HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
JUNE 12, 2015
by Dick Powell
Some quick hits from last Saturday’s Belmont Stakes (G1):
First of all, the 90,000 that attended was the largest crowd ever to witness
the Triple Crown. All the big crowds that set records for Belmont Stakes
attendance went home disappointed and the attendance in 1973, 1977 and 1978 were
all less than the 90,000 that showed up on Saturday.
I am extremely lucky to be at the last four Triple Crowns and American
Pharoah’s (Pioneerof the Nile) win on Saturday was similar to Secretariat’s in
1973.
Before 1973, you had to go back to 1948 for the last Triple Crown victory.
When Secretariat was “moving like a tremendous machine” around the far turn, it
was obvious that the 25-year drought was over. A 31-length victory usually has
some “ho-hum” aspects to it but once the crowd was convinced that they were
witnessing history, the release of energy was mind-boggling. No matter whom you
bet, you were screaming for Secretariat.
American Pharoah was not as dominant as Secretariat, and we have been
disappointed before with many near misses, but once he looked like he could not
be caught inside the last eighth of a mile, the crowd noise was deafening. It
was great to hear sports media people that do not cover horse racing on a
regular basis, but are present at other major sporting events, say the crowd
noise at Belmont on Saturday was something that they had never heard anywhere.
It was pretty cool.
Any concerns about American Pharoah coming out of the Preakness (G1) were
quickly dismissed with two sensational workouts down at Churchill Downs. He
could not have been more ready and three races in five weeks were not a problem
once he got through the Kentucky Derby (G1).
California clocker Gary Young said before the Derby that American Pharoah was
the best horse he had clocked in 35 years. Many scoffed at his opinion and
dismissed it. Now, it shows that Young was right all along. I give him a lot of
credit for going out on a limb like he did. There was no equivocation in what he
said and he looks like a genius now.
It didn’t get a lot of notice but it rained pretty good on Saturday morning.
I was up at 6 a.m. (ET) and the rain was steady until about 7:30 a.m. It was
overcast all morning and the track was tight as could be. Any concerns about it
drying out too much on a hot, sunny day were alleviated. The Belmont was
contested over a nice, tight racetrack that American Pharoah relished.
Victor Espinoza has won five of the last six Triple Crown races and it is no
surprise as he is never overwhelmed by the moment. He broke American Pharoah
just a step slow but quickly recovered and was on a mission to take the lead
going into the clubhouse turn.
As he has shown many times, once he makes the lead, American Pharoah will
switch off and use his cruising speed for as long as he needs to. Whatever
doubts I had about the dam-side of his pedigree were more than offset by his
ability to cruise along and conserve energy. Maybe in a fast-paced race, genetic
deficiencies would be exposed, but not on Saturday.
The expected pace battle never materialized when Materiality (Afleet Alex)
broke poorly and would not go up next to American Pharoah to push the pace.
Johnny Velazquez said his mount was not grabbing the track and he could not put
any real pressure on the leader. From there, he faded to dead last.
Frosted (Tapit) put in a nice run and for a brief moment on the far turn, had
to be checked in traffic. It didn’t affect the outcome but it could not have
come at a worse time. He quickly dropped over to the rail, passed Mubtaahij (Dubawi)
and took aim at American Pharoah, but Espinoza was still sitting chilly and had
plenty of horse left.
It was a game performance by Frosted, who is owned by Godolphin and,
hopefully, we will see more of their young runners stay in America to prepare
for the classic races here. Mubtaahij has had a busy year and under better
circumstances, could have been a bigger factor. Let’s hope the next time Mike de
Kock brings a runner to America he utilizes the anti-bleeding medication Lasix.
Winning the Triple Crown has to be an amazing achievement and to do it three
years after lying in a hospital bed in Dubai from a major heart attack has to be
even more remarkable. Bob Baffert has won the Triple Crown and it has been an
amazing journey from Rilito Park in Tucson, Arizona to the Belmont Stakes.
Nobody knows more than Baffert the heartbreak of losing the Belmont after
winning the first two legs. It was only fitting that the horse to finally do it,
after 37 years, would be trained by the former quarter-horse trainer and jockey.
Baffert was paid $200,000 by Burger King to have their mascot sit in his box.
He took the money and donated all of it to four equine charities. Plus, Victor
Espinoza donated his entire winning jockey fee to City of Hope Children’s Cancer
Hospital. There was an unconfirmed report from someone I know that Baffert
walked into the Belmont Café early in the afternoon and bought a round for the
entire room. Hundreds of people.
He wasn’t going to say it and in fact, said all the usual things about “if
the horse is good enough” but Baffert was brimming with confidence all week. His
two workouts at Churchill Downs were incredible and signs of a horse that was
getting better and better. Baffert knew it all along. I would love to hear his
reaction to all the analysts picking against him.
The tale of the 2015 Triple Crown was a great horse, American Pharoah, had
some setbacks physically and missed the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last
November. Baffert had him on a tight schedule to get ready for the Derby and had
him race twice at Oaklawn Park.
He might have been a short horse in the Derby but once he got by that hurdle,
it was all downhill. Many felt that the effort that Espinoza had to put into him
in the stretch was a sign of weakness but it turned out that he needed the race
and was light years better than the competition in the next two legs.
Where he goes from here is anyone’s guess. I would think the Haskell
Invitational (G1) is the favorite and a trip to Saratoga is unlikely. If he were
to come to the Spa, it would attract record crowds; as long as NYRA doesn’t
decide to limit them.