by SCOTT SHAPIRO
Not only are there a trio of 50-point-to-the-winner Kentucky Derby prep races on Saturday but also a chance to bet those winners (and others!) in pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager that closes Sunday (click the race name for FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs).
2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile favorite Bolt d’Oro has yet to race in 2017, but confidence in his talent has the Mick Ruis trainee listed as the co-morning line choice along with “All Other Three-Year Olds” in the pool that opens at noon eastern on Friday.
The fan in me is really looking forward to the return of Bolt d’Oro in the San Felipe Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita Park (click the race name for FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs), but the hiccups in training, the barn’s inexperience on the Derby Trail, and the colt’s lack of value have me fading the son of Medaglia d’Oro in pools of this nature until further notice. If he performs well off the bench and comes out of the San Felipe well I will reevaluate his chances in the 2018 Triple Crown series.
I feel fortunate to have recommended investment into Bob Baffert-conditioned McKinzie back in late November in Future Wager Pool 1, but getting in early on the son of Street Sense still only landed me 12-1 on the Kentucky bred colt. I may have him number one on my current Top Ten list at KentuckyDerby.com, but my confidence is not high enough to jump back in for more at his 8-to-1 morning line price.
I felt good about the value of my two additions last month during Pool 2, but a poor effort from Instilled Regard in the Risen Star and the unorthodox move by trainer Dale Romans to move Free Drop Billy from the Fountain of Youth to the one-turn Gotham did not bolster my confidence in the duo. I will hope for the best with the pair of long shots but won’t be back for more this time.
If this were a fantasy draft instead of a pari-mutuel pool, the horse I’d most want is Audible. The New York-bred has rattled off three straight victories for trainer Todd Pletcher, including a dominant five and a half length win in last month’s Grade 2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. Unfortunately, this is a pari-mutuel pool, and there is a lack of value at this point considering the 8-to-1 morning line price for Pool 3.
With three units already invested in Future Wager Pool 1 and 2, my plan in the final two pools is not to overindulge, but instead invest half units into horses that are 20 to 1 or higher. There are two such runners that interest me in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3.
Catholic Boy raced on the grass during his first three starts as a two-year-old, including a fourth place finish in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, but high percentage trainer Jonathan Thomas opted to give the son of More Than Ready a shot over the dirt in the Grade 2 Remsen at Aqueduct. He passed the test with flying colors winning the $250,000 event by nearly five lengths in the end.
Thomas brought Catholic Boy back in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa last month where he was bet down to 3 to 5 and appeared poised for his second consecutive win, but was unable to get by wire to wire winner Flameaway.
I would have loved to have seen Catholic Boy get the best of the Mark Casse speed horse in the lane at Tampa, but I can be a bit forgiving since it was his first race in nine weeks. Furthermore, it is unlikely that Thomas had the multiple graded stakes winner cranked for the Sam F. Davis with the Tampa Bay Derby being the prep with the highest purse and most qualifying points rewarded to the victor.
At 20-1 or higher, I will invest a half unit on Catholic Boy.
The other colt that I have interest in at a price in Future Pool 3 is Sporting Chance. The winner of last year’s Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga made his first start in over five months in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park and did not embarrass himself.
The son of Tiznow stalked from the inside in the early going, was in a bit tight along the rail on the backstretch and into the far turn, yet still battled gamely to earn third. With additional experience going a route of ground, the D. Wayne Lukas trained colt could prove to be a major player on the Triple Crown trail in the coming weeks and months.
At 30-1 or higher I will add a “slice” of Sporting Chance to my Future Pool portfolio.
After the San Felipe, the Gotham, and the Tampa Bay Derby on Saturday, horseplayers will begin to get a stronger hold of this year’s Triple Crown trail. I am really looking forward to the weekend!
Scott Shapiro provides Brisnet.com with daily selections full-card analysis with best bet bets for Santa Anita Park; follow him on Twitter @ScottShap34