RACE 6:
Pace should have a big say in the outcome of this race with many in this field evenly matched on class (OptixGRADE) and speed (OptixFIG) in the Past 3 Runlines. The “Yellow” PlotFit is in play and suggests horses on the extremes, the Quad I Circles; #1 CALL OF HONOR, #3 WARTIME HERO, #4 ENGLANDER; and deeper Closer/C #9 GENERATOR lack an edge in today’s race shape. The “Sun” Contention and moderate SpeedRate should assist horses with tactical speed (Quad I/II) and finishing ability (Squares) an advantage.
The morning line favorite, #10 EASTSIDE COOL, fits that description as a Quad I Square. He is positioned over the Par Line; though drawn outside his Quad I Circle rivals, as well as need-the-lead, #6 JUDGE PHILLIP M, Eastside Cool will be forced to use for position and could lose energy and ground into the first turn. Eastside Cool has shown to need to be on or near the lead as well as that “perfect” trip going two-turns, factors that could take away from that Square, his finishing ability and overall trip. He presents as a weak favorite in this race.
In addition, Eastside Cool also showed a lack of GRIT- with a favorable FREE trip on Jan. 16, a race run at this claiming condition. His rival that day and this afternoon, #11 TILLIS, also recorded a B- OptixFIG and similar OptixFIG (90) and potentially offers value given the 15-1 morning line. Tillis also fits today’s race shape as a stalking Square above the Par Line sitting in Quad II. Those factors not only make him value, but also an in-the-money contender. #5 GREAT FACES also sits logically in this race, holding a similar Quad II Square Plot position and exiting the Jan. 16 common race with the shared 90 OptixFIG and B- OptixGRADE.
#2 SUN DADDY is the new face to the claiming level, finding class relief as he makes his second start of the meet exiting the higher level allowance race on Jan. 8. This claiming class level and relief from the 97-91 OptixFIGRANGE (OFR) is welcome in this case based on his form last season at Woodbine. Positive trainer intent also could be in play, noting Sun Daddy was scratched from a $30k conditioning claiming race back on Dec. 17 on a muddy track. Value should be expected with the 5-1 morning line as a minimum, giving up some recency as well as showing some gaps in his recent work tab, that compensation required with “form” as Sun Daddy fits on the other handicapping factors.
#8 MAKE NOISE is also a new face as he makes his seasonal return this afternoon for Thomas Van Berg. A case can be made for him as he fits on speed and class with form over this course at Oaklawn Park. His Plot position does not fit the profile described earlier in the analysis as a Quad IV Circle. His Plot position can be assessed as “dirtied” up based on trips and race run at a higher class level last year and with the layoff lines. Like rival Sun Daddy, some compensation is required in this case and it should be present given his current running lines and assigned 12-1 morning line. #7 SHOFAR has some value and class concerns with the DROP Projection from the common race last month. His OptixFIG sit on the lower end of the OFR making him a reach here as a top contender, though based on his RunStyle and the Contention, he is capable of picking up a minor share.
RACE 7:
This race was scheduled to run on Sunday Feb. 6 but was rescheduled when the races were cancelled due to weather. That race was analyzed in detail for Circles and Squares http://www.brisnet.com/content/2022/02/oaklawn-park-circles-squares-analysis-for-feb-6/; with just two defections, Connie K and Lil Kings Princess, out of today’s race and should not have impact to the race shape today. #6 MISS IMPERIAL will be added to the field; though similar to those rivals no longer participating in today’s race, Miss Imperial sits below par for this race based on her current form (Standard Plot) and lower OptixFIG/GRADES stepping up in class. #4 SOUTHERN GRAYCE still looks to hold a sneaky pace advantage, noting a rider change today as John Velazquez will be in town to ride, taking over from Florent Geroux as he is at the Fair Grounds today.
