When it comes to handicapping two-year-old racing, pedigree, trainer stats, and workouts are popular resources, but what about jockeys?
Most would likely attribute jockey success to the trainers who leg them up, and a quick scan of the top riders of two-year-olds this year by wins and/or earnings lends credence to this conventional wisdom.
Through August 15, Ricardo Santana is the leading rider of juvenile by both wins (16) and earnings ($815,663). However, 93.75% of his wins (15) and 92.56% of his mounts’ earnings ($755,230) have come from Steve Asmussen-trained horses even only as 81.6% of his total two-year-old mounts have come from that trainer.
Albin Jimenez, second by wins with 14 and sixth by earnings with $581,900, is similar in that most of his success has come via trainer Wesley Ward (9-for-13) or Kelly Breen (3-for-5) and is “just” 2-for-9 combined among 6 other trainer (just is quoted because 2/9 is still pretty good just not otherworldly like 69.2% of 60% strike rates.
The other top five jockeys by wins are Drayden Van Dyke (12/27), Tracy Hebert (11/21), and Miguel Vasquez (11/51). One thing the top five riders all have in common besides being in the top 5 jockeys by wins aboard two-year-old racehorses is that they all show a flat-bet profit in this category. In fact, 7 of the top 9 jockeys by juvenile wins have a flat-bet profit ROI in this category: Irad Ortiz Jr. and Joel Rosario. The two jockeys in the top 9 by wins with a negative ROI are Tyler Gaffalione and Jose Ortiz.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, five jockeys have ridden at least 20 foals of 2016 with no wins: Santo Sanjur (0/21), Reylu Gutierrez (0/21), Joe Lezcano (0/21), Jack Gilligan (0/22), and Samuel Camacho Jr. (0/24). Very few of these mounts were aboard favorites, though. The most futile in that category is probably Timothy Thornton at 1-for-10 this year. The aforementioned Santana, Van Dyke, Jimenez, and Hebert all do well aboard chalk with a flat-bet profit on favored two-year-olds. Five of the top 7 and 7 of the top 10 jockeys aboard winning juvenile favorites all have positive ROIs. Kudos to their agents!
