Earlier this week we discussed some handicapping angles to be aware of when handicapping Turfway Park, and it’s time to put those thoughts (and many others!) into action as the Florence, Kentucky, track opens its 4-month stand on Wednesday, Nov. 28.
FOR HANDICAPPING INFORMATION FOR TURFWAY PARK, CLICK HERE!
To help kick off the all-Polytrack meeting, TwinSpires.com is offering a Lucky Doubles promo in which you can get your bet back (up to $10/race and $50/day) if you use the right numbers but in the wrong races. E.g., you play a 3, 4 with 5, 6 double part wheel, but #5 wins leg 1 and #3 wins leg 2 for a winning double of 5-3. Had it come 3-5 you’d have cashed your bet, but since it came 5-3 instead you get your bet back (up to $10/race and $50/day). The other restrictions to be aware of are 1) you can only use a maximum of 2 horses in each race, and 2) only your first wager counts.
The Turfway Park wagering menu is extremely friendly to multi-race bettors with a Pick 5 on races 1-5, Pick 4s on races 2-5 and 5-8, and rolling Pick 3s and double. Race 5 is extremely important on 8-race cards because it concludes the Pick 5 and early Pick 4 while starting the late Pick 4.
For opening night that race is a $5,000 claimer for horses who have not won a race in 6 months, and the favorite #8 Spanish Justice looks formidable shipping in for owner-trainer David Reid after scratching out of a Hawthorne race that came off the turf. This horse fits one pattern we talked about last year in which horses who have raced within the past month *AND* have a published workout between that start and racing at Turfway seem to do well. He will be a heavy lean.
Man, I’m not a big vertical player, but might have to be flexible with how I’m comfortable expressing some opinions on Wednesday @TurfwayPark. Lots of big fields with opportunities abounding to get big prices “in the number”
— Ed DeRosa (@EJXD2) November 28, 2018
So that’s a favorite in a key race, but what about some other potential prices that I hinted at in the tweet above?
Race 2 kicks off the early Pick 4 and is the 2nd leg of the Pick 5 and features a couple horses who I expect to be big prices and who will be on my tickets: #3 Rabanito and #13 Candir. Rabanito has run steadily all year and has maintained his form. His running lines indicate a closer’s style, but his pace ratings hint that he might be closer to the pace today from an inside post. Candir has been on the shelf while Mountaineer was closed, and his trainer returns to Turfway for a two-turn Polytrack race with a 5-furlong local workout in tow.
In race 3 #8 Man of Blues is the 6-to-1 morning line co-4th choice (following two scratches) and would definitely offer value at that price and ranking relative to the field coming off a gate-to-wire win with positive synthetic form as well.
In race 4 #6 Lady Rubi is a contender in this $15,000 claimer for nonwinners of two races lifetime given that any hint of her turf form in her Polytrack debut easy contends with these, and 10-to-1 is the right price to see if that happens.
Race 7 I mention not because it’s a longshot I like but because it features my most likely winner on the night and as an added bonus he’s not the morning line favorite. I’m talking of #9 Releasethethunder who has been plenty fast enough to win this type of race at Turfway and is DEFINITELY faster than 8-to-5 morning line favorite #7 Thomas Shelby, who appears poised to take money more on the strength of his trainer (Wesley Ward) than based on his debut.
My ABC grid for all 8 races is below. Good luck!
