RACE 1:
Tough to see #2 ITS MY BAG BABY hold the role of the favorite (assigned the 5-2 morning line favorite) in this race as he returns in this spot. Not only does have the 189-day layoff to overcome, but also the trip at this sprint distance with his off-the-pace PC RunStyle. That has been a tougher trip to close in these dirt sprints and could be the case today with the lower SpeedRate in play. That will be kept in mind with value and carries to with pace/trip on #9 MIAS MOONBEAM, a Quad IV Square, though has the edge in recency wheeling back in two weeks off a BTL effort in that sixth place finish on Jan. 22.
The role of the race favorite will likely side with the entry, #1 TRUE SAINT and #1A RAVENS REFLECTION. Both runners are logical in this spot and could hold a pace advantage based on their Plot position in Quad I. #6 EL VENUE also sits in Quad I and has a look returning to make his second start of the meet for Randy Morse. Going back to the first part of the meet on Dec. 10, El Venue was given an EX – EXCUSE with the rough start (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and showing run despite the rider errors (TACTIC- and finds a rider change today) and capable to IMPROVE off that effort.
Value and trip will also be taken into account for #7 FLATOUTJUSTICE wheeling back in just 13 days, going out first off the claim for Federico Villafranco. While he has upside from the trip on Jan. 23 as shown in the Past 3 Runlines, the distance change showing up in this sprint will alter his running style, into more of a closer than the presser part of the PC RunStyle. That change was shown last out with #8 CHICORY BLUE as he cut back to a sprint on Jan. 22. While his 81 OptixFIG and B- OptixGRADE stack up in RANGE for today’s race, this now ten-year-old gelding will be asked to repeat that new recorded top of the season in his fifth start since the meet began, which can often make for a tougher task.
Regression could have come into play for #3 PULL MY CHAIN on Jan. 2 after running a top 82 OptixFIG in his form cycle in the prior start, Dec. 4. This one is not the most consistent type, though he can pop with those select top efforts and some positive intent looks in play as the blinkers will be added; a potential longshot type to hold on for a share. #4 SEEK N JUSTICE ran some competitive numbers here back in 2020, though he has struggled to find those type of races since. It is still worth mentioning that he is a slight flow upgrade after setting a very fast (VF O4S) early pace in the mile claiming race just under two weeks ago. Chel-c Bailey will remain aboard Seek N Justice, and Kelsi Harr will pick up the mount on #5 OLSON for John Haran. This barn and jockey/trainer combination have teamed up with a longshot winner this meet and could show more tactical speed today than his Quad IV position indicates. He has been able to race closer to the pace with the lower SpeedRate in the past.
RACE 3:
The pace scenario is an interesting one as there is a “Fire” Contention, however, it lacks an E runner and only two in the “Fire” with the EP RunStyle designation. That “Fire” is also paired with the higher 63 SpeedRate and shown visually with five of the eight runners above the Par Line. This scenario could assist an off-the-pace type and the 2-1 morning line favorite in this race #2 DESCENTE could take up that role. She has some upside based on her OptixFIG and recent trips as shown in the Past 3 Runlines that makes her a fit in this race.
While she fits the conditions, Descente is also one of those runners above the Par Line and could see her closer to the pace today given those recent trips, a rider change and the class relief as she drops in for the claiming tag. That scenario could have her caught up into that Contentious pace and something to consider as she projects to be favored. #8 PERSISTO could also get swept up in that early pace as she looks to establish position from the outside post. Her current form finding class relief from the WIDE trip Jan. 6 and her OptixFIG in RANGE fit with today’s condition.
#6 CLOSE TO ME fits as the consistent Quad IV Square and should offer value in this race with a move forward as she makes her second start off the claim for Karl Broberg. She will find class relief back in the claiming class level after being protected here Jan. 9. Broberg will also send out #1 IJUSTWANTAHAVEFUN making her second start of the meet exiting the Dec. 17 event run in the WEATHER with rain and fog impacting the visuals. While the running line is not present, the OptixNOTES show she was able to make an EASY LEAD with late pressure with NO_FINISH in that fifth place.
