KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
APRIL 15, 2015
by James Scully
American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) established himself as the probable
Kentucky Derby favorite with a masterful performance in Saturday’s Arkansas
Derby (G1), romping by eight lengths.
The win margin appeared misleading — jockey Victor Espinoza took a strong
hold of the reins well before the finish line, as if to say “let’s save
something for Louisville big guy” — and American Pharoah will bring a superstar
aura to the starting gate at Churchill Downs.
Saturday’s Lexington (G3) at Keeneland also served as a qualifier, but the
winning Divining Rod (Tapit) has been taken out of Kentucky Derby consideration
by his connections.
Arkansas Derby
American Pharoah continued to amaze with the ease and superiority of his
victory; despite any pedigree concerns that may exist on paper, he didn’t look
like a three-year-old who will have any difficulty stretching out to 1 1/4 miles
on May 2.
Circumstances figure to be different given the quality of competition and
amount of speed lining up for the Kentucky Derby, but American Pharoah could
have more to offer as well — any way you slice it, his presence makes the
Kentucky Derby exciting.
For the first time since breaking his maiden in the Del Mar Futurity (G1),
American Pharoah was outhustled to the early lead in the Arkansas Derby. He
settled perfectly in second, about three lengths back rounding the first turn as
Bridget’s Big Luvy (Tiz Wonderful) sprinted forward to show the way through fast
early fractions of :22 3/5 and :45 4/5.
American Pharoah effortlessly moved to the fore midway on the far turn and
entered the stretch drive full of run, ears pricked as he gobbled up ground with
long strides.
As trainer Bob Baffert noted, American Pharoah proved he could sit off the
action if a crazy pace duel develops up front in the Kentucky Derby.
He’s got a lot going for him.
I was a little disappointed to see him finish up slower than the winning Race
Day (Tapit) in the Oaklawn H. (G2) earlier on the program and American Pharoah
won’t lay over the competition with a last-race BRIS Speed rating of 102 — that
ties him for sixth with Carpe Diem (Giant’s Causeway), barring any more
withdrawals from the prospective Kentucky Derby field.
But, as mentioned previously, there’s a consensus that American Pharoah will
continue to run faster and faster — he appears to be an equine athlete of the
highest order.
I addressed pedigree concerns surrounding his female family after the Rebel
Stakes win on March 14 and don’t want to revisit that ground today — there is
still plenty of time to break down the strengths and weaknesses of the
contenders. And the disclaimer still holds true: American Pharoah wouldn’t be
the first Kentucky Derby winner to outrun suspect bloodlines for 1 1/4 miles.
I came away highly impressed with American Pharoah’s Arkansas Derby and last
year’s champion two-year-old will bring plenty of momentum into the main event.
Far Right (Notional) edged a badly tiring Mr. Z (Malibu Moon) to be best of
the rest. Given his late running style and the possibly of a hot/contested pace,
he’ll offer some exotics appeal to bettors, but it’s difficult for me to look
past his dismal Speed ratings this year (93-93-92).
Mr. Z earned a spot in the Kentucky Derby field finishing third, but his best
races came last season and he appears terribly suited for longer distances.
Upcoming
The prep races are over and I’ll take a closer look at the Kentucky Derby
field next week before previewing the race on April 30.
Here’s a link to my
BRIS Speed ratings blog (at
TwinSpires.com/blog) for the 2015 Kentucky Derby contenders.