RACE 10 RAZORBACK STAKES (G3):
The feature race on the card draws a solid field of hard-knocking older handicap horses. The OptixPLOT shows a “Red” PlotFit due to the field not lining up on the diagonal, the faint light line that runs from top left to bottom right. While that is the case, the Plot can be useful as there are minimal changes from Standard (current form) to Surface/Distance as well as the key “Snowflake” Contention and honest 45 SpeedRate. That combination suggests horses that have positional speed (Quad I/III) have a pace advantage, and the ability to finish (Square) will be required.
The Contention rating is due to the amount of horses in Quad I and in this case the “Snowflake” a light contention with just one runner, #6 THOMAS SHELBY, in that Quadrant. In some scenarios, that position and light Contention could hold a major pace advantage with a potential “lone” trip, however in this case the SpeedRate has to be factored as well as the lack finishing ability, Circle, a shape that is given in relationship to the others in this field. The OptixRPM (RunStyleMatch) is also useful in this case, showing four other runners sharing that EP RunStyle, to suggest that pace pressure and pace (race shape) lack any advantages on the lead for Thomas Shelby.
#8 PLAINSMAN is listed as an EP RunStyle despite his position as a Circle in Quad II. Plainsman will return to the two-turn route distance, a change from his three most recent starts, races contested around one-turn. That change in configuration, distance, post, re-addition of blinkers and Joel Rosario back aboard could see Plainsman in that EP RunStyle and pressing Thomas Shelby today. These connections (Brad Cox), along with his current form exiting the graded stakes races with some “trips” as shown in the Past 3 Runlines, could see him take a lot of wagering support. The value does not look to be there in that case, lacking a pace advantage and any strong edge over the others in this field. Plainsman fits with OptixFIG/GRADE in RANGE, those numbers and class do not hold any significant edge over the others in this field to justify the projected shorter post time odds.
A timely conversation took place on Twitter this week discussing Plot pace scenarios when Quad III Squares hold a pace advantage and using American Pharoah’s (Quad III Square) Plot in the Derby as an example. In general, Quad III are horses that hold first call (furthest left) positional speed, often E/EP RunStyle horses. If there is a higher SpeedRate and/or Contention these horses can often struggle keeping up to the second call (top left to bottom right) and allow for the Quad I runners to separate or set up the race for Quad II/IV runners. When there is a lower Contention, like today’s “Snowflake,” Quad III Squares have the positional speed to race close to the pace and finishing ability (Square) to have first run and the ability to hold off the late run of the Quad II/IV horses.
#3 LONE ROCK sits as one of those Quad III Squares; however, today’s Plot position is a change for this individual looking back at his most recent Plot and his position in those races. His position is often in Quad I or when in Quad III split or closer to the Quad I line, a subtle change for him this afternoon sitting deeper in Quad III. Those Plot position were also in lighter Contention scenarios and upgraded in that race dynamic, an edge he does not hold over others in this field. Lone Rock is another in this race projected to be popular with the public and could lack value in that role, a softer/vulnerable favorite.
Similar value concerns for #2 SUPER STOCK, one that does not hold any edge on OptixFIG (speed) or GRADES (class) and sharing a similar Quad III position to Lone Rock. This is a Plot position change for the individual one that has been more effective in Quad II/IV, consistent with his P RunStyle. #4 RATED R SUPERSTAR has been effective as a Quad II Square, though he has also benefited from a higher SpeedRate and/or Contention. That scenario, the 87 SpeedRate, benefited him in the Fifth Season Stakes (BLANKET finish) last month; however, today’s dynamic could play against him on the win end.
#5 PROMISE KEEPER is upgraded with today’s dynamic as an EP RunStyle as a Large Square in Quad III. He has the class (B OptixGRADE) in graded stakes races and speed with his OptixFIG in Range. Promise Keeper will give up recency to others as he makes his seasonal debut in this event, returning from a 231-day layoff. Given the layoff and upside as he returns as a four-year-old, a projection could move that Quad III Square closer to Quad I, a legit pace advantage.
In addition, it is encouraging that the connections pick this graded stakes race to run in as Promise Keeper has been based in Florida for Todd Pletcher. Trainer intention is noted here with the $600,000 purse, a massive purse compared to the graded stakes Promise Keeper would be eligible for at Gulfstream Park: the Gulfstream Park Mile ($200k) or the Ghostzapper ($100k), respectively. Promise Keeper has his works available on XBTV and off those visuals he looks fit and ready coming back off the layoff to suggest they are “in it to win it” today and have the boxes (speed, class, pace) checked as a legit contender (Value/Prime contender) in this race.
#7 LAST SAMURAI was a dominant winner (B+ OptixGRADE) in the Poinsettia Stakes here on Dec. 11. His form (OptixNOTES/GRADES) in the Past 3 Runlines supported him as a contender that afternoon and the race shape, “Sun” Contention set up his run from off-the-pace. He raced that afternoon as a Quad IV Square, a big change and downgrade today as a Quad IV Circle. The race shape does not set up well for #9 SILVER PROSPECTOR as a Quad II Circle combined with his form/class (C+ OptixGRADE) and OptixFIG (speed) below average for this graded stakes race. That carries to #1 POPULAR KID as one that is below as a contender, though as an honest race horse could snag underneath at a price.
