RACE 1:
#2 SATET presents a move forward from the January 7th debut for this second start. On debut, she showed run while WIDE and under a hold (TACTIC-) from the outside post. The race from all signs, including the stablemate, Pattern Bet, finishing second, the debut for Satet looked the part of a PREP and should present a move forward on the class drop and rider change. That class change is also key (DROP) for #7 SOBER SUNDAY exiting the same debut event last month.
#9 DANCIN N THEPULPIT could get overlooked in this race following the step up in class on January 28th, finishing off the board. Connections will return to the maiden claiming level he ran at in his December 31st debut recording a competitive B- OptixGRADE and 75 OptixFIG. #1 GRAMERCY PARK will also find the class change returning from that Special Weight event, her debut three weeks ago. While capable to move forward in just the second start, she will have to do so as well as break clean breaking from the rail today, something she failed to do (SLOG) on debut.
Dancin N Thepulpit’s 75 OptixFIG is the highest recorded in the field and B- OptixGRADE suggest the class edge as well over rivals #3 LORI’S EYES and #4 SHE’S AMAZING both stepping up out of the $20k maiden claiming condition and common race on January 14th.
RACE 5:
#9 PREGAME will find the class relief making his first start for the maiden claiming tag exiting the Special Weight conditioned races. That change comes as he makes his second start off the layoff, for Moquett and with the distance change stretching back out around two-turns. His route numbers (OptixFIG in RANGE/OFR) stack up at this level and should find himself more forwardly placed today and as shown on OptixPLOT as a Large Square in Quad I/II on Surface/Distance. That edge is present over rival #1 TWICE THE PRICE on that also fits with OptixFIG in RANGE though will give up recency making his first start back in 68-days.
#3 MY FAVORITE UNCLE could be favored in this event given the connections and returning from the third place finish on January 14th as the 2.4-1 second choice that afternoon. His late running style and lack of progression this season make him a soft favorite in this race. #6 MINICONJOU has a “longshot” look in this race returning for Milligan. Even though this will be his first start in against older horses, he will find the proper class DROP from his first three starts at the Special Weight level. The January 29th event shows a higher 89-83 OFR than today’s 78-72. Miniconjou ran OptixFIG of 78 and 76, numbers in today’s RANGE from his first two starts and will be tested to transfer those numbers around two-turns.
Coming back from the 204-day layoff, #2 JEDREK earned a 79 OptixFIG in his final start of 2021, the July 29th race at Saratoga, a number that stacks up in RANGE. A repeat effort puts him in the mix today, though does have the layoff and cold Zito barn as hurdles and where the number on the board comes into play. It is also worth noting that July 29th race has not been productive with many still eligible for the maiden condition. One of those rival, #10 MO HEAT, showing up with a subtle class change claimed by Shane Murphy last month.
RACE 8:
This is a tricky allowance race to close out the card. The “Red” Plot Fit is a tell as to the confusing nature of this race and as one that might look straightforward on paper and to horseplayers with classic past performances. The assessment starts with the favorites, using the morning line in this case to go through the field.
#5 WAYAKIN will make his first start back in 266-days and to his credit does show OptixFIG in RANGE that fit in this race on speed. He lacks the current Form returning from the layoff and will be tested for Class comparing this level to his races last season. In terms of pace, he does not hold any edge in this event from his Plot position. While capable, some value is required and does not look to be the case. That same value concern holds for #7 A C EXPRESSWAY one that will be stepping up in class off the most recent win. He does not hold any pace advantage for today’s race shape, sitting off the pace deep in Quad II/IV with the “Snowflake” Contention and lower SpeedRate.
#4 SAFFA’S DAY sits with a more favorable Plot position given the lower Contention and SpeedRate. However, he another that will be stepping up in class coming off the January 16th win a lower 88-80 OFR event. Geroux will take over on Saffa’s Day for Amescua as his regular rider, Santana will retain the call on Wayakin.
Geroux was named to ride #9 OUTASITE when he was entered to make his seasonal debut on January 15th. There were some concerns for Outasite that afternoon with the placement in a $30k N2L race returning from the long layoff; there are similar concerns here as Outasite must improve off his races to date to compete at this allowance level. Those same hurdles are in play for #3 MAJESTIC WEST returning from the 358-day layoff and lacking a class or pace advantage though does hold OptixFIG in RANGE.
The “Snowflake” Contention and lower SpeedRate could present an opportunity here for #2 LOCK UP with that potential early pace advantage from Quad I above the Par Line. His lack of finish is well documented in OptixNOTES/Past 3 Runlines and also present as a Large Circle shown visually on the Plot. This colt has run some of his better races first off a layoff and the timing could be right for those willing to take a swing at a price leveraging the liabilities. #10 MESA MOON is upgraded on the Plot as a Quad I Square tracking off of Lock Up, though there could be more to the story. His Plot position could be flattered by previous race shapes with Slow/Very Slow early dynamics and ground SAVED trips. Those factors could play against him trying to keep up with Lock Up In the early stages of the race and forced to do so from the outside post could take away from his finishing ability late.
#6 LEAGUE OF LEGENDS was able to benefit from the PERFECT trip to prevail in the BLANKET finish breaking his maiden here on January 6th. While those factors hold some negatives as he steps up to take on winners, there are some advantages to compensate in this case. He could fall into a similar trip with his RunStyle, the Plot position as a Quad III Square with the lower Contention. He comes into this race holding his current form, OptixFIG in RANGE, and should be fair number at post time with his odds closer to those last month than today’s morning line.
#1 INCORRUPTIBLE must improve stepping up in class as he makes his first start off the claim and off the place finish and 76 OptixFIG recorded last month. #8 DEFLATER is an outsider based on his current form with OptixGRADE/FIG well below par for this allowance condition.
