BELMONT REPORT
JUNE 4, 2009
by James Scully
The Belmont S. (G1) discussion starts with MINE THAT BIRD (Birdstone), the
2-1 favorite on the morning line for the 141st running of the 1 1/2-mile
classic. It’s been quite the journey for the diminutive gelding.
Named the Canadian champion two-year-old based on his exploits on Polytrack
last season, Mine That Bird was transferred to Chip Woolley and sent to New
Mexico following a last-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). He
opened 2009 with a pair of less-than-stellar performances, finishing second in
the Borderland Derby and fourth in the Sunland Derby, but still had the graded
earnings to make the Kentucky Derby (G1) field based on his victory in the 2009
Grey S. (Can-G3). He was overlooked at 50-1 over the sloppy track at Churchill
Downs.
Mine That Bird dropped several lengths behind the next-to-last runner
entering the clubhouse turn in the “Run for the Roses” and continued to lag far
behind along the backstretch. With Calvin Borel at the helm, he unleashed a
scintillating rail rally on the far turn to reach contention and blew past the
leaders in the stretch, drawing off to an amazing 6 3/4-length upset. The
surprise result had all the makings of a fluke, but Mine That Bird backed it up
two weeks later over a fast track in the Preakness S. (G1).
At Pimlico, Mine That Bird wasn’t able to save ground, closing wide on the
far turn and into the stretch, and was momentarily checked in traffic turning
for home. He still offered another terrific late burst but ran out of room at
the wire, falling a length short to Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d’Oro), who
enjoyed a dream trip and was able to get away from her rivals at the top of the
stretch before barely holding on. Mine That Bird still managed to flatter
himself in defeat.
The focus now shifts to Saturday’s “Test of the Champion,” and Mine That Bird
will be a deserving favorite over the expansive oval at Belmont Park. Listed as
the 2-1 choice on the morning line, his odds could be much lower come post time.
A big question is how much did the Derby and Preakness take out of him? The
Triple Crown takes a toll, but it’s all a matter of speculation as to how much.
Mine That Bird certainly appeared in fine fettle when breezing four furlongs in
:50 at Churchill on Monday morning, recording a final eighth of a mile in :11 3/5
prior to galloping out strongly in 1:02 1/5 and 1:15. The work made
Borel excited.
Borel will bring plenty of confidence to the Belmont. After winning both the
Derby and Kentucky Oaks (G1) at the beginning of May, he kept his momentum going
two weeks later aboard Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness, and he’s remained hot
in the interim. Borel went after the Memorial Day weekend programs at Churchill
with a gusto, making a battle of it with Julien Leparoux for leading rider
honors when capturing 13 races over a three-day period (May 23-25).
While Mine That Bird supporters can claim that the jockey switch cost him the
Preakness, his connections remained loyal. They realized that Borel gives them
their best chance and always wanted him back.
“You watch when he comes out on the track with (exercise rider) Charlie
(Figueroa) or anybody else and he has his head up and is looking around,”
Woolley explained. “With Calvin, he just drops his neck and knows it is time
to go to work. I think we are in good shape going into the Belmont.”
There’s a chemistry factor going on.
Humble to a fault, Borel is now showing some bravado, openly predicting
victory following Mine That Bird’s sharp workout on Monday. “We’re gonna win, no
questions asked,” Borel stated. And he remained confident when meeting with the
media on Tuesday in Manhattan, telling the large gathering at Madison Square
Garden, “He’ll win — that’s what we’re here for.”
He has me believing in the “Bird.” The Derby winner is the fastest horse in
the field based on BRIS Speed ratings (110 career-best), and the Belmont seems best-suited to his breeding. Sire Birdstone turned in his greatest
performance in the 2004 edition, denying Smarty Jones the Triple Crown with a
one-length upset, and Mine That Bird could get rolling in the sweeping turns of “Big
Sandy.”
Rest of the Contenders
CHARITABLE MAN (Lemon Drop Kid) is the second-choice on the morning line at
3-1 and exits a commendable 3 3/4-length score over the track in the May 9 Peter
Pan S. (G2). Three-for-three on dirt, the Virginia-bred colt also captured the
seven-furlong Futurity S. (G2) at Belmont last September. Sidelined over the
winter by an injury, the Edward Evans’ homebred finished a disappointing seventh
when making a belated three-year-old debut in the Blue Grass S. (G1). His
connections contributed the setback to the synthetic track, but it was the
colt’s first effort at two turns.
Charitable Man figures to have a tactical advantage with his speed. A
front-running maiden winner, he tracked wicked fractions in the Peter Pan before
pouncing, but there is very little pace in the Belmont field. He could wind up
showing the way at a moderate tempo, or he figures to be sitting a close second
under Alan Garcia.
DUNKIRK (Unbridled’s Song) is another top win contender based upon the
promise he displayed at Gulfstream Park earlier this year. He opened his racing
career in January with a smart 5 3/4-length win and followed with an
ultra-impressive, nine-furlong allowance victory that netted him a 107 BRIS
Speed rating. In the Florida Derby (G1), the gray colt offered an excellent
rally on the far turn to reach contention but got out-finished by Quality Road
(Elusive Quality), who may have been the Derby favorite if not sidelined by a
quarter-crack.
After stumbling at the start of the Derby and getting checked repeatedly in a
congested pack approaching the first turn, Dunkirk ultimately spit the bit and
checked in 11th. That race should serve as a good learning experience. He owns
more tactical speed than he’s being given credit for and figures to sit a good
stalking trip in midpack with John Velazquez.
CHOCOLATE CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]) was pinched at the start of the Derby and
ground out a fifth-place finish from off the pace while making his first start
on a conventional dirt track. He’s been freshened since then by Jerry
Hollendorfer and is eligible to run better. Bred to relish a fast track, the
Grade 3 winner appears to be training forwardly in preparation and will pick up
the services of Garrett Gomez.
SUMMER BIRD (Birdstone) broke his maiden three starts back and stepped up
with a top-class showing when making his first start against winners in the
Arkansas Derby (G2), rallying boldly for third. He lacked seasoning when facing
18 rivals on Derby Day, but the chestnut colt gave a fine account of himself in
sixth, losing a lot of ground while wide on both turns. Trainer Tim Ice wisely
freshened his charge for the Belmont, and Summer Bird may continue to show more.
FLYING PRIVATE (Fusaichi Pegasus) is the best hope of two entrants from D.
Wayne Lukas. Runner-up in the Lane’s End S. (G2) over Polytrack, the bay colt
was no factor in the Arkansas Derby or Kentucky Derby, but he suddenly found his
form in the Preakness, rallying for fourth-place honors. The added distance
doesn’t look like a detriment, and Flying Private deserves some consideration
for the bottom of the exotics.
MR. HOT STUFF (Tiznow) is an intriguing longshot. A full brother to multiple
Grade 1 winner Colonel John, the WinStar homebred owns only a maiden win, but
the late-developing colt displayed promise when finishing third in the Santa
Anita Derby (G1) and Sham S. (G3). He trained forwardly on dirt for the Derby,
but never fired over the sloppy track when 15th. Colonel John ran well below
expectations in the 2008 Derby, but he moved forward significantly in his second
dirt start, capturing the Travers S. (G1). Mr. Hot Stuff will look to do the
same.
MINER’S ESCAPE (Mineshaft), who along with BRAVE VICTORY (Lion Heart) is one
of two outsiders trained by two-time Belmont winner Nick Zito, may come out
winging it from the start under Jose Lezcano. Zito upset last year’s Belmont in
wire-to-wire fashion with Da’ Tara (Tiznow), and Miner’s Escape exits a
front-running win in the Federico Tesio S.
Peter Pan third-placer Brave Victory will likely want no part of the
12-furlong distance, and LUV GOV (Ten Most Wanted) is probably in too deep. The
Lukas trainee needed 10 starts and a sloppy track to break his maiden, and he
was no factor when eighth in the Preakness.
Analysis
After discounting his chances last week, I’ve come to my senses with Mine That Bird.
The unproven competition is a big reason. Charitable Man may have been
visually impressive last time out, but he’s never earned big Speed ratings while
defeating questionable rivals. And I don’t like the fact that he’s never won
around two turns. Despite an encouraging pedigree, the 1 1/2-mile distance may
be a problem. Dunkirk is even a
bigger question mark. He lacks a stakes victory, and all of his wins have come
at Gulfstream Park. The lightly raced colt may not be ready for his best effort
at Saturday’s marathon distance.
I don’t see much incentive in taking a short price with either, and the
Belmont is ripe for an upset if Mine That Bird falters.
For me, though, it’s all about the little gelding and Borel. The 42-year-old
Cajun will seek to become the first jockey to sweep all three
Triple Crown races in the same year with different horses, and he’ll be counting
on a big turn of foot to accomplish the task. Mine That Bird won’t be as
far back early while traveling in the last flight of runners on Saturday, and
I’ll look for him to kick it in like he did in the Derby and Preakness.
I’ll make a straight win wager on Mine That Bird and look for value in the exotics over Chocolate Candy, Summer Bird and Mr. Hot Stuff.
Enjoy the Belmont!