BALTIMORE — Aside from the Preakness (G1) doings, one of the hot topics of the week was how the Pimlico turf course was going to fare after an unrelenting deluge of rain in the Baltimore area that’s lasted since Mothers Day.
With 13 races scheduled over it Friday and Saturday, including six stakes, races were, as expected, taken off the turf on Thursday. Still, despite the lush and thick appearance of the course midweek, the pummeling the course has taken over such a long stretch led to speculation about how many, if any, turf races would be salvaged.
Friday morning, the Maryland Jockey Club announced that races 2, 6, and 8 — all allowances — would be run on the main track. Race 4, a maiden, was to stay on, along with the Jim McKay Turf Sprint, Hilltop, and the nightcap allowance (Race 14). Not surprisingly, the course was labeled “soft,” the lowest-rated designation possible in American racing and a rarely-seen one as most tracks refuse to card anything but the most important stakes in such conditions.
It didn’t take long to realize that “soft” was not an accurate description. Instead, the commonly-seen European designation “heavy” would have been more appropriate. As in National Hunt-type heavy.
The maiden race, at 1 1/16 miles, was timed in an absurdly-slow 1:59.52, undoubtedly one of the slowest clockings for the distance in modern racing history regardless of surface. Soon after, it was announced Race 14 had been switched to the main track.
A press box colleague set the over/under of 1:05 for five furlongs in the Jim McKay Turf Sprint. I told him I’d take the “under,” and presciently predicted a time of 1:03 and change. The final time turned out to be 1:03.81, still ridiculously slow when we’re talking about above-average stakes-quality sprinters.
After the maiden race, it was obviously apparent that a number of horses simply weren’t going to handle this type of ground, more inclined for self preservation rather than extending themselves. Fields for all three races that went Friday were highly strung out at the finish, with Souper Striking ending the day’s infield action in the Hilltop in a time of 1:51.72 — for one mile!
Even before evidence came in of the course’s true condition, favorites like Hogy (Jim McKay Turf Sprint) and Thewayiam (Hilltop) had already been withdrawn. It’s likely more of the same can be expected Saturday when the Dixie (G2), Gallorette (G3), and two other stakes are scheduled.
Even with the rail scheduled to be set at zero and fresh ground available for horses breaking in the first handful of paths, how many horsemen are going to be willing to sacrifice some of their best steeds when other races and better conditions are around the corner?
It’s hard to see how any but the four stakes remain on the turf at Pimlico on Preakness Day, and even then the size of the fields could be severely compromised. That’s unfortunate news for Pimlico and the Maryland Jockey Club, who rely so heavily on strong business this particular weekend year in and year out.
Let’s not forget, also, that attempting to handicap and wager on the races that do remain on the turf will be incredibly difficult. Favorites did win two of the three turf races Friday, but the entire process probably can not be done with complete confidence and in some ways could wind up a guessing game.
It’s all an unfortunate outcome of Mother Nature’s wrath.
PROGENY ON SOFT TURF in NORTH AMERICA
(2001-, minimum 25 starts)
sire | starts | wins | earnings | win % | Avg. Odds | roi |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dynaformer | 127 | 23 | 1501945 | 18.1102 | 6.61739130 | -36.220473 |
Giant’s Causeway | 72 | 9 | 669657 | 12.5000 | 7.90211268 | -70.902778 |
Smart Strike | 72 | 11 | 2593141 | 15.2778 | 9.91760563 | -42.013889 |
Stormy Atlantic | 61 | 10 | 658353 | 16.3934 | 11.32704918 | -10.163935 |
Langfuhr | 57 | 3 | 742995 | 5.2632 | 16.64912281 | -1.666667 |
Kitten’s Joy | 55 | 16 | 1324234 | 29.0909 | 10.45000000 | 28.454545 |
Royal Academy | 55 | 1 | 171078 | 1.8182 | 10.75363636 | -96.818182 |
Sky Classic | 50 | 8 | 869551 | 16.0000 | 8.61428571 | 20.200000 |
More Than Ready | 48 | 6 | 315622 | 12.5000 | 9.13125000 | -57.500000 |
With Approval | 48 | 6 | 374043 | 12.5000 | 8.90232558 | -22.291667 |
Arch | 47 | 8 | 768779 | 17.0213 | 12.87978723 | 22.021277 |
Mr. Greeley | 44 | 5 | 395246 | 11.3636 | 9.37840909 | 91.818182 |
Not for Love | 44 | 5 | 261184 | 11.3636 | 9.44767442 | -42.045455 |
El Prado (IRE) | 43 | 8 | 619889 | 18.6047 | 7.40476190 | -39.069768 |
Northern Baby | 42 | 5 | 105648 | 11.9048 | 3.99027778 | -100.000000 |
A.P. Indy | 38 | 3 | 290016 | 7.8947 | 7.01571429 | -65.526316 |
Pleasant Tap | 38 | 5 | 145316 | 13.1579 | 14.12205882 | -61.710526 |
Harlan’s Holiday | 37 | 6 | 510032 | 16.2162 | 10.42567568 | -23.243243 |
Thunder Gulch | 36 | 4 | 229762 | 11.1111 | 7.90303030 | -61.111111 |
Cozzene | 35 | 4 | 208885 | 11.4286 | 9.86451613 | -2.857143 |
Lemon Drop Kid | 35 | 5 | 937184 | 14.2857 | 11.24857143 | 1.285714 |
Pulpit | 35 | 2 | 237490 | 5.7143 | 7.99310345 | -85.142857 |
Tapit | 35 | 2 | 422027 | 5.7143 | 12.94714286 | -86.000000 |
Theatrical (IRE) | 35 | 2 | 315803 | 5.7143 | 9.95909091 | -73.571429 |
Malibu Moon | 34 | 1 | 63991 | 2.9412 | 19.74696970 | -83.235294 |
Polish Numbers | 34 | 3 | 90992 | 8.8235 | 9.95000000 | -92.647059 |
Bernstein | 33 | 8 | 809651 | 24.2424 | 7.58181818 | 92.121212 |
Broken Vow | 33 | 5 | 221267 | 15.1515 | 12.78125000 | 56.363636 |
City Zip | 32 | 2 | 122383 | 6.2500 | 11.49531250 | -79.687500 |
Freud | 32 | 3 | 189395 | 9.3750 | 14.82500000 | -42.968750 |
Medaglia d’Oro | 32 | 5 | 502688 | 15.6250 | 12.43281250 | -42.031250 |
Mizzen Mast | 32 | 5 | 251973 | 15.6250 | 7.55833333 | 2.500000 |
Tale of the Cat | 31 | 4 | 258190 | 12.9032 | 9.39032258 | -22.580645 |
Go for Gin | 30 | 12 | 456562 | 40.0000 | 10.63461538 | 168.500000 |
Woodman | 30 | 6 | 325955 | 20.0000 | 12.91250000 | 175.666667 |
Red Ransom | 29 | 4 | 135435 | 13.7931 | 14.46896552 | -20.344828 |
Distorted Humor | 28 | 2 | 264443 | 7.1429 | 11.25370370 | -68.928572 |
Forest Wildcat | 28 | 2 | 138910 | 7.1429 | 11.26964286 | -80.357143 |
Rahy | 28 | 3 | 218959 | 10.7143 | 13.62678571 | -49.285714 |
Belong to Me | 27 | 4 | 246913 | 14.8148 | 16.59074074 | 44.074074 |
Unbridled’s Song | 27 | 4 | 410594 | 14.8148 | 16.64600000 | 3.148148 |
Victory Gallop | 26 | 5 | 125915 | 19.2308 | 11.24000000 | -12.307692 |
Gulch | 25 | 6 | 694671 | 24.0000 | 9.36875000 | 44.600000 |
Holy Bull | 25 | 3 | 90621 | 12.0000 | 14.00600000 | -6.400000 |
Lear Fan | 25 | 3 | 267520 | 12.0000 | 8.14047619 | -61.400000 |
Regal Classic | 25 | 2 | 303326 | 8.0000 | 18.44347826 | -64.800000 |
Silver Deputy | 25 | 2 | 123905 | 8.0000 | 10.30600000 | -58.400000 |
generated 2018-05-18 21:20:09 by HeidiSQL 9.4.0.5125