Emily Gullikson takes a look at the Oaklawn Park March 28 card and provides her OptixEQ analysis.
RACE 3
The “Sun” Contention and 30 SpeedRate suggests an honest early pace with inside runners, #1 THELMA AND ANNIE, #2 LUCKY EVERY DAY, and #3 TAPALONG all sharing Quad I and positioned above the Par Line. This scenario could set up for a tracking runner and #6 COLLUDE could find herself in the right place at the right time tracking as a Square from Quad II. Her form cycle is positive, making the third start of this cycle and finding subtle class relief in the process. She ran a B- OptixGRADE against a higher $30k N2L condition back on Jan. 29 and has upside after hopping at the start (SLOG) last month.
Also willing to upgrade #7 SHE’S MY RIDE, still lightly raced and getting in light once again as a three-year-old filly taking on older. She will also be on third start of the form cycle and a positive pattern returning to the sprint distance (ONE_TURN) following the route event just 17 days ago.
RACE 4
#4 ACE GILFORD keeps up with the “third start of the form cycle” theme showing up in this maiden event with a positive pattern. He returned from a 337-day layoff back on Feb. 26 and not only had the challenge of the layoff but also poor (sloppy) track conditions on the day. He was part of the early pace, a very fast (VF O4S RaceShape) that afternoon, and has a subtle pace upgrade from that event. He returned to make his second start of the meet as part of another very fast (VF O4S RaceShape) for the route and showed some distance limitations in the process. That comes into play here with connections cutting back to a sprint distance and finding him class relief at the same time, both favorable changes today. Between his sneaky form and off-the-board finishes he could get overlooked here, offering value potentially sitting on a peak effort.
Looking at OptixPLOT, Ace Gilford should find main pace challenger in #9 STONE SECRET, one that is tough to knock as a Quad I Square. While capable he is more “obvious” and projects to be a much shorter price as a result. Stone Secret was sitting on a similar “peak” race making his “third start of the form cycle” in that most recent March 11 maiden race. He found similar class relief from his two previous starts running at the maiden $10k level for the first time. He improved and was more competitive finishing second with the 73 OptixFIG, a Fig in RANGE today. That said, visually left something to be desired as he was all out to hold place and the B- OptixGRADE posted is a touch short of a winning effort for the level.
RACE 9
#4 BANK comes into this race off the “better than looked” fourth-place finish in his allowance return last month. The trip was subtle though enough to impact his race and finishing position. Both Bank and Santana should be able to learn something and move forward from the trip coming back after the 299-day layoff for this second start here at Oaklawn. That allowance race last out, even without the trip, provides Bank an edge this afternoon in both Class and Speed over #1 FASTLY and #2 KADRI with those two out of that same Feb. 25 allowance and holding the DROP Keywords in Past 3 Runlines.
The blinkers will be added on Bank this afternoon and capable given his Class and Speed show more tactical speed than his Quad II position on the Plot, especially with today’s “red” PlotFit. If he does indeed show more tactical speed today, Bank could keep the pressure on #3 PIRATE RICK the lone runners presenting as a Circle in Quad I. The lone sophomore, #6 I’M A SPECIAL STAR from Quad III, is getting a stiff class test here coming off a front running maiden claiming win on March 11. His best chance will have Geroux to try for the lead though has not run races on this level (OptixFIG below RANGE) or pace figures fast enough according to the Plot to keep pace with Pirate Rick to the first call.
#5 SILVER RATIO showed ability in his first three starts though has some hurdles here returning off the 366-day layoff running for trainer Ron Moquett. Given he is lightly raced, coming back from that long layoff, and returning here as a four-year-old, his position on the Plot should be taken with a grain of salt. However, should he run true to the Quad IV, he could be up against it with today’s Snowflake Contention rating. His form will also have to transfer not only to his new barn but also from Gulfstream Park, form that does not always translate perfectly outside of Florida.
Learn more about optixeq.com Register free at https://optixeq.com/sign-in/
