Analysis of Friday’s second race at Churchill Downs:
Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 1:34 p.m. ET)
#1 Little Alex — Wasn’t disgraced in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden sprint over the Churchill Downs main track on May 22, running an even race to finish third by 4 1/2 lengths at odds of 85-1. Stretching out another furlong should only help this $1,200 yearling purchase, considering his sire (the German-bred Musketier) and damsire (Horse of the Year Skip Away) were ultra-durable millionaires who excelled running long. But 5 1/2 furlongs is still pretty short, and Musketier was at his best on grass, so Little Alex may have to wait for more suitable conditions.
#2 Tiz a Bit Lucky — While this daughter of Tonalist never challenged the winner in her debut sprinting 5 furlongs at Churchill, she did show some late interest rallying from 10TH to third in the final quarter-mile. She’s wheeling back on short rest and facing male rivals, but Tonalist is siring long-winded runners with an average winning distance of 7.7 furlongs, so stretching out another sixteenth of a mile should benefit this $3,500 yearling.
#3 Our Commish —Trainer Billy Hardin is 0-for-39 with first-time starters, but Our Commish has posted some solid workouts at The Thoroughbred Center, including a speedy half-mile in :47 3/5 last Saturday. Sire Commissioner was a graded stakes winner who finished second in the 2014 Belmont Stakes (G1) and damsire Northern Afleet is responsible for 2005 Preakness/Belmont champion Afleet Alex, so there’s plenty of class in Our Commish’s pedigree. Commissioner sires a respectable 13% winners from first-time starters, so Our Commish is a candidate to outrun expectations on debut.
#4 Looting — This young May foal sold for $200,000 as a yearling and brings five solid workouts to the equation for trainer Dane Kobiskie, who strikes at a 12% rate with first-time starters. The progeny of sire Violence tend to be even hotter on debut, winning at a 21% clip, and Looting’s dam previously foaled the graded stakes-winning sprinter Imprimis. With Churchill’s perennial leading jockey Corey Lanerie in the saddle, Looting figures to fire a sharp effort in his initial test.
#5 Really Slow — One of two runners trained by Paul McEntee, Really Slow hasn’t shown much in his first two starts at Churchill Downs, finishing off the board on both occasions while beaten a minimum of 15 lengths. He did improve mildly in his second start, running evenly to miss a spot on the board by just 3 1/2 lengths, but the son of Congrats will need another step forward to challenge on Friday.
#6 Seattle See Ya — Sire Super Saver won the 2010 Kentucky Derby, but if Seattle See Ya is going to flash a similar affinity for Churchill Downs, it’s likely to be sometime in the future. Super Saver sires just 10% debut winners and trainer Ryan Kenney is 4-for-51 (8%) lifetime, and when coupling those stats with Seattle See Ya’s modest work tab, it appears as though this $17,000 yearling purchase is using Friday’s test as a starting point more than an end goal.
#7 Baytown Bear — A troubled start prevented Baytown Bear from challenging in his debut sprinting 4 1/2 furlongs over the Churchill main track, but the son of Upstart showed considerably more promise when trying turf last Friday, pushing a quick pace before weakening to finish seventh. Trainer Paul McEntee wins at a 27% rate with horses switching from turf to dirt, and Upstart cracked the trifecta in half a dozen Grade 1 races on the main track, so Baytown Bear — with his tactical speed — might be the most dangerous of the experienced runners in Friday’s maiden heat.
#8 Candy Mover — Broke slowly in his debut going 4 1/2 furlongs and ran evenly to finish a distant sixth, 6 1/2 lengths behind Little Alex, but 3 1/4 lengths clear of the troubled Baytown Bear. Candy Mover was adorned with plenty of equipment (blinkers and front wraps) for his first run and will retain the headgear while stretching out another furlong in distance. Sire Candy Ride is one of North America’s leading stallions and dam Star Silver previously foaled the stakes-winning juvenile sprinter Red Lodge, so there’s plenty of quality in Candy Mover’s breeding. The bullet workouts Candy Mover posted prior to his debut suggest that with a more alert start, he can take a step forward second-time out.
#9 Hulen — No trainer has saddled more juvenile debut winners at Churchill in recent years than Steve Asmussen, who will try to increase his win total Friday with Hulen. A son of three-time Churchill Downs graded stakes winner Tapiture, who sires 18% debut winners, Hulen has shown ample speed during morning training at Keeneland, cranking out fast half-miles in :46 2/5 and :47 1/5 from the starting gate. As a January foal, Hulen may have a maturity advantage over his young rivals, stamping the $50,000 yearling as the horse to beat.
