A 9-race card at Oaklawn Park welcomes live racing back to Hot Springs, Arkansas, and before we get to today’s winners (!), I want to remind everyone of all the great tools available to handicap Oaklawn not only opening weekend but also throughout the meeting that–for the first time–goes through Kentucky Derby day instead of Arkansas Derby day (and by the way, that was the absolute talk of the town this morning; people are very excited that racing is here through Kentucky Derby day, and “having live racing on Kentucky Derby day will make that day even more fun” said one of the waitresses at Pancake Shop).
Anyway, back to the handicapping.
- For a meet handicapping preview, CLICK HERE to visit TwinSpires.com’s Oaklawn Betting Guide with content from a pair of Eclipse Award-winning Johns: NHC winner Doyle on Optix, Oaklawn, and Pace, and Turf writer Scheinman on trainer angles.
- For all your Brisnet.com handicapping needs, CLICK HERE, including special for Friday-Saturday Spotlight Selections from Gus Alonso.
- Other specialty products for Oaklawn include Optix Plot PPs, and Bruno With the Works.
- And of course, watch and wager on TwinSpires.com, including a great Show-Place-Win promo opening weekend!
Alright, and now on with our show.
I already revealed my best bet of the day on Twitter. It’s in race 5, which is somewhat frustrating because it’s not a part of either Pick 4, but we could kick off the Pick 5 with a bang.
More on the whole @OaklawnRacing card after scratches, but my best bet of the day if morning line holds is #1 Go Vo in race 5. Speed and fade against better off long layoff and now lands in condition claimer spot. pic.twitter.com/ZGMw7oE3jw
— Ed DeRosa (@EJXD2) January 25, 2019
As for the whole card, my grid is below, and a few opportunities stick out:
- In the lid lifter, the most likeliest winners are all on the outside going 1 1/16 miles, which I don’t love, but it’s too good a group to give up on because of post. The only thing I’m sure of is I don’t like #2 Run Tappy as the 3-to-1 morning line second choice and do likes #s 8 Derecho Warrior (12-to-1) and 9 Golden Bullet (6-to-1) at their morning line prices. #s 3 & 5 are upgrades if those 20-to-1 prices hold up as well.
- Really tough to have an opinion in this maiden race for Arkansas breds getting to race for a $77,000 purse. I’m really trying to “buy” less races in 2019, but there’s not a single horse I’d want to knock me out here.
- #8 Bow and Arrow I think is most talented, but biggest concern is there is a lone “E” type in here in #9 Ceeky, and I’m a little concerned as to how much pace this one will have to run into, but he’s sharp and drops out of allowance company for this cushy starter for cagey trainer Karl Broberg.
- Trainer Brad Cox looks loaded in the straight maiden heats today, and his troika commences in this race with the Trappe Shot filly Helena debuting for breeder Juddmonte Farms. #6 What a Fox is my favorite of the horses who have run so far. #5 Adari at 15-to-1 is interesting with a bullet workout after an odd debut where she made lead and had to come again.
- SEE TWEET ABOVE
- This is probably the most likely winner of the day, as #4 Irish Mischief was fast on debut. Some concern with the “hung late” moniker, but plenty of training for this, and the only horse who concerned me scratched.
- Two big scratches here with #s 3 & 4 both out. That makes #1 Kada a big upgrade for me with speed and the rail, though I don’t like she was 0/3 at less than 6 furlongs before rattling off two straight going longer and now cutting back to 5 1/2. Still, she’s obviously fast.
- See SMARTY JONES STAKES write up after the grid. For FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances of this race, CLICK HERE.
- The biggest scratch of the day is of the #7 Proud Nation here. That makes this race much more competitive. Not sure where the odds will land with a 2-to-1 morning line horse out, but #4 Brush Country gets the double equipment change of blinks and balls off and is worth a look stretching out off that with a decent post.
This time of a year, many of the key Kentucky Derby points races could feature mostly maiden winners, but that is not the case with a competitive Smarty Jones field on Friday at Oaklawn Park where 5 of the 9 entrants are stakes winners. The Smarty Jones will also give us a good beat on the strength of certain regions with the Springboard Mile exacta from Remington Park going up against several from the Sugar Bowl at Fair Grounds, including Gray Attempt.
Whether you like him to win or not, Gray Attempt is an important part of any handicapping of this race, as he is outside speed who might benefit from the scratch of Jack Van Berg to his outside. Gray Attempt has blitzed both fields in his last two races since losing his debut to Jack Van Berg, and his Brisnet.com Speed Ratings have him out front in this two-turn, short-stretch mile, but Racing Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen has options to keep him company in maiden winner Boldor and New York-bred stakes winner and Springboard runner-up Bankit.
I see the added distance as aiding Gray Attempt, as Graydar’s progeny average Speed Ratings get better with distance. The outside post is a bigger concern to me than pedigree, but no reason to think that Sugar Bowl doesn’t win this.
