HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
MAY 22, 2015
by Dick Powell
Preakness (G1) 140 is in the books and American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile)
is on the verge of immortality. With his convincing seven-length win, American
Pharoah now goes to the Belmont Stakes (G1) with the best shot of becoming
American Thoroughbred racing’s 12th winner of the Triple Crown. He is head and
shoulders above his competition.
With about 10 minutes to go before post time, a line of thunderstorms swept
through the Pimlico area of Maryland. Many of us have apps on our smartphones
that show Doppler radar and you could see that that there was no avoiding the
bad weather that was coming. And it wasn’t just rain but severe thunderstorms
with lightning.
I was at the Kentucky Oaks (G1) years ago when in response to a severe
weather alert, the horses for the Oaks were sent back to their barns from the
paddock and the infield was evacuated. On Saturday, nothing of the sort
happened. Despite every indication that severe was weather was about to hit,
Pimlico management did little. They tried to get people in the infield under
cover but the race went on like nothing happened.
All but two of the horses saddled inside with only two out on the turf
course. The jockeys were not prepared so none wore rain pants or had the right
rainy weather equipment with them. They mounted their horses under torrential
rainfall. It looked like the inside part of the track might wash away and you
couldn’t help but wonder how American Pharoah was going to negotiate the wettest
part of the track.
Thunder, lightning, torrential rain and high wind pelted Pimlico but the show
went on in a reckless, dangerous decision. Seeing that the line of storms would
pass through the area with nothing behind them, how could you not send the
horses to the indoor saddling area, wait out the bad weather, and then send the
tractors once around the track to make sure the surface was safe?
Luckily for American Pharoah, he raced over a sloppy track in the Rebel
Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park so this was not a new surface for him. Victor
Espinoza gunned him from post 1 and he was able to maintain his position going
into the clubhouse turn. Firing Line (Line of David), overbet at 3-to-1,
stumbled in his second stride out of the gate and was effectively out of the
race. Mr. Z (Malibu Moon) gunned from the gate with Corey Nakatani but to his
credit, he never tightened things up for American Pharoah.
Espinoza kept the pedal down through a first quarter in 22.90 seconds and
only after putting some distance between himself and Mr. Z, did he ease up a bit
and settle. There was no telling how the track inundated with rain would play
but you could see that American Pharoah was having no trouble grabbing a hold of
it.
After a half-mile in 46.49 seconds, Espinoza looked like he gave American
Pharoah a breather going into the far turn and his pursuers closed the gap.
Dortmund (Big Brown) moved up outside of Mr. Z on the far turn and Divining Rod
(Tapit) made a move on the inside of those two and looked like he might put some
pressure on American Pharoah.
As they neared the top of the stretch, Espinoza let it out a notch and the
race was over. American Pharoah, even though the pace was slowing down, was
pulling away effortlessly. Divining Rod, who I needed for second in a big, cold
exacta underneath the winner, could not hang on for second as Tale of Verve
(Tale of Ekati) rallied from last to get up for second and complete a $124.40
exacta.
Typical of races conducted under weather conditions like this, many in the
race finished up the track. There is nothing you can do when it rains like it
did. But, the race could have easily been postponed for 20 to 30 minutes to make
sure that it was run under the safest conditions.
After the race, Gary Stevens said that he weighed 135 pounds without his
helmet. Victor Espinoza poured water out of his riding boots up on the podium
for the trophy presentation. Had they had rain pants on that go over the boot
down to their feet, they would not be riding with boots full of rain in
lightning.
And as dangerous as it was for the jockeys, can you imagine poor Donna
Brothers on her pony out on the track with all that electronic equipment on her?
Now we go on to Belmont for another run at the Triple Crown. The question
that needs to be answered is how well American Pharoah came out of the race and
what will he have left three weeks from now? For a horse that has some physical
issues that were serious enough for him to miss last year’s Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile (G1) and forced him into a late start to his three-year-old campaign,
can he recover quick enough to go 1 1/2 miles on a track that is often tiring if
dry, against a field with many fresh horses?
All that will work itself out in time but after the Derby and Preakness,
there is no doubt who the best three-year-old is at this point.
A random act of journalism broke out during the NBC Preakness coverage.
During the walkover from the barn area to be saddled, Carolyn Manno was
interviewing Dortmund’s owner Kaleem Shah. When Shah talked about how Dortmund
was doing and how good horses tend to beat each other, Shah said, “This one
would be for my dad.”
Manno, instead of going on to the next question, actually listened to Shah
and said, “Tell us why.” Shah then explained how his father was a top trainer in
India, won the Triple Crown there and that lately he has not been doing well and
he hoped that Dortmund would come through for him.
True story: two of my four grandchildren live next door to me and I see them
every day. On Preakness Day, I was busy with betting and watching the races and
did not see them. The next day, I asked my grandson did you watch the horse race
yesterday. The eight-year-old responded, “No. What am I 90 years old?”