Emily Gullikson analyzes the Oaklawn Park April 17 card and provides her OptixEQ analysis.
RACE 9 – OAKLAWN H. (G2)
This is a quality field top to bottom and a competitive race with some legit older horses in the handicap division. This can be seen in the Past 3 Runlines as each horse in the field shows current form with races in RANGE to win this afternoon. With speed a neutral factor, class, pace, and form will be the handicapping factors used to establish contenders.
#4 WARRIOR’S CHARGE could hold a pace advantage this afternoon based on his Plot position clear in Quad I. He is the lone EP RunStyle and expects to take up that frontrunning trip as he makes his second start off the layoff. This second start of the form cycle should assist in terms of fitness as he will be asked to carry his speed this nine-furlong distance of ground. Classwise his OptixGRADES at the graded stakes level have been hovering around the B- OptixGRADE range, though capable to run a B GRADE at the graded stakes level when given the right scenario on the front end, a scenario he could find here.
#1 SILVER STATE projects to track Warrior’s Charge from the rail and his Standard Quad III position. Silver State has been dominant this season, recording back-to-back B+ OptixGRADES in his two starts, and is ready for his graded stakes test. That class test will also come with a distance test as he stretches out to this nine-furlong trip. He showed some limitations at the longer distance races last season and still has that to prove. He is in top form coming into this race, in what looks to be a test from the connections as well, to see where he belongs in terms of class and if he is a “classic” type distance horse. Stablemate #8 SILVER PROSPECTOR has recorded a win at today’s nine-furlong distance, though will require another move forward based on his graded stakes efforts this season. While the trip and race shape have played against him to some extent, such as racing against the dynamics (X_FLOW) in the Louisiana (G3), his current form is slightly below RANGE, and given the PLOT position as a Quad III Circle (no clear pace advantage) would need a career top effort to win today.
#2 EXPRESS TRAIN is also capable to track Warrior’s Charge in Quad I. Express Train belongs in this event and will have a chance getting outside of California to show where he belongs in this handicap division. In terms of the distance, he has shown some distance limitations of his own with stamina playing a subtle role in his place finish last month in the Santa Anita H. (G1) going 10 furlongs. Class and the “perfect” trip assisted him in the San Pasqual (G2) earlier this season in a compact five-horse field, and as he ships to Oaklawn Park, will have the distance as well as a solid group of rivals to compete against today.
Stablemate to Warrior’s Charge, #6 OWENDALE will make his third start of the form cycle and on a positive progression with improving OptixFIG/GRADE coming into this race. In his first start of the form cycle returning from a 92-day layoff into the Razorback S. (G3), Owendale looked to need the race and was slightly compromised with the race shape itself not quite setting up for his RunStyle. Tactically under Geroux, Owendale was able to show a bit more speed in the New Orleans Classic (G2) last month. As part of the early pace, he is worth upgrading as he pushed the pace and set up the race shape for the eventual winner, Chess Chief. Owendale earned the same B OptixGRADE as Chess Chief, and given the race shape, Owendale stayed on as the race slowed late to remain competitive to the wire in a three-horse blanket finish. As he is moving forward with each start of this current cycle, he projects to hold his form today and is capable to get the trip (pace) from his Quad II position on the Plot.
#3 FEARLESS will return to Oaklawn Park looking for some redemption here after finishing second in an optional claiming allowance race last season. That May 2 race started off the series of races to close out 2020 where Fearless lacked early speed, changing his running style from the first few starts where he was able to put himself into the race early on. To further push that point, Fearless was a Quad I Square in that May 2 event and has since changed Plot position. Given his first two races at Gulfstream Park, it made sense for Pletcher to cycle back to Gulfstream Park this year. He was rewarded by that decision as well as the training job in winning the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) coming back after a 245-day layoff. It is encouraging that connections would look to this spot, a $1 million race, following the return. Bringing up the Plot position historically is important in this case and with Fearless as a Square in Quad IV. He does not necessarily have to take up the role as a deep closer in terms of finding a trip today. Irad Ortiz was back aboard for that first graded stakes win and will follow him here to Oaklawn Park. Fearless has races that make him a legit contender, and one that could get overlooked in here.
Both #5 GUEST SUITE and #7 RATED R SUPERSTAR are solid racehorses who have earned the respect of this handicapper. That said, class at this graded stakes level presents a major hurdle for this professional pair. Without a real advantage in terms of pace as Quad IV Circles, they come up a bit short in terms of taking a contender role with a minor share more likely.
RACE 11 APPLE BLOSSOM H. (G1)
#2 SWISS SKYDIVER is giving off strong “Ms. Pac-Man” vibes on OptixPLOT with a strong Square above the Par Line looking to stalk and pounce on her rivals. Her record speaks for itself as a multiple Grade 1-winning champion, including the Preakness (G1) and a dominant B+ OptixGRADE to make her seasonal debut last month in the Beholder Mile (G1) at Santa Anita. She fits as a legit contender all around with Class (GRADES), Speed (OptixFIG in RANGE), form (lacking Red Keywords) and Pace on OptixPLOT.
Swiss Skydiver has that strong Plot as a legit advantage in what many will see as at least “on paper” a match-up with #6 MONOMOY GIRL. Monomoy Girl is a champion racemare, though will be tested here by the presence of Swiss Skydiver as well as the race shape and her current form making her second start of the season. Returning in the Bayakoa (G3), Monomoy Girl was the class of the field and had the advantage in every direction that afternoon. She was able to find a favorable outside tracking trip, a trip with the track profile on the day. Drawn to the outside, Geroux projects to put Monomoy Girl into the race early as outlined on the Plot, pressing #3 LETRUSKA and looking to get a “first run” on Swiss Skydiver. Given that plays out on race day, Swiss Skydiver (as shown on the Plot) does not have to be far off that pair, and with the size of that Large Square, has the substantial late pace as well as second call turn-time based on her Plot position above the Par Line to not allow Monomoy Girl a pace advantage.
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