The Risen Star Stakes begins Round 1 of the Kentucky Derby Championship Series, meaning 85 qualifying points are up for grabs, including 50 to the winner. For FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs of the Risen Star, CLICK HERE. For FREE Brisnet.com Premium PPs of the whole card, CLICK HERE.
Below is John Doyle’s interpretation of the OptixEQ plot for the Risen Star Stakes. Doyle is managing partner of Optix Equilytix and a former National Handicapping Championship winner.
PLOT Fit: YELLOW Contention is high and Speed Rating is low suggesting both capable early and late pace runners are possible.
Early Speed/ Pressers
#2 Nobile Indy – with the inside draw he is most likely to be on the lead early, as he will need to fend off several pressing types, the best of speeds in first time two turns and showed GRIT in his debut win, gets tested for class today.
#4 Snapper Sinclair – most likely will be applying pressure early, but wasn’t able to hold off the first two finishers in LeComte, who are also entered again today, not likely to turn the tables unless those two don’t bring their best.
#5 Instilled Regard – should be just off the early pace setters, ran well both times two turns despite wide trips, the last time over today’s track, galloped out well, extra distance should only benefit.
#9 Principe Guilherme – might not be able to avoid being caught wide early, ran well in the LeComte despite being wide last time, but must turn the tables on #5 INSTILLED REGARD; not sure that can happen unless that one just doesn’t run his race.
#6 Supreme Aura – ran a big B+ with a OptixFIG (96) sprinting off an extended layoff of 149 days, now stretching out for the first time, could add to a contentious front end, lightly-raced colt seems to have ability, however 2nd place runner from his last race came back to get buried at 2-1 in Sam Houston stakes race, gets class test today.
Mid-Pack
#1 High North – Lanerie will probably try and cover him up behind the first flight, based on his deep Q4 PLOT he might be farther out of it than he would like or he might need to use more to stay close, 84 days since last race so he might need one before showing his best.
#3 Givemeaminit – broke his maiden over today’s track in stylish fashion B+ with a big OptixFIG (96), however that big effort was sprinting; like all his good races, at this point he seems more of a one-turn horse.
#7 Bravazo – really popped with a big effort last time at Oaklawn Park, OptixNOTES HOT keyword indicates the jockey and/or barn was having one of those days, large circle in Quadrant 2 is obvious concern, did the switch go on last time or will we see regression with class raise to graded stakes company?
#10 Ebben – OptixFIGs gradually improving, but looks too slow compared to his competition, last jockey Lanerie ends up on #1 HIGH NORTH.
Closers
#8 Kentucky Club – overcame TROUBLE_S to win with B+ effort in the slop, but it was against 30K maiden claimers and his OptixFIG (86) is well below today’s range (92-98), according to QuadStats, Q4 circles win only 3.8% of the time at this track/surface/distance.
For all handicapping information for the 12-race Risen Star card on Saturday at Fair Grounds that includes 4 graded stakes races from 6 added-money events, CLICK HERE.
