HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
JANUARY 1, 2015
by Dick Powell
Shared Belief’s (Candy Ride) narrow win in the Malibu Stakes (G1) at Santa
Anita last week was way better than it was given credit for. First of all, he
was turning back to the less-than-optimum distance of seven furlongs. Second of
all, the race had a strange pace scenario with the first quarter being run in
only 23.13 seconds.
I went back and looked up the first quarters of recent editions of the Malibu
on dirt and this year sticks out like a sore thumb. Last year’s Malibu featured
a first quarter in 21.66 seconds. In 2012, it was run in 22.74 seconds; in 2011,
it was run in 22.61; and the opening fraction was 22.72 seconds in 2010.
Third of all, and most importantly, Shared Belief raced in between horses for
almost the entire first five furlongs on the Malibu. He was in behind two
dueling leaders and had horses to his inside and outside. The outside horse kept
Mike Smith from getting to the outside for a clear stalking trip and because the
early pace was slow, the leaders were not coming back to him.
At no point did Shared Belief have traffic problems in the sense that Smith
had to tap on the breaks but it was not a clean trip by any means. Smith had to
bide his time and force his way out on the turn to mount his challenge. Running
19 and 21 feet farther than the second and third-place finishers, Shared Belief
forged to the lead and held off Conquest Two Step (Two Step Salsa) by a neck.
His final time for seven furlongs was 1:20.69 and he earned a BRIS Speed
rating of 107. For the start of his four-year-old campaign, Shared Belief could
not have gotten off to a better start. As the races get longer, he will only get
better and with the lone exception of the Breeders’ Cup Classic when he was
wiped out at the start, he has yet to do anything wrong on the track. Here’s to
the sophomore class of 2014 staying healthy in the New Year!
A couple of friends of mine were involved in purchasing Taris (Flatter) as a
yearling for $90,000. Twelve months ago, she broke her maiden at Aqueduct by 11
lengths and they made every move a correct one since then while the offers to
buy her came pouring in.
After romping by nine lengths in October’s Raven’s Run (G2) at Keeneland in
outrageous time, it was decided to enter her in the Fasig Tipton November Sale.
She was the hottest horse in the country at the time and when the bidding ended,
she sold for $2.35 million to trainer Simon Callaghan who was bidding on behalf
of the Coolmore Farm interests.
Every week horses run fast and someone is calling to see if they are for
sale. Not all offers are legitimate but putting them in the sales ring provides
a final reality as to what the market thinks the horse is worth. The original
owners of Taris are to be commended to hold on to her long enough to increase
her value and then sell her when they did.
It sounds good to hold on to your horse but there are risks involved. Taris
made her first start for her new owners in the La Brea (G1), two races before
the Malibu at the same distance of seven furlongs. She broke a bit tardy and had
to be used hard to make the lead from her rail position. Her first quarter of
21.85 seconds doesn’t truly indicate how much energy she had to use.
With a half-mile in 43.97 seconds, Taris and new rider Rafael Bejarano were
all in and there was no slowing down to catch a breather. Around the turn she
screamed and into the stretch she still held on grimly to the lead. Amazingly,
she began to separate away from the pack chasing her with a furlong to go and it
looked like Taris was going to make her grade one stakes debut a winning one.
But in the last 100 yards, she shortened stride noticeably and was run down
in the shadow of the wire by Sam’s Sister (Brother Derek) in 1:22.52. After the
race, it was discovered that Taris had suffered a nondisplaced condylar fracture
and would be out for the first half of the season.
The racing season ended in Japan with the Arima Kinen (Jpn-G1), a race where
the voting public gets to decide who runs in it. Run at 1 9/16 miles at Nakayama
Racecourse in front of 115,878 people, it attracted a sensational field of
Japan’s best runners.
Not the betting favorite, but, certainly, the sentimental favorite, was
Gentildonna (Deep Impact). Winner of back to back Japan Cups in 2012 and 2013
and this year’s Sheema Classic in Dubai, she was sent off as the 7.7-to-1 fourth
betting choice. Gentildonna broke second in the big field of 16 by JRA’s leading
rider Keita Tosaki and raced in third place for most of the race before making
her move approaching the end of the final turn.
Nakayama has a very short homestretch and Gentildonna pounced early. She
seized command and never really looked to be in trouble nearing the finish. Her
win margin was three parts of a length and Gentildonna now goes to the breeding
shed with 9 wins in 17 starts and earnings of more than $18 million. Nearly all
of her earnings the last two seasons came against males and after the races,
40,000 fans stayed around for her retirement ceremony.
As I have written before, Sunday Silence was rejected by American breeders
when he retired and wound up going to stud in Japan. In a country where most of
the big races are at least 1 1/2 miles, he was the perfect fit and began a
dynasty that still goes on after his death.
In the Arima Kinen, 14 of the 16 runners were sired by his sons or grandsons.
Seven were sired by his best son, Deep Impact, who is now the world’s leading
sire based on various categories.
Deep Impact would have been rejected by American breeders as well since he
not only won numerous times at 1 1/2 miles but even won going 3200 meters
(approximately two miles). In the United States, where we moan about our horses
not being able to get distances and many races being shortened in distance, we
still breed to seven-furlong speedballs that prolifically produce precocious and
unsound runners.