KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
APRIL 1, 2015
by James Scully
The first round of major final prep races is in the books, with favorites
International Star (Fusaichi Pegasus) and Mubtaahij (Dubawi) capturing the
Louisiana Derby (G2) and U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2), respectively, and 9-5 second
choice Materiality (Afleet Alex) extending his mark to three-for-three in the
Florida Derby (G1).
Anticipation runs even higher for this Saturday’s races as top contenders
square off in the Blue Grass (G1), Santa Anita Derby (G1) and TwinSpires.com
Wood Memorial (G1).
Florida Derby
Materiality is an up-and-coming colt with good speed. He broke well in the
Florida Derby, racing on the front end with a longshot before asserting control
entering the far turn, and took everything the well-regarded Upstart (Flatter)
had to offer before edging away late to a 1 1/2-length decision.
Over a slow and tiring Gulfstream Park track, the bay colt registered 103 E1
and 115 E2 Pace numbers en route to an excellent 105 BRIS Speed rating. And
Upstart posted a 103 Speed while finishing 12 1/2 lengths clear of third. The
final time (1:52.30) is misleading given the way the track was playing.
It was a grueling performance for the top two finishers, one they’ll need to
keep moving forward from while stretching out another eighth of a mile five
weeks later, but Materiality and Upstart will at least exit an encouraging
performance as opposed to Itsaknockout (Lemon Drop Kid), who stamped his
Kentucky Derby ticket winning the February 21 Fountain of Youth (G2) via
disqualification but never fired in a dismal fourth-place showing Saturday,
beaten 21 lengths.
Materiality didn’t make his career bow until January 11, easily winning a
six-furlong maiden special weight in the slop by 4 1/4 lengths, and was
freshened nearly two months in advance of his next appearance, rolling to a 5
3/4-length win in the March 6 Islamorada at 1 1/8 miles. He came back only three
weeks later in the Florida Derby, a quick turnaround for a Todd Pletcher
trainee, and received the first real test in his brief career.
The unbeaten colt has never lost ground in the stretch, increasing his margin
at the last two calls in every start, and Materiality owns a nice set of BRIS
Speed figures (96-100-105) as well as a commendable pedigree for 10 furlongs.
But he’s also had things his own way most of the time and rates as a prime
candidate for a regression at Churchill Downs.
Lightly-raced horses with no two-year-old foundation have a terrible record
in the Kentucky Derby. Foundation is important given the extreme demands of the
1 1/4-mile race early in a horse’s three-year-old season.
I’ve said previously that an unraced juvenile will eventually win the
Kentucky Derby, especially in this era of lightly-raced horses, but that
individual needs to be able to overwhelm the competition (think of the field Big
Brown was facing in 2008). That scenario appears highly unlikely for Materiality
this year given the talent at the top.
Materiality remains a highly-promising individual, one that must be
considered a prime contender for important future races such as the Belmont
Stakes (G1), Haskell Invitational (G1) and Travers (G1), but the fact that he’s
never raced outside of Gulfstream hurts his chances as well. The Kentucky Derby is not
the spot to try something new and it should come as no surprise that every
winner in the modern era raced at multiple venues beforehand — experience
matters.
I liked Upstart entering the year and jumped on the bandwagon following his
convincing win in the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull (G2) in late January, but his last
two performances have left something to be desired. And I’m doubting his ability
to stretch out effectively next time.
Upstart opened his racing career with flashy wins in a pair of Saratoga
sprints, including a career-best 106 BRIS Speed rating for the restricted Funny
Cide at 6 1/2 furlongs. That’s not something you want to see, a Kentucky Derby
contender run his fastest race sprinting at age two, and the presence of
champion sprinter Housebuster as the second damsire is probably more pronounced
than I originally wanted to believe.
Upstart steadily lost ground over the final five-sixteenths of a mile in the
Florida Derby, laboring mightily in the latter stages. He’s still a talented
colt who would be tough to ignore if the Kentucky Derby was at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8
miles, but I can’t envision him thriving on the stretch out.
Third-place Ami’s Flatter (Flatter) has quality concerns but the stoutly-bred
sophomore can’t be ruled out of Kentucky Derby exotics consideration due to his
finishing kick, with late-running longshots Commanding Curve and Golden Soul
finishing second the last two years behind hot early paces.
Didn’t like the decision to run Itsaknockout in the Florida Derby given that
he had raced exclusively at Gulfstream and the colt appeared to get very little
out of the race. He could still have a nice future, but difficult to imagine him
being ready for his best on May 2.
Louisiana Derby
International Star’s ability to corner well on the far turn could prove
beneficial in the Kentucky Derby. He launched another eye-catching move in the
Louisiana Derby, accelerating past rivals along the rail before swinging out for
the stretch drive, and determinedly ran down the pacesetting Stanford (Malibu
Moon) to win by a neck.
He wasn’t facing the stiffest opposition all year at the New Orleans oval,
and his BRIS Class rating Saturday (119.8) paled in comparison to Materiality’s
Florida Derby (122.4), but International Star’s improving form for Mike Maker is
easy to admire.
The son of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus had never won on dirt
before this season, breaking his maiden on Belmont Park’s turf and capturing the
Grey (G3) on Woodbine’s Polytrack last year, and he’s moved forward in each
start since opening 2015 with a victory in the Lecomte (G3), posting BRIS Speed
ratings of 94-97-99.
His 99 Louisiana Derby figure was compromised by a moderate early pace that
didn’t play to his strengths. International Star laid it all on the line while
switching back to the wrong lead in deep stretch, registering an impressive 107
BRIS Late Pace number given the early fractions, and the hard-trying colt is
extremely game.
He may not be good enough to win on the class hike, but International Star
figures to receive the right set-up in the Kentucky Derby and I’ll include the
fast-finishing colt underneath in exotics.
Stanford turned in a big performance in his first Kentucky Derby qualifying
race and the improving colt will bring speed to the first leg of the Triple
Crown.
He’s bred for longer distances, but the Pletcher charge has recorded his lone
wins at five furlongs (maiden) and six furlongs (February allowance/optional
claimer). His ability to get away to an uncontested early advantage led to a
career-best performance in the Louisiana Derby, but different circumstances next
time could easily compromise his chances. I’ll look for more down the road from
the promising runner.
War Story (2.40-1) nearly went favored over International Star ( 2.30-1) but
supporters hoping to see him put it all together came away deeply disappointed.
He never threatened recording a well-beaten third, a step back from respectable
runner-up efforts in the Lecomte and Risen Star (G2).
I’ve seen nothing that suggests a turnaround for the gelding in the Kentucky
Derby — War Story has now lost ground to International Star in the stretch of
three straight races — and he’s a bad actor in the starting gate, which won’t
help his chances in a 20-horse field.
The moderate pace didn’t benefit fourth-placer Keen Ice (Curlin) but his
inability to make up any ground on the far turn was the most disappointing facet
of his performance. The deep closer only passes rivals after straightening into
the stretch and that recipe doesn’t work in the Kentucky Derby — Keen Ice would
need to be accelerating into contention on the final bend to have even a
puncher’s chance at a minor award.
U.A.E. Derby
I tabbed U.A.E. Derby winner Mubtaahij as a serious contender in a blog I
wrote for TwinSpires.com earlier this week (click
here for my analysis) and will reiterate one key point: Mubtaahij does not
resemble any of the false contenders that shipped over previously from Dubai.
Previous Dubai horses were either too lightly-raced and/or ill-equipped to
handle the 1 1/4-mile distance, but trainer Michael De Kock hasn’t followed the
failed playbook employed by conditioners Aidan O’Brien and Saaed bin Suroor in
past years.
Since breaking his maiden on December 31, Mubtaahij has raced four more times
on Meydan’s dirt track. The colt upped the ante in every start, narrowly
dropping his stakes debut at a mile before posting a comfortable 2 1/2-length
decision over the well-regarded Sir Fever (Texas Fever) in the March 7 Al
Baskiya at 1 3/16 miles.
He continued to improve while stepping up to face deeper company at the same
distance last Saturday, offering an outstanding turn of foot to take a
commanding lead by midstretch before being taken under wraps through the final
furlong of an eight-length decision. Mubtaahij is peaking at the right time for
a dangerous trainer and faces a 1 1/4-mile trip that he should relish — he will
certainly change the narrative regarding Dubai shippers (who are dismissed
outright by many handicappers) if able to challenge our best three-year-olds on
dirt.
Mubtaahij will be one to follow once he gets to Churchill Downs — his stock
figures to keep rising if he trains forwardly under the Twin Spires.
Upcoming
The California region is arguably much deeper than the rest of the country
and Dortmund (Big Brown) will headline a strong Santa Anita Derby field that
includes Prospect Park (Tapit), Bolo (Temple City) and One Lucky Dane (Lookin at
Lucky). This grouping could play a serious part in the Kentucky Derby outcome.
Carpe Diem (Giant’s Causeway) is listed as the even-money favorite over seven
rivals in the Blue Grass at Keeneland and his affinity for the oval — romped by
6 1/4 lengths in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) last fall — is an advantage. He
figures to be tighter for his second start back and I want to see improvement
from a speed-figure perspective given that Carpe Diem earned only a 96 BRIS
Speed rating for a most facile Tampa Bay Derby (G2) win. Grade 3 hero Ocho Ocho
Ocho (Street Sense) is looking to rebound from a troubled effort in his 2015 bow
and brings excellent speed to the mix. The rest of the field, including Classy
Class (Discreetly Mine), Danzig Moon (Malibu Moon) and Frammento (Midshipman),
are all either maiden or allowance winners only.
The TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial lost a key contender when Far From Over
(Blame), who hadn’t raced since early February, was removed from consideration
Tuesday due to an injury. That leaves Gotham (G3) and Jerome (G3) scorer El
Kabeir (Scat Daddy) as the one to beat at Aqueduct. His main foes are expected
to include Daredevil (More Than Ready), Frosted (Tapit) and Tiz Shea D (Tiznow).