How to bet the 2018 Belmont Stakes Superfecta

I have made no bones about not picking Justify to win the 2018 Belmont Stakes (G1) and thus the Triple Crown, but making a public pick and strategizing a Superfecta wager should always be two separate pursuits.

I think Justify wins the Belmont Stakes 33% of the time, which is fair odds of 2-1. So, at his morning line of 4-5 he’s obviously not worth a win bet.

But is he worth using in the win (i.e. top) spot of exotic wagers? Absolutely.

Consider the Kentucky Derby (G1) where he was not an attractive win proposition to me at 5-2 but still keyed a $19,000-plus Superfecta with very logical horses in second (champion Good Magic) and third (Grade 1 winner Audible). The key there, of course, was having longest-shot-on-the-board Instilled Regard in the bottom spot, but the payoff was well worth spreading.

The Preakness (G1) was similarly solid with Justify winning at (to me) an underlaid 2-5 but still keying a 147-1 Trifecta above Bravazo and Tenfold. The key opinion there was beating Good Magic off the board.

So what is the key opinion in the Belmont Stakes? With a 10-horse field and a lot of attention on Justify’s Triple Crown bid as well as Hofburg the overwhelming choice as most likely saboteur, I’m taking a similar approach to betting the Belmont Stakes superfecta as I did in the Preakness: 1. Only one of the two logicals can be in the Exacta, and 2. If Blended Citizen hits the board I better win.

Blended Citizen won the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park before faltering in the Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland in a bid to qualify for the Kentucky Derby field. Trainer Doug O’Neill opted for the Peter Pan (G3) at Belmont over the Preakness, and the horse responded with his first win on dirt. I think he can get a similar trip as Birdstone did when upsetting Smarty Jones in the 2004 Belmont Stakes. I will play him across the board as well as keyed with Justify in exotic wagers and quasi-boxed with other longshots I like.

The plays:

SUPERFECTA:
1 with 10 with ALL with ALL ($5.60)
1 with ALL with 10 with ALL ($5.60)
10 with 1 with ALL with ALL ($5.60)
10 with ALL with 1 with ALL ($5.60)
10 with 1, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9 with 1, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9 with ALL ($21)
1, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9 with 10 with 1, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9 with ALL ($21)
1, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9 with 1, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9 with 10 with ALL ($21)
3, 7, 8, 9 with 1, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9 with ALL with 10 ($14)
3, 7, 8, 9, 10 with 1, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10 with ALL with ALL ($168)
1 with 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10 with 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10 with ALL ($21)
2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10 with 1 with 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10 with ALL ($21)

TRIFECTA:
3, 7, 8, 9, 10 boxed ($30)

EXACTA:
3, 7, 8, 9, 10 boxed ($20)

TOTAL: $359.40