Emily Gullikson analyzes the Oaklawn Park April 24 card and provides her OptixEQ analysis.
RACE 3
#1 FANCY BLAZE will make her fourth start of the meet and with sneaky form returning to this maiden claiming level. She debuted back on Feb. 5 and needed some experience between the slow start (SLOG) and racing erratically (RANK) from start to finish. She improved quite a bit in her second start, the March 18 race, to record a B OptixGRADE. As shown by the trip in the Past 3 Runlines, the BTL run saw her make multiple moves (TWO_MOVES) with TROUBLE both at the break and in running, while still making up ground to finish in a photo for place behind the “BOS” pacesetting winner and those two on the GALLOP+ out side-by-side. Given that effort connections figured to try the Special Weight level on April 2, and while not quite to the level as a contender (C+ OptixGRADE), was still able to continue a speed figure (OptixFIG) progression. The drop back to this maiden claiming level is logical here especially with the meet in the final weeks placing here where she can win. She has had those issues out of the gate and lacking early speed, again the class drop should assist on that front as well as the race shape shown below on OptixPLOT with Fancy Blaze tracking as a Quad II Square behind a Contentious “Fire” Quad I. Keying off the B OptixGRADE, a winning grade for the level, along with Fancy Blaze, #9 ARKANSAS BLING also recording a B OptixGRADE from her effort back on Jan. 22 and figures a contender here as a Quad I Square. She will take this logical drop with the timing in play for this Arkansas-bred from the connections after the minor finishes in that Special Weight class to assist in clearing this maiden condition.
Four-year-old fillies #3 SPURWICK LANE and #7 DAIGLE will also be using the timing and drop in class today coming out of the Special Weight events this season. They are capable here and in terms of OptixFIG have run some of the higher numbers recorded in this field. At the same time, they have been inconsistent in doing so, and while capable based on their respective Quad I position, will have to come running with one of those top efforts to win today and the board has to be factored in this case.
RACE 5
Based on the pair of wins and recent speed figures, #5 SEVIER projects to receive a lot of wagering support and vulnerable at a short price. He returned from the 201-day layoff on March 4 to win and record a solid 98 OptixFIG that day. He did so with a “LONE” lead and taxing effort with the HARD Keyword. He was able to win right back on March 27 due to the right setup allowed another LONE lead and to get away with a Very Slow (VS O4S) opening half-mile. As shown in the Past 3 Runlines, there was a slight regression in terms of OptixFIG and another “step back” looks in line with this current form cycle. In addition, he does not look to find a LONE trip today given the Contention in Quad I.
#2 GREELEY AND BEN could capitalize also in Quad I as a Square. He has upside returning to the sprint distance today and off the March 28 race when he was not asked (NO PUSH) to run. He will still have to overcome the trip here with that “Fire” Contention and with this inside post is likely to get hooked up in the early pace a scenario that will require Greeley and Ben to put forth his top effort to win.
The “Fire” Contention could play out favorably for #6 STROLLING as he will return with a bit of a break first off the claim and protected here to run at this starter allowance by trainer Peter Miller. The timing is key looking at his form cycle starting back on Jan. 22 with the win and top 93 OptixFIG of the series. Those numbers declined in the following two starts and especially on March 21 when he was rushed back to the races in just 14 days and not fully recovered as signaled by the Keywords in the OptixNOTES for that race. Strolling fits at this level with OptixFIG in RANGE as well as class for this starter allowance level based today’s OptixFIGRANGE. Value should be there based on his recent races and the two running lines and sixth-place finishes sitting on top of the past performances.
RACE 10 – BACHELOR STAKES:
Asmussen has a strong hand in this race sending out a pair with #4 JAXON TRAVELER and #6 CAZADERO, both coming out of the Gazebo S. last month. Looking at OptixPLOT, Jaxon Traveler could have the pace advantage given some separation at the first call, the Plot position reading from left-to-right. That advantage should be taken today after the decision to not do so (TACTIC-) in the Gazebo when rider Arrieta, decided to take back off of the pace and not allowing him to use his early pace as an advantage. That same mistake is not likely to happen twice as not only did he give up the early advantage but also allowed for #1 SIR WELLINGTON to make the first run on the pacesetter with Jaxon Traveler playing chase and ultimately those two right together at the wire.
Stablemate Cazadero, fourth that afternoon, is capable of improving making his second start back off the layoff after falling short as the favorite. Cazadero was forced to give up ground at the start (TROUBLE_S) taking contact and getting shuffled back at the break. From there he chased WIDE and moving up with the race FLOW late. That trip and timing as he makes his second start of his three-year-old season has to be taken into account with his position on OptixPLOT with the recent trip and the prior form from the juvenile season. Cazadero was able to show tactical speed in his first two starts and even in the Gazebo was positioned as a Quad I/III Square showing that prior positional speed. He is capable of getting back to that preferred tracking trip with a clean break today and still show the same finishing ability as that Square on the Plot suggests.
Trip for Cazadero could be similar to the Quad I/II position for #2 BOB’S EDGE, an improving type coming into this race for trainer Larry Jones making his stakes debut. His position on the Plot is similar and preferred (Square to Circle) over Gazebo winner, Sir Wellington off that “setup” type win. #3 GAGETOWN is tough to knock as he has been consistent in each start and yet to finish off the board. That said, his consistency has also left little improvement along the way in terms of speed figures, however, should note his sprint race OptixFIG slightly higher than the two route races. #5 SEA TO SUCCESS sits below on Class and Speed coming into this race for Sadler and will be tested here. Even though he won from off-the-pace on March 31, he projected to be forwardly placed that afternoon and found a bit of a setup due to the race dynamics with the change in running style. The stumble at the start (TROUBLE_S) found himself with a stalking trip and benefit from the BUNCHED field and the race FLOW to overcome the start and trip to win.
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