RACE 4:
The marathon distance and the timing off this allowance race can be seen as a prep for the $150,000 Temperance Hill S., a similar 12-furlong event, run on April 2. That comes into play as many in this field will show up for their connections looking ahead toward that upcoming stakes event. Fitness, conditioning, and a level of class is required for this type of distance and noted as a possible prep for some as they return from slight layoffs with recency upgraded in this case.
Asmussen will send out a pair in this race with #4 TENFOLD the likely fancied of the duo and possibly with the public as well. As an individual he has been holding his form in terms of speed with consistent OptixFIG going all the back to his debut in 2018. While he is given credit for consistency on speed, he has been also consistent in failing to win without excuse and in spots where he figured as a logical contender. Those conditions look similar to today where he fits on class and speed with some relative recency coming into this race. One has to look back to the 2019 Pimlico Special (G3) to find his most recent win and even a “winning” B OptixGRADE race something he has failed to record since. Even with his record the public could find him the “safer” option with name recognition and value comes into concern in that case especially with other alternative options.
One of those alternatives is his Asmussen trained stablemate, #2 ALLEGE. Allege is one that fits these conditions with upside, hidden class and should offer value in this race. Allege holds upside as he is restarting his form cycle and fits on speed with OptixFIG in the OptixFIGRANGE (OFR) for this race. In addition, he has shown stamina breaking his maiden at the 10-furlong distance and pairing up OptixFIG in his 10-furlong allowance races at Churchill Downs last year. He is also upgraded on that noted current form cycle and conditioning with his races this season and timing as he returns 28-days later. Form cycle comes into play as Allege looks to rebound from the Jan. 28 race finishing a distant seventh, a running line and finishing position that should deter the public. There is upside present noting Allege ran against the dynamic impacting his result on Jan. 28 behind the open length winner, Warrior’s Charge. The two horses that ran back from that event improved their speed figures in an allowance on Feb. 19; the third-place finisher Trident Hit winning with a 97 OptixFIG and ninth-place runner Catdaddy an improved fourth. Allege projects a similar move forward as tactically he was taken out of his running style racing much further off the pace than his usual run style showing up today as a Standard Quad I Square along with a rider change to David Cohen.
Franco was aboard Allege in that Jan. 28 race and sticks with #7 STRONG TIDE. Strong Tide also holds recency as this will be his third start of the form cycle and has been holding his form this year as well as showing stamina in the longer distance races. His show finish in the John B. Connally Turf Cup (G3) is upgraded as the finish was a three horse blanket at the wire. While he fits logically, the ask off those two top efforts run under short rest, and today at a short price, run the risk of showing a peak in his current form cycle; another top effort would be required to win today.
#1 ORIGINAL INTENT also projects to move forward today showing up for his second start after the 266-day layoff. The “Original Intent” for this horse coming back from the layoff is likely to run in longer races such as the Temperance Hill, based on his marathon form from last season which included a win in 14-furlong race that marks the end of the Oaklawn Park meet. While a move forward is projected in his second start of the form cycle, he could still find himself a race out as well as the class test to prove himself at this higher allowance level.
The connections for #5 CUPID’S CLAWS will look to regroup with the change in circuit, surface, and distance for his first start outside of California. He has established form in those longer distance races out west and running at the graded stakes level. Those efforts fit in with today’s group though do not offer much of an edge over the others. He does look to benefit from the class relief exiting those graded stakes races though will also note at times his form was flattered in those events based on contact fields and race dynamics.
Both #3 DYNADRIVE and #6 YOU’RE TO BLAME are capable types in this field though given the timing both present as horses to follow in the Temperance Hill Stakes for their connections. Dynadrive will land here in his seasonal debut and has a tougher task following a 111-day break to win at this distance. To do so would require a level of fitness and a top effort that could be a race out though this placement suggests the right “prep” for this one going forward. You’re to Blame ran in the 2021 Temperance Hill (along with rival Tenfold) with the race in a different part of the calendar year run on March 13. There was positive intent for You’re to Blame in that race as he was making his second start of the form cycle, however, did not have much of a chance to compete in that race with a wide trip at the back of the pack while the longshot pacesetter, Carlos L. took the field gate-to-wire chased by place finisher, the Diodoro trained, Lone Rock.
RACE 5:
#2 MOONLIGHT BLAZE will have another look today on Circles and Squares as she makes her third start of the meet. She was mentioned on Jan. 9 with the class drop following her Special Weight debut showing run (MOVE) after a slow start (SLOG) on Dec. 26. She will return to the maiden claiming level with a rider change to Chel-C Bailey following the EX – EXCUSE last month in a better than looked (BTL) overall effort as shown in the Past 3 Runlines. She does have the pattern of breaking slow (SLOG) which is a liability and should be compensated for on the board. The race shape today shows the “Fire” Contention and honest 55 SpeedRate to assist her late (Quad IV Square) run.
On the opposite end of the Plot, #1 PURE SILK projects to find a more favorable trip with the post position change regrouped from the Jan. 9 maiden claiming event where she was forced to send drawn widest in the 12-horse field. The Surface/Distance Plot suggests she can track off the first flight, the Quad I runners, and stalked with the ability to finish/Square.
As far as that Quad I set: #3 MISS ALPHA BELLA positioned as a Quad I Square with the positional speed to the first call could present a threat given that pace advantage. She would need all advantages as one that has multiple chances at this condition and failed to win or record that B OptixGRADE in 18 starts to date. #8 MADAM PIE, the morning line favorite, also has some value concerns after faltering under similar conditions on Jan. 9 given a favorable trip without excuse. Those same concerns come into play for #10 DEDE’S TRICK as the most “experienced” in this field and one that is tough to support as an individual though could find that support from the public with the barn change and Diodoro taking over. #11 UNDECODED can be upgraded on Standard as a Quad I Square and the more lightly raced of the group as she finds class relief to run her in this fourth lifetime start, though will have to overcome the outside draw.
#9 POOLSIDE MANNERS also comes into this event lightly raced and will make her first start at this lower maiden claiming class level. She was scheduled to run here under similar conditions ($20,000 tag, 1 1/16 miles) back on Jan. 28 though scratched unable to participate. She should benefit from the local start on Jan. 8. That event has been productive with one next out winner and the sixth-place finisher, Burrow Down, coming back in her next start (2/19 MDN $30k) to finish second with an improved 82 OptixFIG. She will require that step forward taking on older today.
#4 GAME OF INCHES will find the lateral class change (OFR) taking on older for the connections and will note she was scratched as part of an entry out of the Jan. 9 common race. While she is tough to make a case for based on her running lines and speed figures the added ground (STRETCH) for today’s race should benefit her and present a move forward. #7 MY DADDY’S TRAINER will also take on older in her second start of the meet. She has run her faster OptixFIG over a fast track, though still requires a move forward from that recorded 47 and 53 OptixFIG as well as show more finish/Circle. #5 SMOKING BOSSA NOVA is another that requires a move forward in terms of OptixFIG though could get back to a top effort in this third start of the form cycle. The “Fire” Contention and above average 55 SpeedRate can assist for underneath based on her Plot position as a Quad II Square.
