RACE 8:
This is an interesting allowance race that could have more chances than the two obvious runners, #1 WILDWOOD’S BEAUTY and #3 NOVEL SQUALL. Both have competitive races at this level, with current form this meet, along with OptixFIG in RANGE.
The “Red” PlotFit shown some “chaos” in terms of the race shape and has the combination of a “Sun” Contention paired with a lower SpeedRate. That scenario could suit Wildwood’s Beauty as a Square in Quad I; however, the trip, as she is drawn on the rail, with the other Contention could make things tougher for that winning run. Novel Squall has been able to close into slow early paced races and to her credit has been able to win in that scenario, keying off the April 11 race last year. She will still require a top effort and trip along with racing luck to win from Quad IV.
The lower SpeedRate could move forward a front running type where a “best of the speed” scenario could shake out as the result. #4 SOUTHERN GRAYCE could fall into that role with legit early speed as shown furthest left (first call) on the Plot. She has also run OptixFIG in RANGE for today’s event with those efforts recorded here at Oaklawn Park. She does have to come running with that top effort as she makes her first start back in 203 days, though given her record here and the proven ability to run well fresh going back to last season and even her win on debut, some positive intent could be in play by Brad Cox.
The layoff return for Southern Grayce could also present a move forward with maturity as she makes her first start as a four-year-old. That same improvement angle can be applied to #10 BERRY GOOD as she makes her first start of the season. Berry Good also has some form here at Oaklawn Park keying off her races here last April. She continued with a level of consistency at Canterbury Park, though was exposed at the route distance (SHORTER?) at Keeneland Oct. 21. She has been freshened since that race and will return to the preferred sprint distance today. Trainer McLean Robertson has had her on the grounds since December with a solid work pattern coming into this race.
Class will be put to the test for #2 MELTING SNOW, #7 CONNIE K, and #8 LIL KINGS PRINCESS. This trio is coming back off a win in their most recent start (with favorable trips) and they will be stepping up in class (higher OFR) today.
There is a different level of class test for #5 CHERISHED and #9 ALBERTA SUN as they will return to this N2X allowance condition from slight below par with the average (C+ OptixGRADE) efforts in their most recent start here Jan. 9. #6 COPPELLA will find a subtle class change from the Kentucky races last fall as she returns to Oaklawn Park off the layoff for Philip Bauer. Overall, she is light on class (GRADES) and speed (OptixFIG below RANGE), and while some upside can be projected with age, her numbers have been lower than rivals Southern Grayce and Berry Good, with the similar angle in play.
RACE 9:
A competitive Special Weight race closes out the card. The class edge sides with #8 ICE ORCHID based on her consistent form (OptixGRADES) and speed with OptixFIG in RANGE. Both #3 OPENING NIGHT and #4 AIN’T BROKE can be upgraded with similar B- OptixGRADE at the Special Weight level, along with #6 DUNVEGAN DOLL. These fillies seem the “safe” option in this field and are likely to take the bulk of the public support. It is noted that while capable today, they have yet to run that “winning” B OptixGRADE, the GRADE it often takes to win at the level, and we could see one of the more lightly raced types jump up in this spot.
Before looking at the others in the field, this is a good example of how the GRADE, an overall representation of the effort, stacks up with class. Both #2 I FEEL THE NEED and #9 BEACH KITTEN earned the B OptixGRADE finishing in a BLANKET at the wire Jan. 8. That effort would give them a look back under similar conditions, though that is not the case today as this pair are stepping up in class from the maiden claiming level (58-52 OFR) to the Special Weight (87-81 OFR) class this afternoon. #10 KEEN CONTENDER will also step up exiting that same common race, finishing slightly below with the B- OptixGRADE.
#1 STAR TABLE earned a B- OptixGRADE in her second career start and an improved 82 OptixFIG, a number in today’s RANGE. That effort was earned in her second start, a 15-point improvement from her debut. That is noted as she makes her second start of the form cycle, and she showed some run in spots according to the OptixNOTES extended comment (xN) after the slow start (SLOG) Jan. 14. If she can improve with a similar 15-point jump from the 72 OptixFIG earned last month she could be right in the mix today. This is a bold projection, though one that looks to be compensated on the morning line.
In addition to Dunvegan Doll, Ken McPeek will also send out #11 RUN THE TAP, these two exiting the same race Dec. 17. The race Note (xN) comments on the “open length perfect winner” and Run the Tap breaking slow (SLOG) and racing GREEN finishing behind the spaced out top two finishers for show; Dunvegan Doll slightly more flattered of the two with the race shape and ground SAVED trip. Those conditions could project a move forward for Run the Tap, something she will require off the C+ OptixGRADE.
That same C+ OptixGRADE was given to #12 FAITH’S REWARD in her debut Jan. 14. In addition to the GRADE, she was also given the DROP? Projection (same for #13 SWAP SHOP, currently sitting on the AE), suggesting visually she looks below her competition at this Special Weight level. That same Drop? Projection was given. #7 SWEET BEAUTY also earning a C+ OptixGRADE without the DROP exiting that same event last month, a slight improvement from her debut.
#5 FAST AND FEMININE is the real “wild card” in this race. Her C OptixGRADE and slow start (SLOG) on debut sit well below the others in this field. That said, she was placed in a tougher spot against older fillies and mares for her Jan. 7 debut and a move forward for her is not out of the question. These connections are unknown, though could show some positive intent as she worked twice since the debut, has the addition of blinkers, added ground, and a class change against restricted three-year-old fillies today.
