KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
MAY 2, 2015
by James Scully
Dortmund (Big Brown) is my choice to win the Kentucky
Derby.
The big chestnut brings high speed to the equation and
given his draw in post 8, with Firing Line (Line of David) to his outside, I’m
expecting him to be sent right from the break. Dortmund is capable of
adapting — the athletic colt is more nimble than he looks — and can sit close if
necessary, but a wire-to-wire scenario is my prediction.
I’ve reversed course in terms of pace projections and am no
longer expecting ridiculous fractions to materialize, similar to the 2012 and
2013 editions that featured opening splits in :45 & change and 1:09 & change.
Dortmund and Firing Line each drew well and I anticipate
them establishing a favorable early positioning before settling on the front end
— the riders will be conscious of saving enough for the latter stages aboard
these top contenders.
And while a number of other rivals are exiting
front-running performances, their best chance is to sit close instead of
employing suicidal tactics during the early stages. None are as quick as
Dortmund and Firing Line, with the exception of American Pharoah. And the last
thing Bob Baffert wants to see is Dortmund and American Pharoah (Pioneerof the
Nile) dueling early.
Dortmund competed in the deepest preps this year in
California and continued to get stronger each time out. He possesses the BRIS
numbers, registering a 106 Speed rating last time, and still looks to be moving
forward. According to all reports, Dortmund recorded a brilliant final workout
at Santa Anita last weekend and has trained superbly since arriving at Churchill
Downs.
Dortmund will give Baffert his fourth Kentucky Derby
winner.
Underneath
Frosted (Tapit) is a must-use in vertical exotics and any
back-up tickets following his splendid score in the TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial
(G1) that netted a 107 BRIS Speed rating. He drew well in post 14, allowing
jockey Joel Rosario to potentially avoid trouble in a congested field and will
be making his second start since throat surgery, the same pattern Alysheba
followed when capturing the Run for the Roses in 1987.
Dortmund and Firing Line could run 1-2 around the oval and
I’ll use the other speed (Firing Line) in my exotic tickets.
Bolo (Temple City) is a nice colt who exits a pair of
commendable efforts, finishing third to Dortmund in the San Felipe (G2) and
Santa Anita Derby (G1), and appears to have taken to the main track at Churchill
Downs since arriving — I like his chances to run well at long odds.
American Pharoah has never been seriously tested and looks
vulnerable to me stretching out to 10 furlongs, but I’ll have to use the
supremely talented colt underneath as well.
I’ll be keying those four horses in the exotics with
Dortmund.
As far as spreading deeper, Danzig Moon (Malibu Moon) is a
closer to watch for in the stretch drive — the rapidly-improving sophomore
appears to be training forwardly under the Twin Spires since his Blue Grass
runner-up and figures to receive the right set-up for his late kick.
Mubtaahij (Dubwi) will be doing his best running late as
well and I was impressed with his turn of foot in the U.A.E. Derby (UAE-G2). Don’t know
how he will adapt to the extreme conditions of the Kentucky Derby, but he still
offers appeal.
Frammento (Midshipman) is a potential bomber as well — the
deep closer was slow to round into form for Nick Zito but appears to be doing
great presently, and he’s been caught in slow-paced races; figures to receive a
better set-up on Saturday.
Carpe Diem (Giant’s Causeway) is too good to dismiss
completely, easily capturing both stakes attempts this year. I fear he could be
compromised by post 2, but will use him on some tickets as well.
$100 Bankroll
$50 win 8
$4 Exactas: 8 over 9,10,15,18 ($16)
$2 exactas: 8 over 5,6,21 ($6)
$1 trifecta part-wheel: 8 over 9,10,15,18 over 2,5,6,9,10,15,18,21 ($28)
Enjoy the Derby!