RACE 5:
The start of the late Pick Five is a competitive race, featuring a full field and one with more depth than it may appear on paper. The full field and complexion plays a role in today’s race shape, a chaotic “Red” PlotFit. That continues with the light Quad I, the “Snowflake” Contention, the lack of true “E” Early Pace horses, and five of the six in the main body of the field (#14 LASTCHANCEATGLORY as a main track only) sharing the EP RunStyle. The lighter Contention is paired with the honest 43 SpeedRate where pace and class are necessary components to compete.
Those factors could play against #11 ROAMING UNION, the assigned 5-2 morning line favorite, as he returns today from a 169-day layoff. He fits for today’s race shape as a Quad I Square, though he has done his best running and had most of his success when LONE on the lead. That scenario is less likely with the other EP types in the field and those runners drawn to his inside, including rival #1 DAVID’S GEM from the rail with his legit early speed. Without the “lone” lead and giving up recency to others, Roaming Union has some vulnerabilities to consider at a shorter price in this race. #6 BEAR OAK should offer value of the two with a favorable Plot position in his own right; however, he is another that tends to post winning races also with that “lone” trip. His current form and class has been average this season, represented by the C+ OptixGRADE, and does not find a class change today.
The lighter, “Snowflake” Contention can often upgrade Quad III Squares, horses that show positional, first call speed, though can often lack speed to the second call, yet still hold finishing ability (Square) that allows them to grind out the finish late with first run on the Quad II/IV horses. #8 TASHKENT fits that profile and can be upgraded, further finding class relief from his first two starts here at Oaklawn Park this season. #12 MOST SANDISFACTORY is also upgraded from that Quad III position as he makes his second start off the claim for Robertino Diodoro. He looked to be protected (PREP) on Jan. 7 with the step up in class following the claim and win on Dec. 18. In terms of overall speed (OptixFIG) he is slightly on the lower end of RANGE/OFR and could need a new top to compete where value is required. Tashkent has OptixFIG in RANGE and should offer the value of these two.
Value is also a concern for #7 LEADING WEST as he will be asked to step up in class following the Jan. 16 win. He finds a rider change, and in this case it is a negative losing David Cohen, who rode him to win Jan. 16, o Most Sandisfactory. This start with the 35-day timing also starts a new form cycle for Leading West, a signal he could need a race. #3 KERSHAW, the likely public second choice in the wagering, sits in a similar Quad II Plot position, though finds a shift to a Circle in Standard, his current form. His races this season have recorded B- OptixGRADE, a GRADE just below a winning race for the level, and does not find a class change (Same OFR) this afternoon.
#2 LNGTERMRELATIONSHIP has a long shot look in this race and value required as he returns from the 268-day layoff. The compensation given the morning line and projected favorite with Roaming Union, compared to Lngtermrelationship as a double-digit type of runner. Lngtermrelationship has a favorable running style for today’s race shape, as a Quad II Square and one that is capable to track closer to the Quad I runners, returning with the class change from last year. Ron Moquett claimed this horse back in 2019 and has for the most part kept him protected since that claim. This horse had prior success at the similar claiming level to today’s race and looks placed to compete for the connections. He fits this level going back to 2020, his claiming race here and with Joel Rosario aboard, earned a solid 95 OptixFIG and B- OptixGRADE, both factors in RANGE to compete here.
With #9 THE QUEENS JULES stretching out to a route and #10 PINSON another EP type in the field adding to the Contention/SpeedRate, Quad IV runners, #4 COAL TRUTH and #5 GAGOOTS can be upgraded, especially in the underneath spots, projected as some of the longer priced (30-1 morning line) horses in this field. They are not out completely of the “win” picture, with Gagoots finding class relief and holding a 90 OptixFIG in his Past 3 Runlines. Coal Truth has hidden and improving form with a long shot look to him on a progressive, (improving GRADE/FIG) form cycle. He holds races at this claiming level from last season that make him a player with a win and strong fourth place finish at this $30k claiming level pairing up 94 OptixFIG in both of those races.
