RACE 1:
Pace is tough to handle in this Special Weight race looking at an OptixPLOT with limited data, as many in this field are lightly raced and will make their route debut. That is clearly represented on Surface/Distance with five of the eight runners as Diamonds (lack of data) in the top right-hand corner. The runners with Surface/Distance experience could hold an edge in this case and assessment starts with the trio: #2 LADY COMMANDER, one that is well below on OptixFIG and GRADES, a toss; #3 MARTIQUE MISS, who has suspect form and recent layoff lines with class questionable at this level with the DROP? Keyword; and #8 CHURCH SERVICE, another that is light on class and distance experience with twelve starts and most of those races sprinting.
Recent form and conditioning is preferred in this two-turn scenario, downgrading #6 SALUTE THE FLAG as she makes her first start back in 65-days with some gaps in her works since the Dec. 10 race. First time starter #5 MAGGIE’S WILL has the challenge not only making her debut around two-turns but being asked to do so against older horses, as she debuts today as a recently turned three-year-old. The preference sides with #4 FARASINO of the debut runners; this four-year-old filly is in capable hands and has a steady work tab, but she will still give up experience to the others in this field.
#1 TAP FOR ME stands out looking at her Past 3 Running lines with the strong 90 OptixFIG and B OptixGRADE on debut. That effort was backed up in her second start, the BTL race with significant TROUBLE+ in the fourth-place finish Jan. 7. She will be tested for stamina with the change in distance; with the rider change to Joel Rosario and the rail draw, the tactics today could see her forwardly placed and looking to avoid trouble up front.
#7 GOLDENA will return to make her second start and is coming out of the same race as Tap for Me on Jan. 7. While she is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, she is co-owned by Whisper Hill Farms, the owner of the Steve Asmussen-trained Tap for Me. On debut, Goldena did not show much (C OptixGRADE) in terms of a competitive run; however, she did give the impression she would handle the added ground (STRETCH) and should benefit from her debut experience and the added conditioning with the WIDE trip. As far as conditioning, Goldena had some setbacks last year delaying her debut reading between the lines in her work tab. It is encouraging to see the two works that followed the Jan. 7 race suggesting a move forward today. She will require that move forward from the 58 OptixFIG on debut, though compared to the others in this field the necessary improvement to compete is reasonable.
RACE 5:
The handicapping starts with #6 ABDAN and could even possibly end there as he stands out on OptixFIG with a favorable Quad I Square Plot position in today’s maiden claiming event. Form and class create some reservations as he faltered under similar conditions here Dec. 10 and without excuse (TROUBLE-) as the favorite for his prior connections and trainer, Robertino Diodoro. Abdan has been off 65 days since that race, a reservation as with the string of minor finishes he is stacking up layoff lines, both negatives. Granted that he might just find the right group where those factors negate, he projects to be a very short price in this race.
The presence of #2 WORTHTHEMONEY could make things tougher up front (Quad I Square) drawn inside of Abdan. He has legit natural early speed (EASY_LEAD) and should be assertively ridden on return by Elvin Gonzalez for McLean Robertson.
#7 TANGO KILO is worth a look returning from the layoff for trainer Don Van Hemel. Going back to last season this one showed run in his first two Special Weight starts – though not quite to the level of his competition – with some subtle trips also in play. Tango Kilo improved with the class drop closing out the season Feb. 6 with the B- OptixGRADE and 66 OptixFIG. That effort will require a move forward, though he has been given the time to mature and with Abdan recording a 78 OptixFIG last out, a 10–20-point improvement for Tango Kilo is a reasonable projection. #5 BLUES TUNE also projects to IMPROVE off his most recent race, though he has a tough task today as this recently turned three-year-old will make his first start against older horses.
RACE 6:
The pace makes this race interesting and will be today’s #PlotPuzzle, a hashtag (#) that can be found on Twitter. Typically, the #PlotPuzzle has been an “after” looking at the Plot from a concluded race and looking over the Plot for the result. Bringing the #PlotPuzzle to Circles and Squares we will look at the “before” and the race shape following along in real time on Sunday.
Without getting into the full race handicapping (speed, class, form) and focusing on Pace/Plot, the “Fire” Contention along with the number of runners (six of the eleven) sharing a E or EP RunStyle (OptixRPM) stands out. With that in mind the SpeedRate is on the lower end (19 SpeedRate), not necessarily the higher rating required for the PC/Quad IV types. #4 HERD IMMUNITY looks the most logical of that EP group sitting above the Par Line, in a tracking Quad I/II position. #6 AMONGST FRIENDS looks the most creative and capable stalking off that first flight of horses stalking as a Large Square. I am curious to your thoughts, reply below or using the #PlotPuzzle on Twitter.
Tango Charlie is a square today. Guessing he is usually a circle?
was a circle (mostly Q1) until that 1/16 race, that day Q3 square/Q3 circle