Races with juveniles can be challenging to handicap and formulate opinions when the two-year-old talent has limited experience racing. Our writers have compiled talking points for each runner for most of such races for the fall meet.
Find Sunday, November 10th runners below for Churchill Downs!
Churchill Race 10 analysis for Nov. 10 – Maiden Special Weight
#1 SMALL TALK — Awesome Again a 6% turf debut sire, while dam is a half-sister to Canadian turf champion Irish Mission and G3 grass scorer French Beret; this colt’s half-brother, Malibu Secret, was stakes-placed on the turf first out vs. eventual multiple graded stakes winner Channel Maker; pedigree suggests long-term potential is there, though barn’s new racers tend to need a start or two.
#2 SOCIAL AFLEET — Louisiana-bred has been generally ineffective through a trio of starts on the main track; Northern Afleets only 8% first out on the lawn; dam has reared a pair of grass winners, though her best have excelled on the main track; might prove more formidable down the road against state-bred company at FG.
#3 MIDNIGHT JOSTAR — Rebounded in a big way off a nondescript debut to just miss when trying the turf at Keeneland; a stakes-placed half-sister set a 1 1/16-mile course record at Pimlico in 2016, so this family seems to have an affinity for the surface; logical threat with a repeat, but main concern is that there doesn’t appear to be a lot of speed on paper.
#4 CLASSIFIED INFO — Trailed in his debut against the colt who would later be renamed Scabbard (2nd in Breeders’ Futurity), then showed improved speed when trying the turf, though lost contact in the final furlong with Fenwick Station, who was later stakes-placed at KD and won an allowance over the CD turf; gelded since latest and adds Lasix, though limited worktab the past three months yields few clues.
#5 SUBLIMINALCRIMINAL — Aside from placing in a slowly-run, seven-furlong test on the main track in late August, he hasn’t been overly competitive; that includes an initial grass try over in Lexington, though a modest pace didn’t help his cause; half to multiple G3 winner Rated R Superstar more exposed than most of these.
#6 PAINTSVILLE — Excellent pedigree; sire gets 12% turf debut winners, while dam is half-sister to European champion Peeping Fawn and G1 scorer Thewayyouare; this colt’s third dam was Blush With Pride, the Kentucky Oaks heroine who produced Broodmare of the Year Better Than Honour; this colt’s full brother broke his maiden on the turf at Ellis in August in his third try on the surface; not a strong debut barn, however.
#7 SKYRAY — Unlucky to draw the rail at both Ellis and Keeneland, and never got involved at any point in the latter; Hard Spun a 10% turf debut sire, while best of female family succeeded more on he main track.
#8 LASTCHANCEATGLORY — Outrun in his debut going short, he was able to stay in closer proximity stretching out last time; finished only 1 1/2 lengths behind returning rival Midnight Jostar, who presumably would hold the slight edge again here; bullet five-furlong move here last week duly noted; fodder for exotics.
#9 BLESS THE KITTEN — Improved his position late in that debut over the Keeneland grass, though still seven lengths adrift of Chapalu, who came back to win the Grey (G3) over the Tapeta at Woodbine; some improvement can be expected with that run behind him, and interim bullet at the Churchill training track noted; solid T/J combo, though barn a little slow to start the meet (1-for-16 to start).
#10 EMBRACE THE GRIND — Outrun at big odds first out at Keeneland; will have to show more speed to even be in the mix here; primary positive is the quick start the Colebrook barn is off to this meet, winning with three of their first eight starters.
#11 TRUENO — Addition of blinkers and switch to dirt did little to improve his fortunes; lacks any semblance of speed, thus hard to see him vying on the return to turf.
#12 INVADER — After a good run at KD, he regressed when facing several of these on the stretch-out to one mile; no apparent mishap that day, but some may wish to draw a line through that one; War Front colt has two successful full brothers: Fog of War won the Summer (G1) at Woodbine, while Naval Intelligence was a stakes winner in England.
#13 GHOSTLORE — Has faced two of the better juveniles in the crop in Dennis’ Moment and Maxfield, getting within a length of the latter two back before that one returned to win the Breeders’ Futurity (G1); hasn’t contended in three other starts, however; Ghostzapper a 9% turf debut sire, though this colt’s siblings include the graded dirt winners On Fire Baby and High Heels.
#14 PITCHING FAST — Munnings a 10% turf debut sire, while dam was a multiple winner on grass including an AP maiden in her second attempt on the surface; steady works since August, he hails from a 9% debut barn; T/J combo has been productive of late with a 3-2-1-0 record the past couple weeks.
#15 DUKE OF CARTHANIA — Second best to eventual Canadian G3 winner Chapula last time, he’s a logical threat if he draws in from deep on the AE list; by hot freshman sire, his immediate female family were bigger hits on the dirt; that indicates he could also be a serious threat if this race winds up on the main track after recent a wet, cold spell earlier this week.
#16 WATER WALL — A non-factor even before meeting mild trouble in upper stretch in that debut; lacked much in the way of positional speed and the pace was slow; improvement needed.
#17 POW WOW PRINCE — Up the track vs. eventual Breeders’ Cup winner Structor first time on the turf, he finished much closer when trying the dirt at Keeneland; MTO candidate could show further improvement on this track, over which he blazed a bullet half-mile work earlier this month.
#18 UNWAVERING — Received some support on the Stars of Tomorrow card, but quickly backed out around the far turn and trailed the field of 10; MTO candidate will add blinkers, but probably needs more than that here.
