With Kentucky Derby points up for grabs in the Sam F. Davis Stakes on Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs (CLICK HERE for FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances), and the National Handicapping Championship this weekend at Treasure Island in Las Vegas, we invited former NHC Champion and OptixEQ founder John Doyle to handicap the race for us.
The plot for the race is above with John’s comments for each horse below. To learn more about Optix (which uses Brisnet.com data), CLICK HERE.
PLOT Fit: RED, so be careful
Contention is average and Speed Rating is zero.
Early Pace
2 – not a lot of pace in here so expect him to be on the lead, large circle typically indicates late pace vulnerability, but sometimes he shows fight, if he can repel pressers and open up, maybe he can hold on for a piece, has recent pattern of Good Race – Bad Race.
7 – first race since the Remsen 70d ago and will need to turn tables on #6 CATHOLIC BOY, should be in a tracking/pressing position, may try and put inside speed away early on the turn, open up and hold off off-pace types, shorter distance should help his cause.
3 – low Q3 position is a concern since he hasn’t been too far off the pace in his first two races and the PLOT position suggests he may have to work harder v. this group to keep up at the 2nd call, it could leave him vulnerable late.
4 – comes off an improved OptixFIG in his first start v. winners despite breaking SLOG and being slightly X_FLOW, PLOTs right off the 2,7 and might trip well, first time going two turns, but NOTES pegged him as a STRETCH? candidate off his debut.
Off Pace
1 – just broke maiden over today’s track, has a back OptixFIG of 91 as a 2y, so there’s room for improvement, exotics player passing tired horses for the underneath slots.
5 – faces much softer than he has been recently, scratched out of the Holy Bull for this one, however OptixFIGs and grades were on the decline prior to the benching, also we still consider this guy more of a one-turn horse, might be overplayed here.
6 – obvious player, cuts back in distance off a big win B+ in a PERFECT trip Remsen, today’s pace scenario not ideal for his closing style, also TAMPA is a very sandy surface and not all horses adapt to it, some things to consider when backing what could be a very heavy favorite.
