by SCOTT SHAPIRO
Belmont Park and Keeneland Race Course will team up on Saturday, October 7, for an all-Grade 1 Pick 4 sequence with all four races being Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” events.
The four-race slate commences at Belmont Park with the Champagne and then heads to Lexington for the second of the two Grade 1 two-year-old events. In addition to being Win And You’re In races for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, both races are worth 16 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
The action then moves on to older horses with the $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup at a 1 ¼ miles on the Belmont dirt before concluding with the $1-million Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland.
The sequence features 15,288 combos before scratches with field sizes of 12, 13, 7, and 14. For FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances, CLICK HERE.
It’s also worth noting that three of the four races are part of the TwinSpires.com Build Your Breeders’ Cup Bankroll promotion. Bet $50 to win on the Breeders’ Futurity, Jockey Club Gold Cup, and Shadwell Turf Mile, and if your horse wins you’ll get a free $50 bet on the corresponding Breeders’ Cup race November 4 at Del Mar.
LEG 1: The Champagne (Race 8 at Belmont Park)
The $500,000 Grade 1 event at “Big Sandy’s” one-turn mile is a challenging full field event for two-year-olds. While there may not be any colts as talented as recent winners Uncle Mo, Union Rags or Practical Joke, this is a race that offers horseplayers several ways to go.
7-2-morning line favorite #6 Good Magic commanded a million dollars at the Keeneland September 2016 sale and ran well in his debut when he stalked a slow early pace at six and a half furlongs. I respect his chances as he stretches out to two turns and should get a much better setup, but he is hard to get too excited about at his price.
My lack of trust and a strong opinion will lead me to including several runners at a price including #1 Kowboy Karma who disappointed at 1 to 2 in the Sapling at Monmouth, but will likely save much more ground on Saturday being drawn to the rail.
I will also use both Jason Servis trainees at double-digit prices. #10 Full of Run won in impressive fashion sprinting in his debut at Monmouth in August, while #12 Firenze Fire lost for the first time in the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga.
Hopefully we can catch a double-digit winner to start the sequence.
LEG 2: Breeders’ Futurity (Race 8 Keeneland)
Much like the Champagne, the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity offers handicappers a full field of juvenile runners going two turns.
I will use just two in this mile and a sixteenth event over Keeneland’s main track.
# 9 Free Drop Billy looks tough stretching out to two turns for the first time for trainer Dale Romans. Romans has not won many races lately, but he has captured this race twice since 2011 and this son of Union Rags should appreciate the increase in distance.
I will also use #1 Lionite. The son of Quality Road may be a maiden, but he has shown talent for trainer Steve Asmussen. Like Free Drop Billy I expect him to improve with added ground and the price is right at 12-1 on the line. I do not think we have seen the best from this Kentucky-bred colt.
LEG 3: The Jockey Club Gold Cup (Race 10 Belmont Park)
This certainly will not go down as one of the stronger renditions of the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but it appears to be Todd Pletcher’s for the taking.
#7 Keen Ice is the deserving 9-5-morning line favorite off of his win over this surface and distance in the Grade 2 Suburban and then a well beaten second to Gun Runner last time out in the Grade 1 Whitney. He is probably the most likely winner, but is impossible for me to trust at a short price due to his lack of speed and just 3 career victories in 23 starts.
I will also include another Pletcher runner in #5 Rally Cry. Like his stable mate he was no match for Gun Runner when he finished a distant second in the Grade 1 Woodward in early September, but he finished pretty well and has had a strong 2017 outside of a disappointing effort in the one turn Met Mile on June 10th. He should get a perfect stalking trip and may be able to hold off Keen Ice’s late run in the lane.
LEG 4: The Shadwell Turf Mile (Race 9 Keeneland)
It is a very competitive version of the Grade 1 one million dollar Shadwell Turf Mile.
#8 Miss Temple City is the 3-1-morning line favorite coming off a neck win against Grade 3 company at Kentucky Downs, but I have not been impressed with her efforts in 2017 and struggle to back Edgar Prado at a short price. I will play against her.
#10 Heart to Heart had things all his way when she won the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch at Saratoga last month. He is likely to take his normal spot on the front end once again, but may have to work a bit more. I will also take a shot against him.
#2 Divisdero has been outrun in his last two tries, but projects to sit a nice ground saving trip from off the pace under jockey Julien Leparoux. #7 Mondialiste has not won much of late and may want a bit further, but if they go quickly early he should be rolling late. I will include both logicals.
I also give outside chances to European invader #3 Suedois who gets Lasix for the first time, #12 Offering Plan for Chad Brown and the improving gelding #13 Applicator.
I normally like to single a horse in the Pick 4, but my lack of confidence in a top pick in any of the four races, the chance to beat all four favorites in the sequence and a small budget makes me feel okay about the ticket construction.
Here is how I will play the All-Stakes Pick 4:
$0.50 Pick 4 part wheel:
Champagne: 1+6+10+11+12
Breeders’ Futurity: 1+9
Jockey Club Gold Cup: 5+7
Shadwell Turf Mile: 2+3+7+12+13
Ticket Cost: $50
Good luck at the windows!
You can find my full card Daily Selections for the Southern California circuit and Indiana Grand here: https://www.brisnet.com/product/selections-picks-reports/WDS
