RACE 1:
Class plays a role in this race with many taking the necessary class drop from the Special Weight condition, while others must improve off their maiden claiming form against today’s class droppers. #2 PENETRATOR is one of those making the key class DROP? from the Special Weight races last summer at Del Mar. His form is adjusted and upgraded with the class change shown on the Plot as a Quad II Square. This is an encouraging move coming back off the layoff for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer and he has been placed accordingly for his sophomore debut. He shows a “bullet” half-mile work on Jan. 18, his first drill over this course. #7 HUMERO D’ORO also shows a solid half-mile drill from the move on Jan. 6 giving him a live look for Rodolphe Brisset, a capable first out trainer.
Lasix will be added for many and should benefit #4 ROYAL CONSORT, one that according to the OptixNOTE (EQUIP) extended comment (xN) “probably bled” in his Oct. 31 Churchill Downs debut. The class drop with that EQUIP change is not the most positive as they could have given him the option to try Special Weight for a second start. It is worth noting that Norm Casse ships into Oaklawn Park for the higher purse, a $50k purse that is like the Special Weight purse where he has been training at the Fair Grounds. Value should be expected with this type of runner, and it does not look to be the case as he has been assigned the lukewarm 7-2 morning line favorite. There are similar value concerns with #1 EL POTENTE, one that failed to compete (C OptixGRADE) without excuse when the class drop to maiden claiming was made for his second start Nov. 25 at Del Mar.
RACE 5:
#7 FAY DAN should offer value in this race coming off an EX – EXCUSE at a similar claiming level and conditions Jan. 16. He was given a look heading into that race, when he was making his second start of the meet exiting a higher level (97-91 OFR) starter allowance race Dec. 18 with the class drop to move him forward into a competitive OptixFIGRANGE (OFR) race. His OptixFIG while finishing off the board and even with TROUBLE last month still sit in RANGE (OFR) for today’s event and stack up on the higher side compared to the others in this field looking at current form from the Past 3 Runlines. Fay Dan will return with a rider change, a favorable move given the TACTIC- was part of the overall EXCUSE and suggests positive intent here by trainer Norm McKnight.
His presence in this race with the EX – EXCUSE does not impact the Plot, a Plot that shows minimal changes; however, there has been a Standard upgrade for #2 SALADO, from when this race was carded and cancelled back on February 4th. The analysis for that race can be found here. http://www.brisnet.com/content/2022/02/oaklawn-park-circles-squares-analysis-for-feb-4/
RACE 9:
Many of the players in this race in this race were entered in the finale last Sunday, Feb. 6, a race that was analyzed here (http://www.brisnet.com/content/2022/02/oaklawn-park-circles-squares-analysis-for-feb-6/) on Circles and Squares before the card was cancelled. When races are rescheduled that can impact a horse in terms of their form cycle (time between starts and conditioning) and that has to be considered today even with the minor change waiting just one week in this case. For the most part the Circles and Squares analysis holds today and we will note the runners that were stepping up from the Jan. 8 maiden claiming race (the class challenge present for that group extends to #8 EMITYAAZ today) will not run in this event.
In their absence, a new challenger has appeared in #1 MADELYN’S MAGIC. She will return to make her second start of the meet and off a strong B OptixGRADE with the BTL place finish Jan. 23. She also earned the B OptixGRADE in her Keeneland debut last October and sits as the lone “B” in this field. That class edge will require a step up on OptixFIG compared to others in this field, though is not far off her rivals with potential upside. She ran a similar 78 OptixFIG on debut as a juvenile to suggest a move forward from the 79 last month is not out of the question, a move forward she will require while making her route debut. Those questions require some compensation and should be the case given that unknown and mixed in with today’s field.
