RACE 4:
A competitive claiming race where “pace can make the race” looking at OptixPLOT. This is a scenario where the Contention is high with the “Fire” rating; however, it is paired with a lower SpeedRate. That can be seen visually with the Quad I Contention (Fire) and the field below (SpeedRate) the Par Line. The Contention can assist the assigned 5-2 morning line favorite, #9 ERNIE BANKER, a solid Square in Quad II, though it leaves the door open for one of his rivals to stay on with first run.
#5 SALADO could present as the controlling speed, positioned higher up on the y-axis, though he will be joined at the first call (furthest left on the Plot) by #1 DARKNESS TREMBLES and #3 ALPINE GHOST. Finishing ability comes into play for that trio, including Salado as a Circle.
That set should be tracked by #2 NIP N TUCK based on his Plot position and EP RunStyle. This runner could be popular with the public given the connections as he goes out second off the claim for Federico Villafranco. The class drop suggests some positive intent; however, the OptixFIGRANGE (OFR) from Jan. 8 was listed as 88-80, just slightly higher than today’s 86-78 OFR. Nip N Tuck has races in the OFR, though he does not hold any edge in today’s event to justify that projected shorter number.
#7 LATIN CASINO and #8 BEER CHASER are also positioned in Quad I and showing some finishing ability with the Square for each on Standard or Surface/Distance. Both runners present a move forward as they make their return from that common $50k N2L claiming event on Jan. 8.
#4 APPRAISAL could be overlooked with the fourth-place finish behind Ernie Banker here on Jan. 15. The race shape BUNCHED up early and that assisted the trip for Ernie Banker as he finished in a BLANKET at the wire. Appraisal was closer to the early BUNCHED contention and stayed on well, finishing just off that BLANKET at the wire. He looks capable to move forward making his second start off the layoff and could sit closer to the pace today than his Quad IV position indicates.
#6 WISE KHOZAN is shown as a mismatch (RED) on the OptixRPM (RunStyleMatch) as an EP RunStyle that Plots in Quad IV. His better races last year at FanDuel Park allowed for him to race on or near the lead, though the higher-class par combined with the slow starts out the gate (SLOG) shifted his RunStyle. Tiago Pereira could try and be more assertive today even with another SLOG and try to have this runner closer to the pace than he has been lately.
RACE 6:
This starter allowance presents as a value opportunity with #1 LEADING WEST and #4 TOMA TODO sharing the morning line favorite assignment. This pair lack any edge in terms of pace with the “Red” PlotFit as Circles on both Standard and Surface/Distance. A case could be made with Toma Todo with a pace advantage according to Surface/Distance, but the “Red” Keywords are negative form factors coming into this race. The Standard (current form) Plot does not project that same pace advantage, especially with #3 CARMEL CRUSH (Square) in the field.
Squares should hold an edge in this “chaotic” Red PlotFit. Carmel Crush does fit as a Square on both Standard and Surface/Distance. That said, he will have to deal with the other early Contention of Toma Todo and #7 KHOZAN’S SUCCESS, while making his first start here at Oaklawn Park and first against winners. There could be some positive intent by the connections to ship in here to Oaklawn Park with Carmel Crush for the higher purse and connections wanting to run rather than wait for the next starter allowance race (2/11) at the Fair Grounds. As he has those presented hurdles in this race, value must be taken into consideration with compensation on the board required.
#2 JAY VEE BEE is a logical type returning to this condition with the B OptixGRADE and BTL (better than looked) third place result here on Jan. 7. #5 SPHEROID is also one to follow out of that race and should offer value making his second start off the claim and meet. This race marks his second start of the form cycle and Spheroid has shown a pattern of improvement with a similar cycle, less than thirty days between starts. The front wraps were added by Randy Matthews first off the claim and would monitor for a removal this afternoon.
#8 OPTIMUS KAT can be upgraded on Standard and from his race on Dec. 10 where he was heavily washed out (WARM) and WASTED a lot of energy pre-race. He has trained consistently since that race in the first part of the meet and trainer D. Wayne Lukas returns to this condition where he can race protected while picking up a rider change and weight allowance with the apprentice rider, John Hiraldo, taking over.
#6 MOST SANDISFACTORY could also take part in that early pace as shown as a Square in Quad III. He is an interesting runner back at this level for Robertino Diodoro second off the claim. He was protected at this condition on Jan. 7 and seemed to be given (PREP) the race stepped up in class off the win and with his stablemate at the time Leading West, winning the race. Class is still a bit of test for Most Sandisfactory at this level, requiring a new top to win.
