If Auguste Rodin can put an exclamation point on his glittering career in Sunday’s $7 million Japan Cup (G1), the Aidan O’Brien trainee would furnish two major storylines.
Although he would be the first international shipper to win Tokyo’s signature race since 2005, Auguste Rodin has strong local ties himself as a son of all-time Japanese great Deep Impact. Thus a victory by the Irish-bred colt would be a crowning touch for the legacy of Deep Impact, who began the home team’s Japan Cup-winning streak in 2006.
But Auguste Rodin isn’t the only threat to Japanese dominance. French-based Goliath boasts the highest rating in the field thanks to his King George VI & Queen Elizabeth (G1) romp, leaving Auguste Rodin behind in fifth. Nor can German invader Fantastic Moon be dismissed, as he should get his optimal conditions – a fast-run affair on firm turf – in his swan song.
Leading the home defense are multiple Group 1 star Do Deuce, who comes off a blistering rally in the Tenno Sho Autumn (G1), and dual classic-winning sophomore filly Cervinia.
You can watch and wager on Tokyo’s Sunday program on TwinSpires.com, with the Japan Cup scheduled as the 12th race at 1:40 a.m. ET.
Auguste Rodin’s last hurrah
From Deep Impact’s final crop, Auguste Rodin added to his sire’s extraordinary resume by winning major events at two, three, and four. After turning the Epsom/Irish Derby (G1) double, he defeated older horses in last fall’s Irish Champion (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1).
The Coolmore brain trust could well have retired him on that high note but opted to keep him in training in 2024. While Auguste Rodin’s four-year-old campaign hasn’t been as stellar, he once again excelled on his preferred quick surface in Royal Ascot’s Prince of Wales’s (G1). Auguste Rodin was most recently a close second in his title defense in the Irish Champion, where he came up a neck shy of highly-regarded three-year-old Economics. Checking in third was Japan’s Shin Emperor.
In lieu of another trip to the Breeders’ Cup, Auguste Rodin set his sights on the Japan Cup, in hopes of saluting his late, great sire in his final start. He’s drawn in post 8 with regular pilot Ryan Moore.
“We always dreamed that Auguste Rodin could finish off his career in Japan,” O’Brien said. “Obviously he’s by one of the greatest stallions ever, Deep Impact, and his dam (multiple highweight Rhododendron) is by Galileo, which is one of the greatest stallions ever in our part of the world. So we always dreamed that he could be a horse for the Japan Cup.
“We know how difficult it is to win and how competitive it is, and it’s his third year in training and it’s his last race. It was a dream that we could win the Japan Cup. We’ve tried it before, but no horse was as good as this horse.”
Indeed, O’Brien is 0-for-6 here, but it’s fair to say that his past runners didn’t sport a comparable record. Idaho fared best of the lot when fifth in 2017. The other also-rans were Powerscourt (10th in 2004), Joshua Tree (10th in 2010), Capri (11th in 2018), and then the 2021 duo of Japan and Broome (eighth and 11th, respectively).
Auguste Rodin is also unique among the Ballydoyle flagbearers as a son of Deep Impact. The all-time leading sire in the Japan Cup with four wins, Deep Impact is responsible for Gentildonna (2012-13), Shonan Pandora (2015) and Contrail (2021).
“Deep Impact was an incredible horse. We always watched him racing in awe,” O’Brien said.
“We only got a very small number of them (progeny of Deep Impact) but, classic winner after classic winner, we knew that they were very different. They have great cruise, great travel through the race, really did quicken and had loads of personality as well, so we knew after having the first few, he was a very special stallion.”
Deep Impact has another chance with Justin Palace, most recently an eye-catching fourth to Do Deuce in the Tenno Sho Autumn. Runner-up to world champion Equinox in the record-setting 2023 edition of that same race, Justin Palace scored his signature win in last year’s Tenno Sho Spring (G1) over two metric miles. But the half-brother to multiple U.S. Grade 1 star Palace Malice has also run well in the vicinity of 1 1/2 miles, notably when fourth to Rebel’s Romance in the March 30 Dubai Sheema Classic (G1) on World Cup night.
Goliath bids to confirm King George form
Goliath brings the richest vein of form through the King George at Ascot, where he simply galloped all over Bluestocking, Rebel’s Romance, and Auguste Rodin. That was a breakout performance for the progressive Francis-Henri Graffard trainee, who went off as a 25-1 shot in his Group 1 debut.
Ineligible for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) as a gelding, Goliath was flattered in absentia when Bluestocking won the Paris showpiece. Rebel’s Romance likewise boosted Goliath’s stock by capturing his ensuing starts, including the Breeders’ Cup Turf for the second time.
Jockey Christophe Soumillon, who rode Goliath for the first time in the King George, was bowled over by the way he powered clear.
“Francis was very confident before the race, and he told me that if I get the horse relaxed in the first part of the race, he will be able to quicken really strongly. But I couldn’t imagine he will be that strong, passing champions so easily, like Rebel’s Romance,” Soumillon said. “When I looked at the big screen at the 200-meter mark, I couldn’t believe he won so easily, and we beat the Arc winner so well. That shows you how good he is when everything goes his way. For me, he’s a superstar.”
Goliath was more workmanlike in his tune-up, the Oct. 20 Prix du Conseil de Paris (G2), but he needed that race after a minor setback. Soumillon also cited the unfavorable race flow on heavy going.
“The way he won last time out in Longchamp was just a prep race,” his rider said. “We didn’t have the best run, and it was a very tactical race with very special ground. But for us, the target was to give him a good race to make sure he’s going to build up on this, to travel over to Japan and to be 100% fit for the race on Sunday.”
Now co-owned by John Stewart’s Resolute Racing, which acquired an interest from breeder Philip Baron von Ullman, Goliath has landed the plum draw on the rail. According to JRA stats, post 1 has produced the most top-two (11) and top-three finishers (14) in the 43-year history of the Japan Cup.
Fantastic Moon, Shin Emperor look to rebound from Arc
Neither Fantastic Moon nor Shin Emperor did himself justice on very soft going in the Arc, winding up ninth and 12th, respectively, behind Bluestocking.
Fantastic Moon was expected to scratch when the ground went against him in Paris. He ended up racing after all, only because his connections would have been forced to pay a stiff fine to withdraw that late. The Sarah Steinberg charge is capable in the right circumstances, as evidenced by his biggest wins in the 2023 Deutsches Derby (G1) and the Sept. 1 Grosser Preis von Baden (G1).
Shin Emperor, a full brother to 2020 Arc hero Sottsass, is eligible to turn the page back over a more congenial course. Trained by Yoshito Yahagi, who nearly scored a historic Kentucky Derby (G1) victory with Forever Young, Shin Emperor was a meritorious third in the May 26 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) (G1) in his only other try at this trip. His rallying third in the Irish Champion, his Arc prep while not fully cranked off the summer holiday, suggests that he has longshot potential here.
Yahagi is pleased with Shin Emperor’s condition following his two-race European venture.
“I think they took less of a toll on him than I had thought they would,” the horseman said. “He seems to have gotten a lot tougher mentally. And the experience he gained was in no way a minus. He’s still only three years old, and I think the experience was a huge plus.”
Do Deuce among trio from Equinox’s 2023 Japan Cup
Three who chased home Equinox here a year ago – third-placer Stars on Earth, fourth Do Deuce, and sixth Danon Beluga – are back to try again. Of that trio, Do Deuce rattled off the fastest final 600 meters (about three furlongs) in :33.7, eclipsed only by Equinox himself (in :33.5).
Like August Rodin, Do Deuce can claim Group 1 titles in every season of racing. His 2021 Asahi Hai Futurity (G1) victory made him Japan’s champion two-year-old colt, and he edged a still-maturing Equinox in the 2022 Japanese Derby. At the end of 2023, Do Deuce prevailed in the prestigious Arima Kinen (G1), and in the Tenno Sho last out, he came from the clouds blazing his final sectional in :32.5.
“I didn’t think he could get any better,” trainer Yasuo Tomomichi said, “but I now feel that he actually has gotten a bit better and that he’ll go to the gate in even better condition than he was for the Tenno Sho.”
Do Deuce keeps four-time Japan Cup winner Yutaka Take aboard in post 3.
Stars on Earth reigned as Japan’s champion three-year-old filly of 2022 after landing the first two classics in her division, the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) (G1) and Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) (G1). The ultra-consistent performer subsequently placed in five straight Group 1s, capped by her half-length second to Do Deuce in last December’s Arima Kinen.
But she threw in her only clunker when last seen in the Sheema Classic, checking in eighth behind Rebel’s Romance. Now Stars on Earth launches her comeback off the eight-month layoff. Note that she was resuming from a six-month holiday in last year’s Japan Cup, and she now picks up Yuga Kawada.
Danon Beluga, who was fifth in the 2022 Japan Cup, closed in :33.8 in last year’s running to get up for sixth. But he needs to rebound from a 14th behind Do Deuce in the Tenno Sho. Another concern is that the Noriyuki Hori veteran’s best efforts have come going shorter, especially at about nine furlongs. Winless since his Group 3 score at that distance early in his sophomore season, Danon Beluga also placed in the past two renewals of the Dubai Turf (G1) on World Cup night.
Interestingly, Danon Beluga and Do Deuce are both sons of Heart’s Cry, who came within a whisker of denying British shipper Alkaased in the 2005 Japan Cup. Heart’s Cry floored Deep Impact next time out in the Arima Kinen, Deep Impact exacted revenge in the 2006 Japan Cup, and their sons are carrying on the rivalry here.
Can Cervinia emulate Gentildonna and Almond Eye?
Although Cervinia is attracting plenty of market support, she would have to equal such luminaries as Gentildonna (2012) and Almond Eye (2018) to win the Japan Cup as a three-year-old filly.
Those two historic benchmarks had swept the Fillies’ Triple Crown, while Cervinia won the last two jewels, the course-and-distance Japanese Oaks and the Shuka Sho (G1). Yet to be fair, the daughter of Harbinger turned in her only poor effort in her comeback run in the first classic, the Oka Sho. As a Tetsuya Kimura pupil ridden by Christophe Lemaire, Cervinia represents the same trainer/jockey tandem as Equinox.
Durezza, Sol Oriens fly flag for Japan’s 2023 classic crop
The evidence so far indicates that the 2023 colts’ classics didn’t produce any world-beaters, and Durezza and Sol Oriens would have to up their game to change the narrative. Durezza hasn’t won since scoring in last fall’s Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) (G1), but he wasn’t disgraced when fifth to City of Troy in the Juddmonte International (G1) last time out. Just one spot ahead of him in fourth was Bluestocking.
Sol Oriens was a consistent player in his own division, capturing the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) (G1) and placing in both the Japanese Derby and St. Leger. By the same sire as Equinox, 2016 Japan Cup star Kitasan Black, Sol Oriens has found life tougher versus elders, as exemplified by his recent seventh in the Tenno Sho. But two starts ago, he was runner-up in the Takarazuka Kinen (G1).
Takarazuka Kinen winner Blow the Horn, by 2014 Japan Cup hero Epiphaneia, was in career form in the first half of the year. But he returned with a last-place effort in the Oct. 6 Kyoto Daishoten (G2).
A similar point applies to Struve, who was on an upward curve before flopping in the Takarazuka Kinen at a rain-affected Kyoto. The Hori trainee had previously won the Nikkei Sho (G2) in his Group debut and followed up promptly in the Meguro Kinen (G2).
Rounding out the 14-horse field is rank outsider Karate.
