A collaborative effort by John Mucciolo, Keeler Johnson and Noel Michaels
Find some of this information and more inside the on-track Brisnet Betting Guide
Stars of Tomorrow II at Churchill Downs on Saturday, November 28 features a day full of juvenile racing where two-year-olds take center stage.
With most of the young runners competing for the first time or with very few starts under their belt, our experts weigh in with concise descriptions on each contender in each race!
The cornerstone of Saturday’s races are the Kentucky Jockey Club and Golden Rod Stakes, both stops on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and Road to the Kentucky Oaks!
Please click on a race in the list below to jump to the field of runners accompanied by their brief synopsis from our experts.
Race Index
- Race 1
- Race 2
- Race 3
- Race 4
- Race 5
- Race 6
- Race 7
- Race 8
- Race 9 – Golden Rod Stakes
- Race 10
- Race 11 – Kentucky Jockey Club
- Race 12
Race 1
#1 AREEMAA — Peitz pupil has made belated runs in both career starts and stretches out to a mile from the rail today. Chestnut filly has one winning sibling from two to have raced but will need improvement on Saturday; Albarado picks up the mount.
#2 FIRE CORAL — $420,000 Curlin filly debuts in this spot for Asmussen and shows a pair of local morning drills. Kentucky-bred is a half-sister to Grade 3 heroine Champagne Problems and will be dangerous if she runs to her pedigree for a fine two-year-old outfit.
#3 NEVER FORGET — Vickie Oliver pupil ran a good one when second on the course at first asking, for a conditioner is better second time out. Filly is out of a multiple Grade-2 winner and should be fit after a pair of recent drills. Corey Lanerie will be up.
#4 OMNIA — One of two in the cast for Ian Wilkes didn’t show much on debut sprinting here in September, but this barn is always better with experienced runners. Daughter of Munnings is the first out of a winning dam and shows five morning drills in advance of her return. Julien Leparoux rides.
#5 STREET OF DREAMS — $150,000 Street Sense filly was well-backed when a solid third at Keeneland at first asking. April foal has a pair of winning siblings, and she looms large with improvement coming off a bullet morning move on the oval. She is likely to have a big say in the outcome.
#6 GLORIOUS GAL — Daughter of Shanghai Bobby has not shown much when well defeated in a pair of local assignments. Filly did fire a bullet on the oval most recently, but she needs major improvement to challenge a solid field in the stretch.
#7 FOREIGN EXCHANGE — Lukas trainee is winless from four lifetime appearances but rates as a sneaky speed contender at a price. Congrats filly is out of a half-sister to sire Exchange Rate, and the filly did show speed at Saratoga in the summer. She will be forwardly placed second time off the shelf.
#8 BUTTERSCOTCH ROSE — Debuter from the barn of John Ortiz is by 13% first-out sire Street Sense and shows a long string of well-spaced drills in preparation of today. Bay is a full-sister to the Grade-1 placed stakes-winning juvenile Light the City, and she could be precocious like that lass. Channing Hill will be in the stirrups.
#9 BECKINSALE — Second timer from the McPeek shedrow got away slowly and rallied late to pass a few sprinting here. Curlin filly has a trio of two-year-old winning siblings and runs for a barn that is good first time going a route of ground. Chestnut will rally from off the pace once again.
#10 O SERAPHINA — Joe Sharp pupil showed brief speed prior to retreating in a debut at Keeneland. January foal was a $180,000 yearling and will improve today, especially if she runs to her bullet morning drill on the oval. Gabe Saez has the call for a solid second-out conditioner.
#11 BONBONS FLEUR — Michelle Lovell trainee brought $50,000 at Fasig-Tipton in May and makes her first afternoon appearance today. Daughter of 18% debut sire Twirling Candy is bred for the trip, but we will watch one before getting in her corner.
#12 GLAMOUR GIRL — Larry Jones trainee was third in a prior run at Churchill two back. Tonalist filly comes in fresh for a fine layoff outfit following subpar route attempt at Keeneland; dam is a half to Grade 1 winner Mass Media.
#13 JEWELED PRINCESS — Daughter of good young sire Cairo Prince was third behind a sharp winner over a sloppy, sealed oval at the distance at first calling. $160,000 yearling is the first out of this dam and runs for a trainer at 19% second time out overall. Gray might show more early interest today.
#14 AUCTION FEVER — David Fawkes trainee was second in a high-level maiden claiming event in her second race. $250,00 Super Saver lass is out of a Grade 1 winner, but she has to get faster in a hurry to be viewed as a viable contender from this post.
#15 MISS IS ZIPPY — Dunn charge never lifted her feet with softer and looks to be in a tough spot second time out. Filly was dead on the board on debut and would be a surprise stretching out with a class rise.
#16 KERTARA — Kentucky-bred is 0-for-10 and would be parked widest of all if she drew into the field. $2,200 purchase was a distant third in a sprint here most recently, and she looks to be in deep today.
Race 2
#1 FATE FACTOR — Block trainee missed by a neck in a similar event at Keeneland last time out. The Factor filly is out of a half-sister to Peruvian champion Al Qasr, and her steady improvement in 2019 makes her a prime contender from the rail. Bay has six winning siblings, four of which were turf graduates.
#2 GRAYSONSMACHO GAL — Mucho Macho Man lass has failed to hit the board from three career starts to date, including one on this course. Chestnut would be a surprise at this stage of her development.
#3 SWEET BAY — Second timer ran an even one sprinting on the dirt and intrigues in a route and grassy bow. Daughter of 12% turf stallion Munnings races for a conditioner who is capable at 13% first time turf. Chestnut could be forwardly placed from the break.
#4 DIAMOND HILL — Artie Schiller filly was 51-1 on debut and showed late interest on debut over a good course at Keeneland. Filly is out of and a half-sister to Group 1 winners, and we wouldn’t discount her chances at a big price.
#5 TAKE CHARGE PATTI — Paul McGee pupil has been unplaced from three races on the main oval and makes a turf debut in this spot. $260,000 daughter of Will Take Charge needs marked improvement to earn a share first time trying the lawn. Brian Hernandez, Jr. rides.
#6 CAREFREE HIGHWAY — $250,000 filly by Creative Cause is out of a half sister to top turf sprinter Mr. Nightlinger and could take to the lawn in a grassy debut. Romans pupil showed some late interest after a slow start in a dirt dash, and she came back with a solid half-mile move in the interim.
#7 SPOKEN WITH A KISS — Hard Spun filly brought just $10,000 at auction and she ran a clunker on debut. Bradley trainee hails from a fine turf family, so improvement is to be expected on the surface change; still hard to back for a barn at 2-for-56 first on the green.
#8 ELEGANT BAY — First timer by excellent debut sire Uncle Mo has a turf-winning sibling from a pair to have raced to date. Ortiz charge is a well-bred sort who could be precocious; keep an eye on the tote board.
#9 FALL MOON — Matthews charge has not come very close to winning from three career assignments and will add blinkers in this affair. Chestnut is hard to back with James Graham riding.
#10 FIONA POWER — Dangerous contender for Brad Cox was fourth after showing pace going long on the turf at Keeneland at first asking. Homebred goes for a barn at 34% second time turf, and she also picks up Geroux.
#11 CARIBBEAN KITTEN — Maker pupil passed a few runners late after being headstrong on debut at Keeneland. His two full-siblings won on the lawn, including 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) third Voting Control. Bay will move forward today for a solid second-out trainer.
#12 RAIN DANCE — Win contender puts blinkers on for a third lifetime appearance. Third on the Keeneland turf with similar last out, The Factor filly adds blinkers for Walsh second off the short absence. Filly counts Broodmare of the Year Weekend Surprise as her third dam.
#13 PALACE MISS — Florida-bred has flashed potential as of late, though both of her solid efforts came on the dirt. Palace Malice lass will be a late threat if she proves capable on the green in her second run on the Churchill turf.
#14 OSAKA GIRL — First Samurai filly was a useful third at Keeneland last time out for Lynch. Dam of this one is a half to a Grade 2 winner on the turf here, and this filly comes in fresh for a solid layoff barn. She makes sense if she draws into the field.
#15 UNFORESEEN — Filly out of a dam who is a full-sister to Archarcharch has posted fine results from two turf outings to date. Ian Wilkes trainee is on the improve, and she was favored in a big field at Keeneland most recently. Chris Landeros will aim to run them down in the stretch atop this lass.
#16 SEQUIN — Fleet daughter of Bayern has yet to live up to her $500,000 price tag, but she did show the ability to rate and finish in a turf sprint last out. Wesley Ward understudy is the one to beat if she gets in off the also-eligibles list.
#17 VELVET CRUSH — Main-Track Only entry has been runner-up in two straight following an unplaced debut for Brisset. $450,000 Tapit filly stayed on for third after showing pace on the dirt at Churchill most recently, and she could surely put it all together this afternoon.
#18 IRREPRESSIBLE — Main-Track Only contender tired after dueling for the lead on the oval last time out. $750,000 Into Mischief filly is from the female family of Gio Ponti and figures to improve with experience for Asmussen.
#19 MERITATEN — This main-track only entrant put forth arguably her best effort when an even fourth at Churchill Downs first time on the dirt. Well-bred War Front filly was produced from a full-sister to champion The Gurkha; James Graham will ride.
#20 LOADED — $250,000 Ghostzapper filly is main-track only player for Rusty Arnold. Bay has begun her career with a pair of runner-up finishes behind nice fillies, and she is the one to beat if the race washes off the lawn. Filly out of a Grade 1-placed dam won’t be a maiden for long.
Race 3
#1 RUBY Y’ALL — Gemologist youngster took an off-the-turf special weight race at Indiana Grand at first asking. Filly races for a barn at 22% with shippers, and the homebred lands in a field lacking a standout; exotics potential at a price.
#2 MIZZEN BEAU — $100,000 Mizzen Mast filly graduated at Keeneland over high-priced claiming foes in a first on the dirt, as well as with blinkers on for the initial time. February foal comes in fresh for 20% layoff trainer Norm Casse, and she has posted three morning drills on this oval.
#3 WISHED — Chestnut broke through in her first with blinkers on in advance of today, but she still looks overmatched against this cast. We will wait for her return to Indiana-bred racing.
#4 INDY TAKES CHARGE — Take Charge Indy filly is winless in four straight after a superb debut tally on this oval in the spring. Pat Bryne trainee has been second in two straight, however, and the addition of blinkers could put her over the top today.
#5 MYERS TIGER — Flint second timer rolled home a daylight winner at Indiana Grand at first go and will try open company today. Bay didn’t come home swiftly in that victory, but she runs for a top barn with shippers, and she also uses Churchill Downs as her home base.
#6 RISING SEAS — First foal out of a stakes-winning sprinter graduated in style second time out at this venue. Ben Colebrook charge has a lot of pace and will be vying for the lead early in her first with winners. Homebred is an obvious contender if she gains the edge early on under Lanerie.
#7 JOSIE — Talented daughter of Race Day has won or placed in all five career starts to date. Cox trainee adds blinkers following a close third-place finish at Keeneland. Half-sister to three-time graded hero Prospective broke her maiden at Churchill Downs, and she is working in swift fashion since adding the hood; Geroux rides.
#8 BLACK KAT TAPS — Joe Sharp pupil drew off to a convincing win over high-priced claimers second time out. Tapiture filly drilled a bullet half-mile in the interim, and she will benefit from having the pace of the race drawn directly to her inside.
#9 OVER THE BLUES — Lynch second timer defeated modest maiden claiming runners on this surface at first offering. April foal races for a trainer who is 19% with a maiden winner last time, and we like the aggressive move from the smart barn. Manny Franco inherits the mount.
#10 MISS FIRECRACKER — Hiles claim romped at Keeneland over a sloppy, sealed surface second time out while facing softer. Cairo Prince filly draws widest of all and will need a major step forward to challenge the field inside the final furlong today.
Race 4
#1 SHELLEY’S GEM — First timer gets a tricky rail post for her debut. Tale of Ekati filly is out of a stakes winner, and both of her siblings have graduated, but we will watch one for low-profile connections in this dash.
#2 ELSIE’S FIRST — Daughter of 11% debut sire Tapizar is the first foal to run out of a stakes winner. McPeek trainee shows promising morning drills, but the barn is just 5% on debut. Santo Sanjur will ride.
#3 MOTOWN GIRL — $230,000 daughter of 15% debut sire Uncle Mo is a full-sister to Grade 3 star Name Changer, who did some of his best work going two turns. April foal hails from a good debut barn and is from the same family as champion Afleet Alex. She could be a runner; watch the tote for more clues.
#4 VERUCA — Major contender from the barn of Cherie DeVaux was an excellent third in a turf dash at Keeneland on debut while taking a lot of money at the windows. $335,000 daughter of good win early sire Twirling Candy is out of a dam who is sibling to a pair of very good turf performers. February foal may be best on the lawn, but she is a must use today, nonetheless.
#5 FLATOYA — Flatter filly has been consistent from three solid races to kick start her career. Lynch pupil was a close fourth going one-mile on this oval two back, and the return to six panels here makes sense. Speedy lass will have Leparoux riding for a solid juvenile trainer.
#6 SILVER TAKE CHARGE — Gray filly is a half-sister to a Grade-3 winning two-year-old among three stakes runners. $170,000 juvenile purchase has trained steadily for two months and could be live for McPeek, who will give a leg up to his local money rider Hernandez.
#7 KAPIOLANI — Daughter of Empire Maker is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner and sire Eskendereya, and she will be a runner if she lives up to her pedigree. Walsh pupil will likely get better as the distances increase, though her recent three-furlongs drill is intriguing. March foal races for a 7% debut barn and will have Gaffalione up.
#8 MY SUGAR PIE — $85,000 two-year-old purchase was produced from a multiple stakes-winning sprinter, and she goes for a barn at 15% on debut. Kenneally trainee is bred to be precocious and the works hint that she will be ready to fire at first asking. Corey Lanerie will be in the stirrups.
#9 TALE OF MONA — Second timer was mostly outrun in a first offering at Keeneland for Wiggins. The Tale of the Cat filly is out of a half-sister to Grade 1 queen Marley’s Freedom, but she needs a big step forward to challenge today.
#10 BEACH TIME — Daughter of 11% debut stud Bernardini could be the one to beat for 19% debut conditioner Brad Cox. Godolphin homebred is from an emerging family with her dam being a half-sister to Grade 1 sprinter Emcee, from the same family as red-hot sire Constitution; Florent Geroux is 30% for the barn as of late.
#11 GYPSY WIND JEANNE — Flatter filly is sibling to a pair of winners and shows moderate works in preparation of her unveiling. Von Hemel pupil was a $65,000 Fasig-Tipton buy in the spring for a barn that is better with experienced runners. She could need a race.
#12 CLOUDBUSTER — Lukas charge is a $260,000 daughter of Empire Maker who is bred to run long and on the lawn. Kentucky-bred would be a huge surprise for a conditioner who is winless with his last 101 first-time starters.
#13 JILTED BRIDE — Asmussen pupil has run well in both lifetime assignments, including a close third beneath the Twin Spires at first asking. $150,000 daughter of Wicked Strong has a half-sister who was a stakes horse as a juvenile; win contender smoked a bullet five-eighths on the oval most recently.
#14 DOUBLE THAT — Midnight Lute filly shows some solid morning drills for her debut race, but trainer Ian Wilkes 14-for-234 first time out. Kentucky-bred will be better in her second lifetime appearance.
#15 KISS MO — Uncle Mo first timer is out of a multiple stakes queen and has intrigue on debut. January foal was a $150,000 yearling buy and she has posted five successive morning moves on this surface, with a stout :48 flat from the gate most recently. Declan Cannon will ride.
#16 DYNAMITE GIFT — Lovell charge was a decent third two back on the course and will make the turf-to-dirt move today. Daughter of Justin Phillip will be coming from off the pace as a top-three contender with improvement for a trainer searching for an initial win at the meeting.
Race 5
#1 Flug: Essentially just passed tired horses in his debut going a mile, but that race was rained off the turf and he’s entered for grass this time around. The Factor’s progeny win at a respectable 14% rate on the lawn, and hot jockey Florent Geroux has accepted the mount. Bullet half-mile breeze on November 18 adds to the appeal. A longshot with a chance if race stays on the turf.
#2 Duke of Carthania: Son of hot young sire Constitution hit the board in his first two runs, both on grass, and tackles his longest race to date. Late runner has been flattening out in the stretch but figures to save ground from post two, possibly enhancing stretch kick. Trainer Mark Casse wins at a 26% rate with runners beaten as the favorite in their previous start, and jockey Julien Leparoux has been on fire over the last week. Lots to like for successful connections.
#3 Cardiac Kid: Finished second over this course and distance in September after rallying to lead in the stretch. Form so far suggests 1 1/16 miles could be pushing his stamina limitations, but the progeny of American Pharoah are winning left and right on grass (19% strike rate) and Cardiac Kid has been knocking heads with Grade 1-types like Decorated Invader and Gozilla. Just needs to find more in the homestretch.
#4 Blackberry Wine: Twice placed going a mile on grass, but pedigree is geared top and bottom toward success running long on dirt, and the progeny of Oxbow win at just an 8% rate on grass. The distance is right for this Calumet Farm homebred, but he seems to have hit a ceiling on turf and will benefit if this race is rained on to the main track.
#5 Ahsad: Stoutly-bred colt adds Lasix after a series of so-so efforts running long on turf and dirt. Switches back to turf this time around, a 20% move for trainer Daniel Peitz, but will have to find more to challenge for victory.
#6 Shared Sense: Godolphin homebred boasts a strongly dirt-oriented pedigree and has shown talent on the Churchill main track, producing an eye-catching 100 Brisnet Late Pace rating to finish second by a half-length three weeks ago. Hot trainer Brad Cox strikes at a 32% rate with runners switching from dirt to turf, but Shared Sense could be just as dangerous if this race is rained on to the main track. Leading jockey Corey Lanerie has been enlisted to ride. A contender regardless of surface.
#7 Autumn Jett: Half-sister Unzip Me was a 10-time stakes-winning turf sprinter, so when coupled with a dose of stamina from stoutly-bred sire Honor Code, there’s every reason to believe Autumn Jett can be effective running long on grass. Trainer Al Stall, Jr. strikes at a 22% rate with first-time starters and work tab looks solid with a steady string of half-mile moves, including a near-bullet in September. In with a shot first-time out.
#8 High Holy: Showed little in two starts sprinting on dirt, and pedigree doesn’t offer a lot of hope for improvement running long on grass. Loses Leparoux this time around and needs to take a big step forward from a Brisnet speed rating perspective. Looking elsewhere for the winner.
#9 Smirk: Half-brother to five-time graded stakes-winning mare Elate is bred to relish 1 1/16 miles. Sire Blame was a tried-and-true dirt runner, but the majority of his top foals have been at their best on grass, including French classic winner Senga. Mott has been faring better with first-time starters in recent years, so while Smirk is bred to be at his best with maturity, don’t assume he can’t be a factor on debut.
#10 Matheson: Faded while sprinting on dirt at Keeneland, but City Zip’s foals win at a 15% rate on grass. Asmussen and Santana have been a hot trainer/jockey combo over the last two months, striking at a 22% rate, though Asmussen is primarily a dirt trainer and scores at just a 14% rate when switching runners to grass for the first time. Bullet five-eighths breeze on October 13 is encouraging. Figures to take money thanks to connections, but needs a step forward.
#11 Bayou Prospector: Never challenged in debut sprinting at Kentucky Downs, but Ian Wilkes rarely cranks his first-time starters and an improved effort could be on the line for Saturday. Then again, sire and damsire have produced just 7% winners on turf, and pedigree hints at speed over stamina. Work tab has been solid since debut and would be an intriguing runner on dirt, less so on turf.
#12 Casanova Kitten: Son of top turf sire Kitten’s Joy is bred for grass and trainer Wesley Ward strikes at a 28% rate with first-time starters. Full-brother Legendofthekitten was a three-time winner on grass, scoring two of those victories running 1 1/16 miles or farther. Clearly the one to beat if this race stays on the turf.
#13 Continental Clash: $550,000 auction purchase has been soundly beaten in four runs on dirt. Pedigree doesn’t scream turf and trainer Dale Romans wins at just a 7% rate with runners trying grass for the first time. Also-eligible has tactical speed but will be hard-pressed to stick around for the finish if he draws in.
#14 Mishko: Figures to inherit stamina and grass affinity from his long-winded sire Temple City. Workouts haven’t been eye-catching, but an abundance of slow five-furlong moves suggest an emphasis on stamina over speed. Will need scratches to draw in, but would then be saddled with a wide draw. Tempted to let this one run once before jumping on the bandwagon.
#15 Wicked Worry: Sire and damsire were honest and durable Grade 1 winners running long on dirt. Would arguably fare better on the main track than grass, though trainer Eddie Keneally strikes at a 21% rate with first-time starters on the lawn, and he’s 3-for-9 over the last 60 days when teaming up with jockey Declan Cannon. Sire’s progeny win at an excellent 28% rate in the mud, so wait and see if this race gets transferred to the main track.
#16 Strike Appeal: Never challenged when trying turf at Keeneland last month, but had previously run well against Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner Maxfield and Street Sense Stakes runner-up Wheat King on dirt. Son of Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Tonalist might be more dangerous on dirt, but still needs a step forward to challenge. Figures to break from wide post if he draws in, but doesn’t have much wiggle room for overcoming a tough trip.
#17 Alex Joon: Finished mid-pack after a slow start in his debut, but Asmussen wins at a 22% rate with second-time starters, so a sharper start could produce a better effort. Son of Flatter will only run if this race is transferred to the main track, in which case he has hot jockey Santana named to ride. Flatter’s progeny strike at a 19% rate in the mud, suggesting this $250,000 yearling purchase will be a factor if he gets to run.
#18 In Sky We Trust: Beaten at least 5 ½ lengths in all three starts to date and seems to have reached a form plateau. Entered for the main track only, but will break from a very wide post if he draws in. Appears to be in deep for a trainer who is 0-for-18 at the current Churchill Downs meet.
#19 Deanos Cape: Hasn’t shown a whole lot in three starts under a variety of conditions. Leading jockey Corey Lanerie is named to ride, but son of The Factor is entered for the main track only and will need a lot of scratches to draw in. If lucky enough to run, wide draw will compromise the chances of this inexpensive $8,000 yearling purchase.
#20 Hunt the Front: Outran expectations to finish third on debut at Aqueduct despite a poor start. Bred top and bottom for stamina, and Revolutionary sires an eye-catching 22% winners in the mud. Hall of Fame trainer Nick Zito rarely wins with first-time starters, so Hunt the Front’s encouraging debut is noteworthy. Will be a player if he draws in, but that’s a big if for this main track-only entrant.
Race 6
#1 Improbable Story: Two-time winner against easier company has used his tactical speed to dominate rivals. Decisive allowance victory at Mountaineer yielded a 91 Brisnet speed rating, the highest in this field, but gelding gets a class test on the Kentucky circuit. Trainer David Rider wins at a 27% rate with shippers, but enters this gelding for a $75,000 tag, hinting we’re not looking at a future stakes winner.
#2 Lykan: Finished third against similar company at Churchill three weeks ago, one start after winning at Keeneland with an 89 Brisnet speed rating. Tactical speed is an asset, but will need a clean break to get clear and avoid muddy kickback.
#3 Naughty Alfred: Graduated for a claiming tag at Churchill in September, then failed to fire when stretching out in distance for new trainer Wesley Hawley, who wins at a 22% with runners making their second start off a claim. Strong mud pedigree makes this son of Munnings a rebound candidate while cutting back in distance.
#4 Chipofftheoldblock: Faded after rallying to challenge in a five-furlong dash on November 23. Son of Ready’s Image scored his lone victory against state-bred company in Indiana and is entered for a $75,000 tag on Saturday. Figures to be a pace presence, but will need a big step forward to challenge for victory.
#5 The Devils Back: Adds Lasix and gives dirt a try and after breaking his maiden for a $25,000 tag over the Tapeta track at Woodbine. He’ll race under allowance conditions on Saturday while making his first start for new trainer Wayne Catalano, who is 1-for-17 at the current Churchill meet. The progeny of sire Prospective win at an 18% rate in the mud, so the potential to handle Saturday’s track is certainly here.
#6 American Butterfly: Experienced colt drops in class after finishing mid-pack in a trio of stakes, including two Grade 1 events. Impressively-bred son of American Pharoah brings competitive Brisnet speed ratings to the fold and has the tactical speed to be a player from the outset while cutting back in distance. An obvious contender.
#7 Art Collector: Lone victory came on grass and initial try on dirt produced so-so results. On the bright side, sire and damsire produce a high percentage of off-track winners, and Art Collector splashed his way through a sloppy track to record a bullet half-mile breeze on November 22. A threat from off the pace.
#8 Shippingport: 1-for-1 on dirt and returns to his seemingly favored surface after finishing off the board in a turf stakes at Keeneland. Tactical speed is an asset and leading jockey Corey Lanerie takes the mount for trainer Gary Simms, who is 2-for-5 (100% in-the-money) with his recent runners switching from turf to dirt. A logical alternative to the favorite.
#9 Shanghai Nights: High-percentage trainer Tom Amoss brings this speed-oriented colt to Churchill off three efforts against easier company at Indiana Grand. Entered for a $75,000 claiming tag and needs to take a big step forward in terms of Brisnet speed ratings. Hot jockey Florent Geroux makes this son of Shanghai Bobby an interesting play from a human connections standpoint, but based on racetrack form, others appear to be better bets.
#10 Bango: Hit the board in his first three starts before breaking through with a decisive victory over this track and distance four weeks ago. Addition of blinkers seemed to make a difference, and his impressive pace-tracking victory yielded a 90 Brisnet speed rating. Lots to like from this son of Congrats, who boasts a solid wet-track pedigree.
#11 Little Menace: $460,000 yearling purchase finished second behind Bango when debuting over this track and distance on November 2. Ran well dueling for the lead through a :21 4/5 quarter and can improve second-time out for trainer Steve Asmussen, who wins at a 22% rate with such runners. Son of leading sire Into Mischief picks up hot jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. and warrants respect.
Race 7
#1 Heir of Light: Finished last behind future Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) winner British Idiom in the Alcibiades Stakes (G1) at Keeneland, but previously won over a mile at Churchill in gate-to-wire fashion. Hot jockey Julien Leparoux stays aboard and near-bullet five-furlong breeze on November 17 suggests this filly is ready to bounce back. A definite pace presence from the rail draw.
#2 Swiss Skydiver: The 90 Brisnet speed rating Swiss Skydiver fired on debut rates as the best in this field. Her performance was eye-catching as she overcame a slow start to blow past the field and score by 5 ½ lengths. Trainer Kenny McPeek rarely wins with first-time starters, making her huge debut especially noteworthy. Stretches out in distance on Saturday, but McPeek strikes at a 21% rate with runners tackling a route for the first time. Sire Daredevil romped over a sloppy track in the 2014 Champagne Stakes (G1). Clearly the filly to beat.
#3 Three D Flag: Ellis Park maiden winner finished behind Grade 1 winners British Idiom, Perfect Alibi, and Abscond in her two defeats. Drops in class out of the Alcibiades Stakes (G1) for hot trainer/jockey team of Asmussen and Santana. Sire Super Saver won the 2010 Kentucky Derby over a sloppy track at Churchill Downs. Needs to find more to challenge for victory, but looms an exotics contender.
#4 Queenofcatniphill: Benefited from a slow pace to score a gate-to-wire maiden claiming victory at Keeneland last month. Brisnet speed rating came back on the light side, and the waters get deeper on Saturday. Trainer Matt Shirer succeeds at a 22% rate with new claiming acquisitions, but Queenofcatniphill is entered for a $75,000 tag and will need a big step forward to contend.
#5 Emily’s Oasis: Hasn’t missed the board in four starts on dirt and turf, breaking through with a 4 ½-length triumph over this track and distance last month. 87 Brisnet speed rating is solid and Ian Wilkes seems to have this $325,000 daughter of American Pharoah heading in the right direction. Finished behind future stakes winner Finite two starts back and looms a logical contender to win right back.
#6 Beautiful Trauma: Narrowly beaten by Heir of Light over this track and distance in September before cutting back to seven furlongs and graduating easily. Return to a mile shouldn’t be a concern since high-percentage trainer Tom Amoss strikes at a 28% rate with runners stretching out from sprints to routes. Sire Tapiture was a juvenile graded stakes winner at Churchill Downs and sires 24% winners in the mud. Promising filly needs to improve slightly from a Brisnet speed rating perspective, but is otherwise hard to knock.
#7 Copper Nickel: Rates as the field’s most accomplished runner by virtue of her easy stakes win at Indiana Grand. Quick half-mile breeze on November 25 signals her readiness, but with a career-best Brisnet speed rating of 70, she’ll need to take a step forward while facing tougher company on the Kentucky circuit.
#8 Lady Jenneviere: Faces winners for the first time but has actually crossed the wire first on two occasions, having been disqualified from a maiden win at Kentucky Downs. Fired off an 83 Brisnet speed rating over the Churchill main track four weeks ago and can improve again for hot trainer Brad Cox, who has assigned top jockey Corey Lanerie the mount. The progeny of Mr Speaker win at a 20% rate in the mud. An exotics contender.
#9 Bayerness: $350,000 auction purchase romped by 4 ¼ lengths on debut at Keeneland, earning a competitive 87 Brisnet speed rating despite a troubled start. Trainer Cherie DeVaux is 2-for-9 at Churchill this meet and enlists the services of hot jockey Florent Geroux. Daughter of Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Bayern is bred to stretch out and could flash even more speed than on debut if she gets a clean start. Yet another logical challenger in a deep and competitive field.
#10 Duplicitous: Debut winner at Indiana Grand was soundly beaten against allowance company at Keeneland. Adds blinkers for third start and should be a pace factor, but appears overmatched in the speed rating department.
#11 Competitive Fire: Faded badly after tracking the pace in a 1 1/16-mile allowance event at Churchill Downs last month. Previously handled a muddy, sealed track when romping to a debut win at Indiana Grand, but Brisnet speed ratings are on the light side. Needs to find more while breaking from a wide post.
#12 Miss Imperfection: Splashed through a sloppy, sealed track to break her maiden over this track and distance, but this daughter of sprinter Majesticperfection only beat three rivals while posting a modest 74 Brisnet speed rating. A step forward will be necessary to vie for victory, especially while breaking from the far outside post.
Race 8
#1 Oxide: Dam has produced two winners from two starters, though both were modest claimers. Trainer Eddie Keneally wins at a respectable 15% rate with first-time starters, and sire Golden Land’s progeny strike at a 19% rate on debut. Work tab is solid and leading jockey Corey Lanerie accepts the mount. A contender at a bit of a price.
#2 Marine Mission: Dam was a sprinter and her two previous foals have followed suit. Distance should be ideal for this son of Mission Impazible, trainer Michael Lauer is an infrequent winner with first-time starters, striking at an 8% rate. A wait-and-see approach might be best with this one.
#3 Mailman Money: Sire Goldencents had a ton of speed and sires 18% debut winners, though dam’s lone victory came running long on grass. Trainer Bret Calhoun does solid work with first-timers, but work tab isn’t particularly flashy. This $150,000 auction purchase is a tough read; leaning elsewhere for win purposes.
#4 Instafamous: City Zip sires 19% winners in the mud and jockey Tyler Gaffalione is hot with 22% winners at the current Churchill meet. Dam Tara Court is a daughter of stamina influence Giant’s Causeway and scored her lone win going a mile and 70 yards, so there’s some stamina in the bottom half of Instafamous’ pedigree. Steve Asmussen-trainee might show improvement when stretching out down the road.
#5 On Tilt: Asmussen’s second runner gets go-to jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. for debut. Sire Competitive Edge was a juvenile Grade 1 winner and is siring 20% debut winners, plus 23% winners in the mud. Lots to like about this Winchell Thoroughbreds runner, a January foal who brings a steady work tab to the equation. A must-use on all tickets.
#6 Jack’s Advantage: Showed plenty of speed in morning works last spring and fired off another sharp move from the Keeneland starting gate on November 7. Trainer Kenny McPeek wins at just a 5% rate with first-time starters, but this half-brother to the graded stakes-placed turf miler Real News might have enough speed to challenge on debut.
#7 Whiskey Chaser: Plenty of speed in this gelding’s pedigree as dam and two half-siblings were all sprinters. Other stats are less encouraging though; Danza sires just 3% debut winners and 8% off-track winners, while trainer is winless with his last 23 first-time starters. Looking elsewhere for win candidates.
#8 Numidian: Faded steadily in his debut sprinting at Keeneland and will need a big step forward to contend. Recent works have been similar to pre-debut breezes, and while Macho Uno sires 19% winners in the mud, it’s tough to endorse Numidian off his no-show first run.
#9 Elusive Ruler: Threw down a bullet five-furlong breeze on November 23, but trainer Ian Wilkes strikes at just a 6% rate with first-time starters. Son of Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Empire Maker is bred to run long and might turn out nice down the road, but probably isn’t cranked to win this six-furlong dash.
#10 Cornbred Kingdom: Son of juvenile champion Uncle Mo out of Empire Maker mare is bred for the classics and counts Arizona Oaks winner Free My Soul as a half-sibling. Uncle Mo sires 21% winners in the mud and 15% debut winners, more encouraging stats than trainer Dale Romans’ 9% strike rate with first-time starters. Hot jockey Florent Geroux has the mount. Might contend, but should prove best running longer.
#11 Call Me Later: Sire Dialed In and trainer Mike Maker don’t strike remarkably often with first-time starters, and dam—a daughter of the stoutly-bred Giant’s Causeway—was unraced as a juvenile. Work tab includes a trio of stamina-building workouts and Dialed In won the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby (G1), suggesting stamina will be this colt’s forte.
#12 Digital: Half-brother Impressive Edge placed in the Peter Pan Stakes (G3) and Iowa Derby (G3) going two turns on dirt, but this $260,000 auction purchase might inherit a dose of speed from Into Mischief, a fast sprinter and successful stallion who sires 15% debut winners. Bret Calhoun-trainee breezed a bullet half-mile in :47 2/5 on November 18 and looms as the horse to beat.
#13 Banks Island: Godolphin homebred already has four runs to his credit and cuts back to a shorter distance after fading over 1 1/16 miles last month. Son of Tapit has kept decent company and should appreciate the chance to dash six furlongs. Clearly the best of the experienced runners, but 0-for-4 record suggests this also-eligible will be vulnerable to talented first-timers if he draws in.
#14 Son of Ga Ga: Son of Algorithms will break from a wide post if he draws in. Has shown some speed in morning works, and dam was a two-time stakes-placed sprinter, but trainer Doug Anderson wins at just a 6% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weight company. A fringe contender if allowed to start.
#15 Big Biz: Hails from a productive family as dam has produced five winners from six starters. Fed Biz sires 16% debut winners and trainer Brian Williamson has gone 3-for-13 at Churchill Downs this meet. Ships in from Hawthorne with some fast workouts under his belt and can factor if he draws in off the also-eligible list.
#16 Willfred: Faded from a pace-tracking position to finish seventh at 73-1 on debut two weeks ago. Cuts back slightly in distance for trainer William Fires, whose win percentage jumps from 7% overall to 12% with second-time starters. Wide draw will be tough to overcome if scratches allow Willfred to start.
Race 9
Golden Rod Stakes (G2) $300,000, two-year-old fillies, 1 1/16-miles
#1 FINITE (7-5) – Steve Asmussen trainee followed up turf sprint Kentucky Downs maiden win with a six-length stakes win last time when stretched out to a mile on the dirt here at Churchill in the Rags to Riches Stakes. As a stakes winner in great form for the meet’s leading trainer, Finite owns the field’s top Prime Power rating of 138.1 as she makes her graded stakes debut today looking for her third straight win. Owns plenty of early speed, but showed the ability to rate a little bit last time out and doesn’t need the clear lead to win, and all that is good news today with this stretchout to two turns for the first time at 1 1/16 miles. Faces other speed horses today as the field’s 7-5 morning line favorite, so this won’t be an easy task and others might offer more value. Nevertheless, this filly is already a proven winner over the track and looms the horse to beat.
#2 TURTLE TRAX (6-1) – Comes into this stakes debut off of two straight wins at Keeneland and Churchill, both times at 6 ½ furlongs. In addition to taking a big leap up in class today, this horse is also stretching out to a mile for the first time. Trainer Ian Wilkes wins 12% with stretchouts from sprints to routes, and has had a solid Churchill fall meet overall with 8 wins from 42 starters (19%), so anything is possible with a horse like this in red-hot form coming off two big wins. However, the speed figures just aren’t there yet for this horse, who owns this field’s sixth-best Prime Power rating at 127.0. Improvement will be needed in order to win or land in the exotics.
#3 SHE CAN’T SING (8-1) – Began her career as a turf horse for trainer Chris Block, who unveiled her for a solid turf debut at Arlington, which she almost won, followed by a somewhat disappointing fourth-place finish versus Keeneland turf route maidens on Oct. 4. Everything changed last time out, however, when Block switched this filly to the main track here at this track and distance last time out. She Can’t Sing responded with a sharp wire-to-wire winner where she draw off through the stretch to score by seven lengths with a good 87 Bris speed rating. Certainly has done nothing wrong on this surface so far, and already owns a two-turn dirt win, which is more than some of today’s top competition can boast. Nevertheless, this will be a tougher task. She got away with some fairly easy splits on the lead last time, and will face a lot more heat up on the lead today in this race that features other high-quality fast rivals who also have good early speed and probably will also want the lead.
#4 BEAN (12-1) – Began her career in impressive fashion with an Arlington Polytrack win at 5 ½ furlongs for Arlington’s leading trainer Larry Rivelli, who had tons of similar winners in Chicagoland this summer, but few as impressive as this one. Bean followed up that debut with a runner-up stakes finish, also on an artificial surface, in the Presque Isle Downs Masters behind repeat next-out winner New York Style. Last time was favored for the first dirt track attempt in a 6 ½ furlong attempt here at Churchill, but we never got to see what she was made of that day after she stumbled out of the gate and lost the rider. Reappears today in another ambitious stakes spot, not only trying again on the main track but also stretching out this time to 1 1/16 miles. Before you write her off at 12-1 odds, you should note that this $340k weanling purchase is not only bred precociously, but also bred for a distance by Bernardini. The dam has not only produced four winners, but also note that all four of those prior winners won at age 2 and two were stakes winners. Florent Geroux picks up the mount. Prime Power is big for this horse at 135.3, which is second best of these. All systems go today at a nice price.
#5 LADY GLAMOUR (12-1) – Started her career beating maiden claimers and later earned the second lifetime win in a nw2l allowance at Ellis Park at 6 ½ furlongs. Two of three stakes attempts so far have been competitive, first with a third in the six-furlong Debutante here at Churchill over the summer, and then again last time back here at Churchill with a second in the Rags to Riches. Handled the one-mile distance last time and this additional stretch out should be ok, but in the Rags to Riches she was well-beaten by Finite, and will need not only need to turn the tables on that rival but also knock-off some other high quality rivals. Trainer Larry Demeritte has been excellent here at the current meet with limited starters, winning twice and landing in the exacta five times with six runners. However, few of those horses were in spots this tough, and anything better than a minor placing for this filly seems like it will be a tough assignment vs. Finite and the rest of these.
#6 HIS GLORY (20-1) – This horse has really stepped up in the two most recent races since stretching out to this 1 1/16-mile route distance here at Churchill, placing second in the Grade 2 Pocahontas, six lengths clear of the third horse, and then winning big in wire-to-wire fashion last time over an allowance field that included today’s rival Motu. Earned this field’s highest dirt route speed rating, and she’s obviously be tough here of able to repeat or even improve upon that last effort. Set a legit pace last time, but did benefit from a clear lead and today’s pace scenario will be more difficult with pressure likely from Finite and She Can’t Sing. From a purely odds value standpoint, she’s probably a better bet at 7-2 odds on the morning line than favored Finite at 7-5, so that’s definitely something to consider when placing your wagers.
#7 IVYETSU (12-1) – Blew the break and lost all chance at the start in six-furlong career debut at Keeneland, but then quickly made amends last time out when she stretched out. Got a better start, stalked the pace, took charge, and drew off to a big win at this track and distance in an off-the-turf race. Speed figure lags behind the top ratings of the horses in this field, but we surely haven’t yet seen the best of this horse yet and more strong improvement is possible. Tough meet for trainer Rusty Arnold can get a lot better in a hurry with a victory in this spot. Best chance at success here would seem to be from a pace standpoint stalking the pace. If there is a speed meltdown, this filly will be sitting in a good spot and could come rolling by late at a price in the best case scenario.
#8 MOTU (5-1) – Lost to His Glory last time out, and at least will need to turn the tables on that rival in order to be successful today. Earned a big speed rating in the maiden win two races ago at six furlongs at Keeneland, and then ran respectably for second at this 1 1/16-mile distance last time out, and all that amounts to a 132.1 Prime Power rating, which is only good enough for third in this field. Draws a tough outside post today going two turns, but nevertheless could find herself in a good spot from a pace perspective, stalking what should turn out to be a contested pace. If you like His Glory, you should also take a look at this horse for an underneath spot in your exotics.
Race 10
#1 SOMETHING NATURAL (12-1) – Dirt track debut last time was a rousing success with a win at Indiana on the heels of a pair of career-opening losses on the grass. Added Lasix also seemed to do to the trick as this horse’s Bris speed rating rose to a solid 80 in that victory. There is plenty of reason for optimism based on that win, but things will get a lot more difficult here today, not only with the rise up to face winners for the first time into this tough allowance spot, but also with the circuit switch from Indiana to Kentucky. This one-mile dirt race will be this horse’s first ever one-turn try, and you can’t count out any horse sent out by this Brad Cox barn, which has won 11-of-44 starts at the meet for 25% wins. The Prime Power rating of 116.3 is only good enough for 12th best in this field, but it can be tough to resist using a horse from this barn at 12-1 odds in your exotics.
#1a AE AUTOMATE (12-1) – Maiden win came at a flat mile at Ellis Park three races ago, which is a good sign, but so far the first two outings against winners since then have been non-competitive finishes including one on the dirt and one on the turf. Part of a live entry along with the #1 horse if able to draw in, but is mired deep on the also eligible list.
#2 OFF THE MEDS (8-1) – Got rained off the turf in second lifetime start, and that twist of fate made all the difference for this horse who improved strongly and earned the maiden win here at Churchill at this one mile distance on the dirt following a big loss on the grass in the career debut. The winning Bris speed rating of 90 looks good and was the best last-race speed rating in this field, but his Prime Power rating of 121.3 is sixth best and indicates this horse still has more improvement needed in order to repeat at this allowance level. Trainer Ian Wilkes having a solid Churchill fall meet with 8 wins from 42 starters (19%). Looks dangerous sitting in a good spot off the pace based on the big fig last out, so must respect at 8-1 morning-line odds.
#3 SILVER STATE (7-2) – Steve Asmussen runner won at first asking last time out, dead heating maidens while nearly 10 lengths clear of the third horse with Asmussen’s main man Ricardo Santana aboard. That effort looks even better now that the distant how horse, as well as the horse he dead heated with, have both come back to win their next starts. Prime power rating of 130.9 places him first in this field. The horse to beat.
#4 MR HOOVER (30-1) – Done nothing wrong so far on the racetrack, having won his only career outing so far, which came on a muddy track at Indiana Grand last month. Won by eight lengths, and the distant place horse came back to graduate in his next start. Perhaps that is why they have opted for an ambitious placing for this horse in his second lifetime start, shipping from Indiana To Churchill Downs for trainer Matt Shirer, who has won twice at this meet. The main obstacles to this horse’s success today, however, are the fact that this horse is moving from Indiana state-bred competition last time into way tougher open company today, and the speed rating that this horse earned in the first start was not very fast.
#5 FEELING IT (20-1) – Needed four outings to get the maiden win, and graduated at Saratoga but against maiden claimers in a 5 1/2F race. The first race against winners was a well-beaten fifth-place finish at 6F at Keeneland, and he will need to do much more in order to turn things around against this field. Stretching out, but trainer D. Wayne Lukas has only eight wins with his last 100 starters stretching from sprints to routes.
#6 WELLS BAYOU (4-1) – Went wire-to-wire in career debut, which was a six-furlong sprint race at Keeneland in the slop with a solid speed rating when bet down to favoritism in that first start, which is never a bad sign. That debut is something to build on for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox, who wins 26% going sprint to route (similar to the barn’s 25% win percentage in 2019 and at the Churchill fall meet). Prime power rating of 127.9 is third best in this field, and this horse by Lookin at Lucky is absolutely bred to be better going long than short. Looks promising today for a power stable at 4-1 odds on the morning line.
#7 NECKER ISLAND (4-1) – Started career in a tough Saratoga maiden race and lost to repeat winning Three Technique that day before exiting that spot and going on to win at second asking in wire-to-wire fashion last time out here at Churchill. Both outings so far were at seven furlongs, so this slight stretch to one-mile makes sense. Speed rating of 89 last time and the Prime Power rating of 130.6 is second best in the field. Trainer Stan Hough has been great at this season’s Churchill meet, winning with 3 of 8 starters and with 6 of 8 in the exacta so far. Hard not to put this guy in your exacta boxes in this spot based on what we’ve seen so far.
#8 SPRAWL (8-1) – Nice two-turn maiden win two races ago for trainer Bill Mott at Keeneland was followed up by an ambitious placement last time out in a defeat in the $120K Street Sense Stakes. Certainly too early to give up based on that defeat by South Bend and some other tough rivals in the stakes race, especially given the class relief today back in this realistic allowance race. Would have preferred to see this horse back in a two-turn spot, since the one-turn races so far haven’t been as good, but this horse cannot be counted out due to the high quality of the maiden win.
#9 BEYOND GONE (2O-1) – Won the maiden back at Saratoga in a NY-bred sprint race, and while that victory was nice, this horse has yet to be able to follow it up with another similar good effort in the four outings so far against winners, which came in a variety of different spots, going long and short, turf or dirt. Likely to be good enough to find a spot to get the allowance win under his best at or near this level, but that day probably will not be today against what looks like an extraordinarily tough field facing him in this race.
#10 OLLY WONDER (15-1) – Won big in first start, which was in a much cheaper kind of maiden race going 6 ½ furlongs at Belterra, but the Bris speed rating of 87 earned for that victory indicates that this horse is far from a slouch. Stretches out now for trainer Paulo Lobo (0-for-8 with first-time routers), and this trainer is a master of placing his runners in clever spots where they can win. The Prime Power rating for this horse is not giving him much of a shot (11th best in the field at 116.9), but this horse’s dam has already produced a stake winner and he’s worth using in your exotics at 15-1 odds on the morning line.
#11 STRONG TIDE (20-1) – All six career races so far have come at Indiana Grand, and the win came against state-breds in a 5 ½-furlong race back in August. Winless in the last three outings against softer competition. Did show improvement last time when stretched out to a route, running second in a good effort from post 12, so if there is something to be optimistic about, that’s it. Nevertheless, this horse has never run a figure fast enough to indicate he’ll be able to handle this level of competition in this much tougher race on this circuit.
#12 WAYNE O (9-2) – No dice in two outings at Saratoga, but then exploded with a major improvement at Keeneland last time out, fighting to a narrow win in a tough maiden race. That victory looks even better now that both the second- and third-place finishers out of that maiden win have both come back to win their maidens since then. Steps up in class against winners for the first time, but the real test today will be the added distance with the stretch from six furlongs to one mile. Showed speed but tired to fifth when last seen at seven furlongs, finishing behind Necker Island in that race at Saratoga, and now will have a tough assignment trying to hold on here going an even longer distance.
#13 AE DEVIL’S DRAMA (20-1) – Both outings so far were against maiden claimers, including the maiden win last time out here at Churchill Downs. Come-from-behind victory on this track and at this distance was certainly looking good, no doubt, but this will obviously be a tougher spot and he needs to draw in off the also eligibles.
#14 AE CARPE VICTORIAM (15-1) – Tom Amoss runner won two in a row at Indiana Grand, but the winning streak came to an end last time out when this horse switched to Churchill Downs, where he finished ninth by 13 lengths in the Street Sense Stakes. Blinkers on. Second on the also eligible list. Needs to run faster, but is the lone two-time winner entered in this race.
#15 AE BAHAMA CHANNEL (30-1) – Comes out of the maiden win, but will have trouble repeating in this much tougher spot after needing a drop in against maiden claimers to break the maiden in what was his eighth career outing. Overcame a bad start to win, so this horse does seem to have some ability, especially on the dirt, but he’s too deep on the also eligibles to be likely to get a shot today.
Race 11
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), two-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles
#1 ENFORCEABLE (8-1) – Needed four races to notch the maiden win, but finally did so in what was his first ever dirt route attempt, so this main track 1 1/16-mile assignment seems to fall squarely in this horse’s wheelhouse. Exits a respectable third-place finish in the Keeneland Breeders’ Futurity last time behind runaway winner Maxfield, and while this is a tough spot, there may or may not even be a rival entered in this field that is as good as that horse. This horse’s best Bris speed figure of 92 stacks up well vs. these and the Prime Power number of 130.6 rates him fourth in this field. Wants to come from off the pace and so will be looking for a hot pace to help him out, but unfortunately there aren’t a lot of speed horses entered in this spot and the pace may be slow to develop.
#2 FIGHTING SEABEE (8-1) – First three lifetime starts were on the grass for trainer Ken McPeek, but this horse made a very solid switch to the main track last time with a runner-up finish in the one-mile Street Sense Stakes, beaten only a length by South Bend, who is one of this race’s horse to beat. While South Bend is 9-5 on the morning line, this horse is offering value in your bets and in your exotics at 8-1. Trainer Ken McPeek doesn’t win with a lot of first starters, but he won with this horse at first asking and then stepped up and won a Grade 3 race in this horse’s second start in the With Anticipation at Saratoga. While both of those aforementioned wins were on the turf and this horse is on the turf, this horse has already shown he’s more than competent on this surface and owns a dirt speed rating faster than anything he did on the lawn. Ignore at your own risk.
#3 TIZ THE LAW (7-5) – Perfect 2-for-2 start to his career already includes a Grade 1 victory in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park for trainer Barclay Tagg for Sackatoga Stable, the same connections that brought you Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide. Can lightning strike twice? Well, it’s hard to not like what we’ve seen so far, that’s for sure. Bris speed ratings looks strong, and the Prime Power rating of 136.9 is huge and is tops in this field. Runners by this horse’s sire, Constitution, have proven so be extraordinarily precocious, and the stakes-winning dam keeps producing two-year-old winners. Would have been among the favorites in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but bypassed that race and lands in this spot instead. Overcame a bad start and a tough trip en route to the four-length easy win in the Champagne. Looms the worthy 7-5 morning line favorite and the clear horse to beat.
#4 SOUTH BEND (9-5) – The other undefeated morning-line favorite in this field is this horse, South Bend, who is off to a perfect 3-for-3 start to his career for trainer Stan Hough with victories that include the Street Sense Stakes last time out. Has been brought along beautifully so far, going from six furlongs to seven furlongs to one mile and handling each step forward along the way with increasingly good efforts. The one-mile stakes win last time out was particularly impressive, staying much closer to the pace than in the prior sprint outings, overcoming some traffic, and drawing off to win in a field that included some of today’s same rivals. The only potential problem today looks like the pace. Last time this horse benefitted from a fast and contentious pace in order to make his late winning run. In this race, however, the pace projects to be much softer and it may compromise the chances of this horse and any horse that needs to make an off-the-pace move. Certainly would be no surprise to see this horse push his career record to 4-for-4 here, but he’s going to have to earn it.
#5 SILVER PROSPECTOR (8-1) – Began his career with three turf losses and then graduated at first asking when switched to the main track two races ago in a 6 ½ furlong race at Keeneland. Went straight from that race up into a stakes assignment last time out in the Street Sense, where he ran a very solid effort for third but ultimately came up short against today’s rivals, Fighting Seabee and South Bend. What’s different today? Well, first and foremost it’s the pace, and therein lies this horse’s big chance to turn the tables and win today’s race. Last time this horse battled for the lead in fast fractions and held on best of the speeds for third, beaten just a length and a half. This time out, the early challenger from last time is not entered in this race, nor is any other legitimate front-running speed horse. Goes out for this meet’s leading trainer Steve Asmussen with his main man jockey Ricardo Santana aboard, and the combo has been winning everything in sight. Has a chance to get out in front, slow things down on the lead, and go all the way wire-to-wire at a nice price.
#6 FINNICK THE FIERCE (30-1) – Won at first asking at Indiana Grand at five furlongs, and then joined the main circuit last time out in a Churchill allowance, but was only able to muster a fourth-place finish. Stretches out for the first time, but may or may not be bred to further excel at this longer distance. May have needed that last race off a layoff and could move forward in this second race off the layoff, but lags behind this field in terms of the speed figures and has obviously never yet landed in a spot nearly this difficult.
#7 NEW EAGLE (20-1) – Making positive strides in each start so far in terms of the Bris speed ratings, which have increased from 62 to 73 to 80. Nevertheless, even that 80 leaves him far behind the top horses in today’s field. Three races so far have been a dirt sprint at Ellis Park followed by a pair of turf routes at Indiana Grand. Beat maidens last time out, but seems to be in way too deep in these waters as he switches back to the main track for trainer Mike Maker. Has his best chance to make a dent in this race solely from a pace perspective, as many of the closers in this race may be hinging their hopes on whether or not this horse can or will run with Silver Prospector early.
#8 TWO LAST WORDS (20-1) – Stakes winner accomplished that feat in an Indiana Grand state-bred race at six furlongs, and while that win certainly is nice to see, it has limited relevance in terms of today’s Graded stakes race at Churchill going two turns at 1 1/16 miles. Attempted a stretchout last time in another Indiana state-bred stakes race, but did not improve with the added distance, and actually regressed with a non-threatening third-place finish with a lower Bris speed figure. Prefer others.
#9 SHOTSKI (12-1) – Lost to South Bend, Fighting Seabee, and Silver Prospector last time out in the Street Sense Stakes, and probably had the best trip of all when sitting in the garden spot off a speed duel but then unable to take advantage with a trip note that reads “hung.” The maiden win came in a solid effort at six furlongs at Laurel, but this horse is still going to need to show a lot more, and didn’t get any bargains in the post-position draw from out in post 9.
Race 12
#1 FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT (10-1) – Disappointed when very well bet in the career debut at 3-1 odds back at Ellis Park for trainer Dale Romans when unable to get into the race ever at 5 1/2 furlongs. Realistically, however, it seems like way too early to give up to on this horse despite Romans’ sub-par season this meet at Churchill Downs (3-for-31, 10%). This is an $850k yearling purchase by Uncle Mo who is bred to go a route of ground, so expect improvement with the stretch to this longer one-mile distance. Romans wins 18% with second-time starters, and !8% with runners stretching to a route for the first time.
#2 MONARCHOS MUSIC (20-1) – First starter for trainer Larry Jones, who was winless with his first 10 starters at the Churchill meet. Sire Monarchos gets 13% winning first-time starters, and Jones does good work with first starters with a 17% win percentage. Dam has produced four winners from five prior foals to race, including one runner who won at age 2. Slow workouts temper any enthusiasm, however. Prefer to wait and see.
#3 ASTROLOGER (15-1) – Makes career debut for trainer Wayne Catalano, who wins with 14% of his first starters overall. It’s been a tough season for Catalano, who is just 1-for-17 at Churchill Downs for this meet, but it is a very encouraging sign that jockey Florent Geroux is aboard for the mount. Homebred by Street Sense is bred to go a route of ground, and both of this dam’s two prior foals to race were winners, but neither won at age 2. Workouts don’t stand out. Mixed signals.
#4 KENTUCKY SUMMER (10-1) – First start was way back in August at Ellis Park in a race at this distance, but unfortunately this horse never threatened at any point in that race, and today’s assignment sure won’t be any easier. Strong connections noted with Steve Asmussen training with 18 wins at the meet, and 21% winning rider Tyler Gaffalione aboard. Sold for $500k as a yearling and is bred to handle this one-mile distance, at least. Too early to give up, but not looking like one of the principal contenders.
#5 DARK OAK (8-1) – Hit the board in all three dirt races to date in races ranging from 5 ½ furlongs to seven furlongs, but then the two races since then, both in turf routes, did not look as good. Tries a dirt mile for the first time, which could be a good thing because this horse was knocking on the door of the maiden win when last seen on the dirt. Those efforts, however, were against sifter competition at Indiana and Ellis Park, and the speed figures seemingly need to improve for this horse in order to make a dent vs. these.
#6 ICECAP (6-1) – One of a couple of Steve Asmussen trainees in this race, this is the one that will be ridden by Asmussen’s main man Ricardo Santana. As mentioned, Asmussen owns 18 wins this season at Churchill, so it’s tough to ever count his runners out. This horse has had his chances, however, and he has yet to come close to posting a victory of even hitting the board, with fifth-, seventh-, and fifth-place finishes showing in the past performances that already include a loss at this distance. Speed ratings don’t look bad comparatively against this field and the Prime Power rating of 117.8 is third best here, but a couple of these others have looked much better.
#7 LASTCHANCEATGLORY (12-1) – Seems to have improved in the last couple races on the grass, so it will be interesting to see if this horse can continue to improve with this switch back to a dirt track, or if this horse really is much better on the lawn. Has not been better that sixth in any of the races so far, so it’s difficult to get too excited. The outing at Keeneland on the turf two races ago was much better than the other two outings, losing by less than two lengths. Trainer Paul McGee has won 13% going turf to dirt. Dam has produced a couple of winners, including a stakes winner, but no winning two-year-olds so far. Waiting until later.
#8 BROTHER MARTIN (15-1) – Solid career debut third-place finish is something to build on, running on and finishing well at seven furlongs and just missing second. That third-place finish looks even better now that the winner of that debut race came back to win again next time out. Lost a tight place photo to Recklessness, who is back in today’s field, and that rival had a much worse trip while this horse benefitted from mainly clear sailing. There’s reason to believe this horse will also improve today. Trainer Dallas Stewart rarely wins with first starters, but he cranks his runners up tighter in their second outings to win with 10% of his second-time starters, and 15% of the time going sprint to route. Speed figure last time left something to be desired, but this horse fits against this field based on that solid debut and could improve. If you like Recklessness, you at least gotta take a long look at this horse too.
#9 SOUNION (2-1) – Narrowly missed the maiden win last time out in his second lifetime start, leading much of the way, fending off pressure, and losing by a tough-luck neck in a 1 1/16-mile dirt race here at Churchill. Earned a strong 90 speed rating in defeat, and the Prime Power rating of 123.8 I the tops in this race. May have needed that last race, which came off of a three-month layoff, but now goes second off the layoff and should be fit and ready. Puts blinkers on, and trainer Brian Lynch wins 12% with the added shades. Lynch has had a strong meet at Churchill this season, winning with 4 of 15 starters for 27%. Great chance to add to those numbers today with a win in this race.
#10 CIVIL SERVANT (5-1) – Career debut on Oct. 13 at Keeneland resulted in a competitive 80 Bris speed rating despite the fact that the race does not otherwise look good on paper, finishing sixth when never threatening at 53-1 odds. Perhaps needs more distance to shine for trainer Ian Wilkes (19% winner at the meet), so this stretch from 6 ½ furlongs to one mile could do the trick. Wilkes does not show bug numbers in relevant categories, with 11% wins with second-time starters and 12% wins with first-time routers. The morning line odds of 5-1 indicate this horse is one of the top contenders, but others who have already raced have looked better.
#11 RECKLESSNESS (12-1) – Came in to Churchill Downs with underrated form from Arlington for trainer Ingrid Mason last time out, and took to the dirt nicely with a good effort for second that day behind a sharp-looking Steve Asmussen first-out winner who has already repeated since exiting that race. This horse actually had the toughest trip in that spot, showing some pace-pressing early ability until getting shuffled back in trouble on the backstretch before coming back for second. This horse’s speed figure leaves something to be desired, but that last race looks like it was better quality than it is being given credit for. Looms the main danger to knock-off favored Sounion.
#12 DRAW THE LINE (12-1) – First-time starter for trainer Cherie Devaux, who does good work with first starters, winning at 23% recently. Devaux also already owns two wins at the current Churchill meet from only seven starters, but this barn rarely sends out maiden route winners, and wins many more sprints than routes, overall. This gelding sold for $200k as a yearling. Sire Broken Vow gets 9% winning first-time starters, and the dam has produced one winner from one prior starter, and that horse won at age 2. Some things to get excited about.
#13 AE DECISION MAKER (15-1) – Broke slowly last time in career debut and then never got into the race, finishing fifth in a race where a couple of these same rivals did a lot better than him. Trainer Bill Bradley wins only 8% with horses making their second career starts.
#14 AE SPEIGHTTOWN AGAIN (15-1) – Finished sixth in career debut and was beaten by several of these same horses in that race. Runners from this Ken McPeek stable often improve fast following their first career outings, with 19% winning second-time starters as opposed to 6% winning firsters. Unfortunately, McPeek has had a tough Churchill fall meet with just 3 wins from 50 starters, and this horse will need to show much more than what we’ve seen so far.
#15 AE SPEAKING THE TRUTH (30-1) – First start was way back in June at Thistledown, and that day was a disaster 43 length loss. Perhaps something went wrong that day, and they’ve gone back to the drawing board with this runner in the months since then, but prefer to watch this horse get back in action before placing a bet on him.
#16 AE NO SHIRT NO SHOES (12-1) – Bad start at six furlongs really hurt this horse’s chances in the first lifetime start last time, trailing by 10 lengths early before getting rolling late, passing several horses, and losing by only about four lengths at the finish. That race was actually good enough to get this horse this field’s second-best Prime Power rating of 120.5, and trainer Doug Anderson wins 15% with his second-time starters. Just needs a better start, and the sky’s the limit. Too bad we might not see what this horse is made of today, because he’s buried so deep on the also eligible list.
