Breeders’ Cup Turf

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF (G1),
9TH-SA, $3,000,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/2MT, 6:22PM, 11-1

by Kellie Reilly

The Breeders’ Cup Turf might have lost its defending champion in Magician, but it’s still
packed with star power. Given the quality of the Europeans’ depth chart compared
to ours, the 1 1/2-mile prize looks destined to travel across the Atlantic yet
again. The most pressing handicapping task is to identify the likeliest European
to do the honors, and one name rises over the horizon.

1ST — TELESCOPE simply annihilated them in the June 21 Hardwicke at Royal
Ascot, amply justifying the hype that has long enveloped him. If he can even
come close to duplicating that effort in similar conditions, no one in this
field could live with him. The Sir Michael Stoute colt was a onetime antepost
favorite for the 2013 Epsom Derby, only to have his sophomore campaign bedeviled
by injury. He did manage to make the Great Voltigeur last summer, and his fluent
victory hinted that he was at his best going 1 1/2 miles on quick ground.
Telescope didn’t get those conditions again until his third start off the layoff
in the Hardwicke, where he romped by seven lengths from stablemate Hillstar (the
eventual winner of the Canadian International). The son of Galileo hasn’t gotten
those conditions in his two ensuing starts, but still turned in honorable
efforts in defeat. On ground with a little more give than he likes in the July
26 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth back at Ascot, he was best of the rest
behind Oaks heroine Taghrooda (later third in the Arc). In the August 20
Juddmonte International at York, Telescope loved the firmish going, but couldn’t
quite cope with the shorter 1 5/16-mile trip, and deferred to all-star
sophomores Australia and The Grey Gatsby.

Connections resisted the lure of the Arc, and Stoute methodically mapped his
way to Santa Anita, where Telescope will have his optimal working environment.
Brilliant jockey Ryan Moore will have also worked out a game plan from his rail
post. With his useful tactical speed, Telescope figures to be stalking early
before delivering the coup de grace. He could give the Stoute/Moore tandem a
huge double following stablemate Dank in the Filly & Mare Turf.

2ND — FLINTSHIRE, most recently runner-up to history-making Treve in the
Arc, has a hefty stat in his favor. Arc losers have come back later in the fall
to win this race no fewer than nine times (including Miss Alleged, who
ran in the 1991 Washington D.C. International in between). From the
ever-dangerous Andre Fabre yard, Flintshire has yet to finish out of the top two
on his preferred good ground. His resume includes a victory in last year’s Grand
Prix de Paris as well as a second to the venerable Cirrus des Aigles in the June
7 Coronation Cup at Epsom. The Juddmonte homebred promises to perform right up
to his best here, and would be an eminently logical winner. We can’t escape the
feeling, though, that he might lack the panache of a Telescope in full flight.

3RD — CHICQUITA perhaps should have come here straight off her 15th in the
Arc (from post 18), but the $8 million Goffs purchase is too talented to ignore.
To be sure, the daughter of Montjeu has mad quirks to go along with her ability,
and we wouldn’t be surprised to see either the best or worst of her here. She
has a penchant for veering toward the grandstand, and as an equal-opportunity
wanderer, she has done this at both right- and left-handed tracks, for former
trainer Alain de Royer-Dupre as well as current trainer Aidan O’Brien. Second to
the mighty Treve in last year’s French Oaks, she nearly threw away the Irish
Oaks with this behavior, but held on to break her maiden. Chicquita arguably did
throw away her latest venture, the October 18 British Champions Fillies’ and
Mares’ at Ascot, and wound up third after her costly drift. Laboring on the
heavy going that day could have left its mark, and this does loom as an
afterthought. But she only recently returned from a 14-month layoff in
September, finishing a sharp second to the now-retired Tarfasha, so could be
comparatively fresher than most this time of year. And new rider Frankie Dettori could be just the forceful pilot she
needs to set, and keep her, straight.

OTHERS — MAIN SEQUENCE is the most accomplished of the American-based
runners, but HARDEST CORE is a
more attractive 10-1 for under-the-radar connections. The Eddie Graham charge
readily disposed of a subpar Magician in the August 16 Arlington Million,
begging the question of how he would have fared among the usual suspects in the
division’s other major races this summer and fall. Hardest Core was an emphatic
winner of Delaware’s Cape Henlopen in his only prior attempt at this distance,
and the up-and-comer could have still more scope to progress.

Main Sequence was thoroughly exposed during his former career in England.
Even allowing for the magnificent training job here by Graham Motion, and his
possibly benefiting from Lasix,
his Grade 1 hat trick since his repatriation could be read as an indictment of
the U.S. turf scene. His class relief on these shores has now ended, along with
his successful partnership with Rajiv Maragh (due to injury). Main Sequence picks up the services of Hall
of Famer John Velazquez, and he will be closing late. But he could also be an
underlay based on overvaluing of his U.S. record.

Likely pacesetter IMAGINING and TWILIGHT ECLIPSE haven’t figured out a way to
beat Main Sequence yet. BROWN PANTHER is a top-class English stayer, but could
find life difficult among 12-furlong specialists on a firm, turning course.
HANGOVER KID and the trio from the September 28 John Henry Turf Championship —
FINNEGANS WAKE, BIG JOHN B and STARSPANGLED HEAT — all look overmatched.