HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
MAY 8, 2015
by Dick Powell
So what did we learn about American Pharoah (Pioneerof The Nile) from his win
in the Kentucky Derby (G1)? Was it good, very good or great? The answer will
determine how you handicap next one or two starts.
First, let’s realize that whatever happened to American Pharoah last fall
that cost him a start in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) was way more serious
that it was disclosed. He did not make his three-year-old debut until mid-March
and was on a tight schedule to be ready for last Saturday.
This is not the plan that Bob Baffert wanted but he played the hand that he
was dealt masterfully. The Rebel Stakes (G2) gave him a place to begin and the
Arkansas Derby (G1), only three weeks before the Derby, gave him enough
conditioning without knocking him out.
He went to Kentucky and had a brilliant workout the weekend before so Baffert
had him as good as he could get him. Training is not always hands-on
horsemanship, but the management decisions that need to be made and Baffert
batted a thousand. He produced his colt on Saturday in perfect shape and despite
breaking from an outside post, American Pharoah was able to race back to his two
preps and brilliant workouts.
Victor Espinoza is a flawless rider that is not intimidated by the big
moments. Last year, I picked California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) for second in the
Derby since I was afraid what would happen if he broke a step slow. But with
Espinoza, there was nothing to worry about and after breaking smartly, he bided
his time before blowing the race open at the top of the stretch.
This year, the main concern was the draw with American Pharoah originally
drawing post 18. Scratches brought him in a little but he was still way outside
the other speed horses in the field. I thought it was amazing that he went off
at nearly 3-to-1 odds and felt that he represented big value in the race. The
horse that I think was overbet was Baffert’s undefeated Dortmund (Big Brown) who
went off at 43-to-10.
At the start, Martin Garcia sent Dortmund to the front while Gary Stevens
took up the chase aboard Firing Line (Line of David). Materiality (Afleet Alex)
was left at the gate and at one point was 17th in the early going so he was not
part of the pace. Espinoza got American Pharoah away well and took up a position
three wide going into the clubhouse turn.
The Churchill Downs main track was very hard to figure out. It looked like it
was not watered for at least 90 minutes before the Derby but people I talked to
that were on it said it was surprisingly wet. The running times were relatively
slow so the early pace of :23.24 for the first quarter and :47.34 for the first
half was sensible. The trio of front-runners was going to dominate the race and
it was just a matter of which one was going to get the job done.
Espinoza was willing to lose ground to keep American Pharoah relaxed. He
bided his time at least four paths off the rail and waited for the far turn to
make his move. After six furlongs were covered in 1:11.29, the three leaders
tightened up around the far turn. Dortmund maintained his narrow lead, Firing
Line pressured him and Espinoza had to ask American Pharoah for run even before
they hit the top of the stretch.
It was at the quarter-pole that the Derby looked like it was going to change
dramatically. Stevens seemed more concerned with American Pharoah to his outside
and less with Dortmund to his inside so he went wide turning for home. American
Pharoah wound up near the middle of the track at the top of the stretch and was
dangerously close to losing his momentum.
Essentially, American Pharoah blew the final turn. Part of it was Stevens
floating him out but part of it might be the issue that kept him out of the
Breeders’ Cup. He looked like a ouchy horse with a bad foot that is being
protected with some kind of plate, or worse.
Espinoza knew that his Derby was slipping away from him and he began a
persistent right-hand use of the whip on American Pharoah. The dogfight was on
and the three battled past the eighth pole. Dortmund began to weaken and Firing
Line eventually began to feel the effects of racing between horses for 10
furlongs. Espinoza’s decision to lose ground but relax paid dividends in the
deep stretch and he guided American Pharoah, despite a few anxious moments when
he and Firing Line brushed, to a hard-earned length victory. Dortmund barely
held on for third as Frosted (Tapit) rallied to just miss catching him.
American Pharoah covered the 10 furlongs in 2:03.02 and earned a BRIS Speed
rating of, 100 which was a step backwards from his Arkansas Derby victory. But
the fact to consider is how much ground he lost. According to Trakus, American
Pharoah covered 69 feet more than Dortmund and 29 feet more than Firing Line.
To put American Pharoah’s trip in perspective, this is how it compares to
previous winners:
| 2015 | American Pharoah | 6723 feet | ||
| 2014 | California Chrome | 6667 feet | ||
| 2013 | Orb | 6721 feet | ||
| 2012 | I’ll Have Another | 6680 feet | ||
| 2011 | Animal Kingdom | 6760 feet |
What makes American Pharoah’s trip so remarkable is horses that usually race
that wide are coming from behind but he was up pressing the pace. It was an
enormous effort on his part.
Now, we have to see how he comes out of the race. At the moment, the top
three finishers are scheduled to meet again in the Preakness Stakes (G1) so the
pace scenario could be very similar.
The question for American Pharoah is how does he handle another grueling race
in two weeks. Baffert had him trained to the minute for the Derby but it sure
looked like the foot/ankle was bothering him turning for home. I was always
concerned about Firing Line’s ability to get 10 furlongs and he will appreciate
the shorter distance. Don’t know why he raced most of the Churchill Downs
stretch on the wrong lead but coming off a six-week rest, he should be super
tough in Baltimore.
Dortmund weakened in the final furlong but considering how slow the race was,
the track may have sapped his energy. What if Pimlico comes up speed-favoring?
Will it enable him to carry his speed better?
Lots of questions to answer but one thing we know now; American Pharoah was
at his best on the first Saturday of May.