HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
JANUARY 9, 2009
by Dick Powell
Gulfstream Park opened its 2009 meet with perfect weather and great racing.
Let’s hope they can keep it up for the entire meet.
The fireworks began early as the Spectacular Bid S. was carded as race four
on Saturday. Newly turned three-year-olds going six furlongs may not be the best
barometer for the Run for the Roses, but it usually promises to be an exciting
race. The public sent out Silent Valor (Lion Heart) as the 13-10 favorite based
on a fast stakes win last year at Monmouth going six furlongs and two decent
efforts in Grade 1 stakes going two turns. Close behind in the betting was You
Luckie Mann (Exchange Rate), who won a stakes at Calder last out by 11 lengths
while earning a gigantic BRIS Speed rating of 113.
Third in the betting at 9-2 was Ken and Sarah Ramsey’s NOTONTHESAMEPAGE (Catiennus).
A brilliant maiden winner second time out at Churchill last April in
blazing-fast time, he failed to recapture that form in three subsequent starts.
Off since the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) 91 days earlier, he was working bullets
for Wesley Ward at Gulfstream the past month.
In a field that looked like it was loaded with early speed, Elvis Trujillo
sent Notonthesamepage to the front right from the start. From his rail position,
he got the jump on You Luckie Mann and had a half length lead going into the far
turn, covering the first quarter in :21.98. Instead of trying to give him a
breather, Trujillo played catch-me-if-you-can and threw in a :22.75 second
quarter, hitting the top of the stretch with a 1 1/2 length lead.
You Luckie Mann tried to chase in vain and Silent Valor couldn’t keep up with
the increasingly fast pace. Notonthesamepage continued to pour it on in the
stretch and his lead grew to 8 1/4 lengths at the wire, stopping the teletimer
in 1:08.48. Luckie Vann held on for second while Silent Valor faded to fourth.
Notonthesamepage earned a 109 BRIS Speed rating for his win and is scheduled
to make his next start in the one-mile Fountain of Youth S. (G2) at Gulfstream
on February 28. He has no graded stakes earnings and if the Ramseys consider him
a Derby (G1) prospect, his opportunities to win enough graded stakes earnings
are going to be few and far between. Considering that his next start will be a
one-turn mile, that tells me that they have serious doubts about getting two
turns. But, for now, he’s one of the fastest sophomore sprinters in America.
CHECKLIST (Gone West) might not have run as fast as Notonthesamepage did, but
his career-debut win in 1:10.28 while in race six was very impressive. Johnny
Velazquez put the Todd Pletcher trainee on the lead right from the start and
from there he cruised to an easy four-length win. His dam won more than $835,000
in only 10 starts, including wins in the Black Eyed Susan (G2) and Delaware Oaks
(G2) going two turns. He’s another wise purchase by Starlight Partners. Second
was 6-5 favorite More Than Willing (More than Ready), who rallied wide from far
back after breaking awkwardly.
The next day, three-year-old fillies were in action in the Old Hat S. (G3)
going six furlongs. The temptation when analyzing a race that is loaded with
early speed on paper is to look for a closer. But sometimes the speed doesn’t
back up and the Old Hat turned into a 2009 version of the 1944 Carter H., which
resulted in a three-way dead heat.
It looked like Frolic’s Dream (Smoke Glacken), Elusive Heat (Elusive Quality)
and GEMSWICK PARK (Speightstown) all needed to have the lead and they did.
Elusive Heat, a daughter of the great sprinting mare and champion Xtra Heat
(Dixieland Heat), was able to outsprint the field and held a length lead in
:22.17.
Gemswick Park and Velazquez were applying pressure on the outside while
Frolic’s Dream saved ground on the rail. Only a head separated Elusive Heat and
Gemswick Park at the top of the stretch while Frolic’s Dream got off the rail
and began to rally on the outside. None of the three would give an inch and they
all hit the wire together, with Gemswick Park putting her nose down on the wire
and Elusive Heat beating Frolic’s Dream by another nose.
Under the allowance conditions of the stakes, Gemswick Park only had to carry
113 pounds since she was still eligible for non-winners of one race other than.
Elusive Heat carried 115 since rider Edgar Prado was two pounds over. Frolic’s
Dream carried 119 pounds since her stakes wins were ungraded. All three fillies
are bred to be fast so I wouldn’t think that any of the three will be major
factors when the races get longer.
For those of you keeping score at home, the turf rail for opening day was at
zero despite the overnight sheet, the past performances and results charts all
indicating that it was set at 12 feet. When the scratches and changes were
announced before the races began, it was correctly announced that the turf rail
was at zero as it was on Sunday.
The turf was firm for both days of the initial weekend and a variety of
running styles were successful.