HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
FEBRUARY 6, 2015
by Dick Powell
This Saturday, we get what we wished for as the two best three-year-olds from
last year meet in the San Antonio Invitational Stakes (G2) going nine furlongs
at Santa Anita.
Horse of the Year California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit), winner of
the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1) last year, takes on Shared
Belief (Candy Ride), who was undefeated in his first seven career starts before
being wiped out at the start of the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
Fortunately, few of last year’s strong crop of three-year-olds went to stud
and the end result is a strong group of four-year-olds that could make this year
very interesting in the handicap division. And, even though Breeders’ Cup
Classic winner Bayern (Offlee Wild) did not make the San Antonio party, he’ll be
replaced by stablemate Hoppertunity (Any Given Saturday), who won the Clark
Handicap (G1) to finish up last year.
With the publicity California Chrome received during his Triple Crown quest,
it’s great to have him back racing and the way the early season schedule worked
out, he is on the same path as Shared Belief to bigger and better things. It
might lead to the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) or the $10 million Dubai World Cup
(UAE-G1) that is back on dirt. All we can hope for is they get through
Saturday’s San Antonio fit and healthy and go on to a long, prosperous season.
Hoppertunity is not a horse to ignore. He won the Rebel Stakes (G2) at
Oaklawn Park last March then was second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) behind
California Chrome. The Bob Baffert-trainee went to the sidelines for almost six
months before returning with a second going seven furlongs and followed with
victory in the Clark Handicap (G1) at Churchill Downs. It might not have been a
vintage renewal of the Clark, but he came back seven weeks later at Santa Anita
to win the San Pasqual Stakes (G2) going 1 1/16 miles in decent time last out.
I think Shared Belief lays over this field no matter how deep and talented it
is. His win in the Malibu Stakes (G1) on opening day was brilliant and he should
be set up for this race perfectly. He’s been training nice and steady on the
Tapeta at Golden Gate for Jerry Hollendorfer and gets the perfect post position
for a stalking trip with Mike Smith.
If you are looking for a longshot, consider Alfa Bird (Birstone). He tried
two turns for the first time at Del Mar, winning on the front end, and then led
gate to wire at Santa Anita going nine furlongs in decent time. He has strong
early speed and should get an aggressive ride from Tyler Baze, who will have no
choice to send him from the outside.
By Birdstone, Alfa Bird is out of a dam by Vindication that is a half-sister
to the Grade 1-winning, multi-millionaire Golden Missile. He has dangerous speed
and the look of a horse that is improving at the right time.
The Donn Handicap (G1) at Gulfstream Park might not have the star power of
the San Antonio but it features an evenly-matched field of 10. Todd Pletcher is
taking no chances with three entries.
From the rail, Pletcher sends out last year’s Florida Derby (G1) winner
Constitution (Tapit). Missing the Triple Crown, he returned with a dull fourth
against allowance foes before running much better in the Clark, leading to the
final furlong before weakening. From the rail with Javier Castellano, he should
be tough to beat in here.
Next to Constitution is Pletcher’s Commissioner (A.P. Indy), who almost
pulled off the shocker when he led every step but the last in the Belmont
Stakes, outperforming California Chrome before being nailed by Tonalist (Tapit).
Commissioner was off for seven months before returning to Gulfstream Park last
month where he was beaten a neck going 1 1/16 miles in good time. He should
improve by leaps and bounds and picks up Johnny Velazquez.
Pletcher’s other runner is Protonico (Giant’s Causeway), who won the
Discovery Handicap (G3) at Aqueduct before just missing in the Clark against
older horses. He will be off the pace but that has not been the kiss of death it
used to be at this meet going two turns.
Bill Mott sends out the defending champion in Lea (First Samurai) and just
like last year, he comes into the Donn off a win in the Hal’s Hope (G3). He was
brilliant last year when he raced up on the pace in fast fractions and should be
able to stalk the inside speed from here with Joel Rosario. The only thing not
to like about him is the short price.
A long price could be had on Sloane Avenue (Candy Ride). He ships in from
Great Britain and lost both times on the turf; both there and when he shipped to
America for the Hill Prince Stakes (G3) last October. But, he’s three for three
on synthetic tracks and sports an American dirt pedigree being by Shared
Belief’s sire, Candy Ride, out of a dam by A.P. Indy that has produced Grade 3
stakes winner Carve and she is a half-sister to Breeders’ Cup Classic winner
Blame.
Pool Two of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager will be open this weekend. Makes
no sense playing it early so wait for the Withers Stakes (G3) and Robert Lewis
Stakes (G2) to be run before participating.
The only horse I will play in this weekend’s pool is Imperia (Medaglia
D’Oro). I thought he should have won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) with
any room in the stretch and his narrow loss in his dirt debut at Churchill Downs
in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) was exceptional. He’s bred for dirt and
distance and his 30-to-1 morning line should hold up since he won’t be racing
this weekend.
All I want from Imperia is to make to the starting gate on the first Saturday
in May. If I get 30-to-1 odds on a $100 bet, I then have $3,000 that I can hedge
against. It would help if he is one of the choices in the Derby since it makes
it easier to hedge the rest of the field.