L’Amour de Ma Vie disappointed in the March 8 Jebel Hatta
and was not seen again until Royal Ascot, where she was an outstanding second to
course record-breaker Integral in the one-mile Duke of Cambridge. Her ensuing
two starts — a last of four in a tactical farce in the August 3 Prix Rothschild
on soft ground at Deauville and a messy-trip ninth, again on rain-softened
going, versus males in the September 28 Premio Vittorio di Capua at Milan —
should not be held against her. She’s a speculative chance in the Distaff, but
this year’s edition is starting to look a little more open at the moment.
VALIANT EMILIA earned her spot here in light of the Breeders’ Cup’s desire
for geographical diversity in the “Win & You’re In” events. Thus a Peruvian mare
has secured an automatic berth to a 1 1/8-mile championship at Santa Anita by
winning a 1 1/4-mile Group 3 affair, the Cesar del Rio Suito, at Monterrico. The
only prior Breeders’ Cup contestant to represent Peru, Almudena, was unplaced in
the 2012 Marathon, and it strains the imagination to see Valiant Emilia
performing much better. To be fair, she was a progressive type at home earlier
this year, and she apparently put aside her tendency to race on her left lead in
her Breeders’ Cup Challenge race on June 22, keeping to her correct right lead
for virtually the whole stretch. Valiant Emilia’s victory also looks solid in
terms of Peruvian form, since the second and third, Shakita and Azarenka, had
filled those same spots in the prestigious Gran Premio Asociacion
Latinoamericana. That’s more than just a continent apart from the caliber of
competition in the Distaff, however, and this short-actioned, one-paced grinder
looks in over her head.