HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
JULY 10, 2015
by Dick Powell
LADY ELI (Divine Park) continues to win and right now, she is the best
three-year-old filly on turf in North America. Her win in Saturday’s $1 million
Belmont Oaks (G1) was brilliant and there is nobody left in her division to give
her a race. If trainer Chad Brown decides to keep her in against her own
division, there are two graded stakes at Saratoga on the turf with the ultimate
goal being the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (G1) at Keeneland.
Brown indicated after the race there would be little deviation from her age
group until the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G1) at Keeneland at the end
of the year but maybe after Saturday’s performance sinks in, Lady Eli’s
connections might realize that a step up in class is in order.
As good as she looked, saying that she is the best three-year-old turf filly
in the world is a bit of a stretch. She very well might be but until she ships
overseas and tries it, beating Aidan O’Brien’s fifth string is not going to cut
it.
The $1.25 million Belmont Derby (G1) was run earlier on the card but was not
televised nationally on NBC since it was not a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In”
race. Go figure.
What looked like a competitive event going in turned out to be anything but
when a gigantic hole opened up on the far turn and FORCE THE PASS (Speightstown)
shot through with Joel Rosario and broke the race wide open. What was starting
to look like a bad trip — stuck on the inside behind a crawling pace — changed
dramatically when BOLO (Temple City) drifted out on the turn leaving the hedge
wide open for Force the Pass to shoot through.
Sent off at a generous 10-to-1 off a very good win in the Penn Mile (G3),
Force the Pass made us all look foolish when he won by almost four lengths. Yes,
it was hard to gauge that he would get a trip but he showed a brilliant kick
going a mile in his last start so stretching out to 10 furlongs was not that big
a leap.
Impressive on the undercard was WinStar Farm’s SPEIGHSTER (Speightstown), who
won the Dwyer Stakes (G3) going a mile by 2 1/2 lengths. He sat off the pace in
second for Jose Lezcano before making his move around the far turn and
maintaining his advantage to the wire. Second was Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)
winner TEXAS RED (Afleet Alex), who loomed boldly in the stretch before
flattening out in his first start in five months.
Speightster is now undefeated in three career starts. You would hope his next
start would be the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) at Saratoga, which would represent his
first try two turns, but word is Speightster will be pointed to the
seven-furlong King’s Bishop Stakes (G1) on Travers Day. Texas Red is expected
for the Jim Dandy and could be an interesting three-year-old the rest of the
year.
Jimmy Jerkens’ training career has had a resurgence the past two years.
Wicked Strong (Hard Spun) won the Wood Memorial (G1) last year and just missed
winning the Travers Stakes (G1) by a nose to stablemate V E Day (English
Channel).
While those two were knocking heads last year, EFFINEX (Mineshaft) was biding
his time against New York-bred company, earning more than $345,000 in 2014
alone. He opened his four-year-old campaign with a pair of victories, including
the Excelsior (G3) at 10 furlongs, but was pulled up in the June 5 Brooklyn
Handicap (G2) after racing erratically and bearing out on both turns.
That is usually a sign of a physical ailment but Jerkens wheeled him back in
the Suburban Handicap (G2) Saturday and Effinex upset Belmont Park horse for the
course TONALIST (Tapit) by a head in good time, earning a monstrous 110 BRIS
Speed rating. Jerkens should have a lot of fun spotting these three
four-year-olds in the second half of the year.
Irad Ortiz Jr. is not a household name outside of New York but it won’t be
long until he is. In a period of 28 days, he won the $1 million Manhattan
Handicap (G1) with SLUMBER (Cacique) and the $1 million Belmont Oaks (G1) with
LADY ELI. He has developed into a top turf rider and now most of the big stables
are using him. Right now, Ortiz Jr. is the third-leading rider in North America
and it won’t be long before he gets to the top. He’s that good.
On Sunday at Monmouth Park, seven-year-old BIG BLUE KITTEN (Kitten’s Joy) got
first jump on the other closers and won the United Nations Handicap (G1) for the
second time in three years. Joe Bravo had him clear on the outside and even
though he lost some ground, Big Blue Kitten had a clear path for his late run
and by the time he opened up a clear lead, it was too late for the other closers
to threaten.
With entrymate SHINING COPPER (Aragorn) setting a demanding pace, the
strategy from Team Ramsay worked perfectly as Big Blue Kitten timed his move
perfectly and pushed his earning past the $2 million mark. Look for him to come
back in the Sword Dancer (G1) at Saratoga going 1 1/2 miles.