Emily Gullikson analyzes the Oaklawn Park April 2 card and provides her OptixEQ analysis.
RACE 4
The competitive nature and complicated handicapping puzzle for this claiming event could see the public default to “connections” and create some value opportunities. Favoritism here should be back-and-forth with #3 SHARECROPPER and #8 NOBLE EGYPTIAN both sharing a running style represented in Quad I Standard. To find value in the race the handicapping process begins with assessing this pair as the favorite.
Sharecropper will look for his third win of the meet and in addition to finding Contention (Sun) he will have to improve on a declining form cycle/OptixFIG keying off the Regress from January 22nd. That will be in play here as he returns in two weeks off the March 19th win with a favorable pace (flow) scenario. While able to pick up the win, he did take a step back in terms of OptixFIG as shown in the Past 3 Runlines and giving the timing and recent efforts is it less likely he will present a move forward today.
Noble Egyptian will have to contest not only with the pace (Quad I Circle) but also adapt to the main track, a surface he has limited starts over so far in his career. In terms of current form, again referencing the Past 3 Runlines, there is not much to get encouraged about from the Notes/Grades and OptixFIG sit below RANGE. Assessing him as a favorite here, as a horse does not figure a top contender and with the connections is likely to be an underlay.
The lower SpeedRate could in this case upgrade a trip for #6 CANDY CARLOS sitting as a Square in Quad I/III and capable to get the trip and first run. He holds an improving pattern making his third start of the form cycle which started here at Oaklawn Park back on January 29th with the C+ OptixGRADE and 75 OptixFIG both progressing to a B- OptixGRADE and 87 OptixFIG in the second of the cycle, the March 11th race.
#1 EGO is one that has been followed since opening week (January 23rd) and requiring class relief (DROP) will find that this afternoon and for the first time this meet. The class drop should allow for him to track closer to the pace, a position shown on Standard tracking behind the Quad I/III runners, especially with the rail draw. As a Square, he has enough finish when needed and sitting above the x-axis in this lower SpeedRate scenario is another positive. Ego will also pick up a rider change this afternoon with Vasquez taking over. This change signals some positive intent with the recent trips as well as this jockey/trainer combination already teaming up for a win this meet.
#7 EPIC could also be given a subtle upgrade based on his Square and Plot position with this scenario as well as off some “hidden” form this meet. He will have to improve off that current form, form that looks a lot like Noble Egyptian in the Past 3 Runlines, and perhaps value from that aspect alone. There are some positive in his form cycle as well making his second start off the claim and stretching back out in distance from the March 4th event, a key race. Epic was not asked to run (NO_PUSH) and kept WIDE in the process. As he stretches back to a route here the blinkers will be added and would expect Epic show more tactical speed this afternoon.
#2 OFF THE MEDS is capable rebound this afternoon from the WIDE trip against the course profile on March 13th. That said value will have to be considered based on the morning line and his position on the Plot as well as form that does not present much of an edge over the other runners in this field. His position on the Plot today is similar to #4 DRIVEN TO COMPETE and #5 CALCULATED RISKER, both stepping up in class today.
RACE 6
This is a solid statebred Special Weight event with many in this field exiting the March 21st event. Returning from that common race, the conversation starts with #9 DOLLY DIMPLE earning the B OptixGRADE (winning effort for the level) and looks solid on the Plot as well as a Square in Quad I. She is capable to show that tactical speed, run true to the Plot, here given the start (TROUBLE_S forced into the gap from the rail) in that debut just 12-days ago. The timing could be the one knock here coming back without much rest after what could be a potentially taxing effort first out.
After finishing behind the field, #3 MOONSHINE PRINCESS could get overlooked here off that TRAFFIC trip and making her third start of the form cycle. She ran a B OptixGRADE in her debut back against open company at Remington Park in December. She projected to improve off her March 6th effort making a WIDE MOVE and perhaps shows that move forward today at a price. #11 UNBRIDLED TWISTER is a little more “obvious” finishing third after her TRAFFIC trip. While tough to knock the effort and seems capable to IMPROVE off that trip, the same timing concerns to Dolly Dimple are in play with the quick return, the 12-day turnaround, to make her second start.
#7 MY GRACE took a different path here this meet, though brings a similar “third-off” form cycle pattern. She ran the B OptixGRADE in her debut against open company at Arlington Park last August. She was given some time before returning on February 6th for her seasonal debut and with each start a progressive OptixGRADE pattern. While she is moving forward, and along with #5 SPURWICK LANE holds OptixFIG on the higher end of RANGE, the one constant for My Grace are her gate issues (SLOG, RUSH and TROUBLE_S) which are a bit of a liability.
#10 MY DAMS ATITUDE is another with her share of gate issues (SLOG) though should not be overlooked here. She presents an improving OptixFIG pattern since her debut and will have a barn change here as well. That change is worth noting as My Dams Atitude was entered back on March 13th for previous trainer, Puhl, and scratched out of that event will make her first start for Mason this afternoon.
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