HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
JULY 3, 2015
by Dick Powell
The second annual Stars and Stripes Festival is this Saturday at Belmont Park
and the fireworks begin in race six on the Fourth of July racecard. Luckily, the
heavy rain that hit the New York metropolitan area is over and the races should
be conducted under Fast and Firm conditions.
Race six is the Victory Ride Stakes (G3) going 6 1/2 furlongs on the main
track for three-year-old fillies. Next comes the $500,000 Dwyer Stakes (G2) for
three-year-olds going a mile on the main track.
The marquee event of the day, the $1.25 million Belmont Derby Invitational
Stakes (G1) for three-year-olds at a mile and a quarter, is race eight. Despite
the large purse and efforts to entice international shippers, this year’s Derby
only drew nine entrants with just two coming in from overseas.
CANNDAL (Medicean) is from the powerful stable of the Aga Khan and won his
first race the second time out this year, traveling Saturday’s distance on good
turf at Longchamp in Paris. He came back with a good third going 11 furlongs on
soft turf in a Group 2, setting the pace from the start and leading to deep
stretch. The second-place horse that day came back to run seventh and 10th in
his next two starts. Canndal exits a troubled second versus listed rivals,
elevated one spot by the stewards after being sawed off in the stretch, and will
not use the diuretic Lasix.
POSTULATION (Harlan’s Holiday) ships in for Juddmonte Farms with decent form
in Ireland. He won his last race going this distance at The Curragh and his best
race might have been his career debut when beaten only four lengths by
Gleneagles (Galileo), the highest rated miler in Europe.
Trainer Dermot Weld is a legend in Ireland but familiar to race fans all over
the world. In 1990, he won the Belmont Stakes (G1) with Go and Go (Be My Guest).
He’s won the Melbourne Cup (Aus-G1), Australia’s most important race, twice,
sending out Vintage Crop (Rousillon) in 1993 and Media Puzzle (Theatrical) in
2002. When Weld ships, as Woody Stephens used to say, he’s here for a reason,
not the season.
In the $1 million Belmont Oaks (G1), 14 three-year-old fillies are entered
for the 1 1/4-mile race on the inner turf course but only two international
shippers made the trip. OLORDA (Lord of England) is from the powerful
international stable of Martin Schwartz, who has won major stakes in America
with Euro shippers Stacelita (Monsun), heroine of the Beverly D. Stakes (G1) and
Flower Bowl (G1); Alterite (Literato), who won the Garden City Stakes (G1);
Zagora (Green Tune), winner of the Diana Stakes (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Filly
and Mare Turf (G1); and Samitar (Rock of Gibraltar), who won the Garden City.
All were trained over here by Chad Brown and Olorda has similar credentials,
with the above fillies all improving once in America. She won a Group 3 two
starts back going nine furlongs on soft turf at Longchamp, her first start out
of Germany, and came back to finish third in a Group 1 last time, going
Saturday’s distance on good turf. The winner came back to run 11th in the Prix
Diane (Fr-G1) next out but had an excuse after breaking impossibly from post 17.
The other international runner in the Oaks is OUTSTANDING (Galileo), who
appears to be rounding into form for Aidan O’Brien. After running poorly in two
starts last year, she’s captured both attempts in 2015. Even though she missed
the Classics in Europe this year, Outstanding has the look of a filly that will
continue to improve.
She broke her maiden going a mile on yielding turf in a 20-horse field at
Naas in Ireland, returning off a six-month layoff in her seasonal bow, and
Outstanding came back at Saturday’s distance to win by almost three lengths last
time, making all the running on a good turf course. She adds Lasix and should
get ground that she favors.
O’Brien not only dominates European racing but is equally dangerous when he
ships to North America. He almost won the Belmont Derby last year with Adelaide
(Galileo), who went on to win the Secretariat Stakes (G1) at Arlington Park;
Cape Blanco (Galileo), winner of the Joe Hirsch Invitational Stakes (G1), the
Man o’ War Stakes (G1) and Arlington Million (G1); George Vancouver (Henrythenavigator),
who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1); and Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1)
winners St. Nicholas Abbey (Montjeu) and Magician (Galileo).
Outstanding is a full-sister to Magician and looks ready to take another move
up the class ladder. She draws outside and if the race is run slowly, she will
be losing ground every step of the way.
One interesting point in the Belmont Oaks is that all but one filly is
nominated for the Breeders’ Cup. The one that is not, Spanish Queen (Tribal
Rule), is also the only starter to win going 10 furlongs at the Grade 1 level,
capturing the American Oaks (G1) last out. The $535,000 winner’s purse could go
a long way to get her supplemented.
Finally, the one to beat in the Oaks is Lady Eli (Divine Park) who is
undefeated in five starts. Last year, I was not that strong on her in the
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf (G1) after a pair of rather slow wins
beforehand. She looked great with her explosive kick in the stretch at Santa
Anita and has come back this year with two easy wins, but neither was very fast.
In the Oaks, against 13 other rivals, Lady Eli draws inside with Irad Ortiz
Jr. and the question facing her surrounds her finishing kick; will she have the
same explosion going 10 furlongs as she’s displayed at middle distances? At a
short price I am betting she doesn’t.