HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
MARCH 13, 2009
by Dick Powell
Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans will be the focus of the American
racing scene this weekend as they host a quartet of Grade 2 stakes races worth a
cool $2 million. The four stakes will be coupled in a Pick 4 that should attract
great interest from players that like to challenge themselves with races that
are extremely difficult to handicap.
Race 6, the first of the four stakes, is the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) for
three-year-old fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. RACHEL ALEXANDRA (Medaglia d’Oro), who romped last out at Oaklawn
in the Martha Washington S., is the standout in a field of six. She has won both of her two-turn starts and
recorded BRIS Speed ratings of 103 and 102 while dominating her rivals.
FOUR GIFTS (Even the Score) was a good second in the Silverbulletday S. (G3) here last out and shows a
Grade 3 stakes win at Delta Downs late last
year in her two-turn debut for Steve Asmussen. AFRICAN SKIES (Johannesburg)
will make her dirt debut for Patrick Biancone and is eligible to improve with the
change in surface and in her second start off a long layoff. FLYING SPUR (Giant’s
Causeway) was a fast maiden winner here two back then lost all chance with an
awkward start in the Silverbulletday last out.
The key to the Pick-4 is what do you do with Rachel Alexandra — do you single
her or try to beat her? She’ll be odds-on in the win pool and will take most of
the money in the first leg. The rest of the Pick-4 is real tough so if you
spread out in the first leg you better have some strong opinions in the
following three races.
The second leg is race 7, the New Orleans H. (G2). Santa Anita has
their “Big ‘Cap” and Fair Grounds has their “No ‘Cap.” This year’s edition has
attracted 14 hard-knocking older horses going 1 1/8 miles on the main track. For
all those that claim they want a steady diet of competitive races with large
fields, I give you the No ‘Cap.
I have always had a soft spot for HONEST MAN (Unbridled’s Song) and will give
him a slight edge against these. He had three big allowance wins here last year
then went on to capture the Iselin H. (G3) at Monmouth going Saturday’s distance.
He began this year with a third in the Louisiana H. when he set a fast
early pace, then romped in the Mineshaft H. (G3) when he stalked the pace
from post 8. He has consistently run well over this track and should have
enough tactical speed to overcome post 10.
Of the rest of the hard-to-separate group, I like DRY MARTINI (Slew Gin Fizz), who was a good second in the Sunshine Millions
Classic despite a poor start. He finishes
his main track races like he’s running on the turf and should be rolling late
with Edgar Prado. RICHARD’S KID (Lemon Drop Kid) is a late-developing closer
that has won four of his last five starts at Laurel for Dick Small. MY PAL
CHARLIE (Indian Charlie) set a slow pace and then was outkicked here last out, but he won the Super Derby (G2) in a romp last September and ran well in the
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He has to overcome post 14, but at least there is a long
run into the first turn. It’s not an exaggeration to say that anyone in this
field can win.
Next up is the Mervyn Muniz Memorial H. (G2) going 1 1/8 miles on the
turf. Fourteen are entered with one coupled entry. PROUDINSKY (Silvano) won this
race last year for a very satisfying win for Bobby Frankel, who was close friends
with the late Mervyn Muniz. He won his last start in Santa Anita but has to
overcome highweight and post 14. Victor Espinoza rides him for the first time.
WESLEY (El Prado) just missed two starts back on the turf at Gulfstream then
drew post 12 on the main track at Santa Anita. He draws well here and gets
Johnny Velazquez. CORRUPT (Belong to Me) ran well in his first start off a long
layoff and should be forwardly placed. He’s run well over this course and gets
Robby Albarado.
WINDWARD ISLANDS (Cozzene) heads up a Mark Frostad-trained
entry that likes this turf course and has an enormous late kick.
The last leg of the Pick-4 is the Louisiana Derby (G2), which has 10 sophomores going 1 1/8 miles on the main track. There will be a lot of attention
on PATENA (Seeking the Gold) now that he’s trained by Rick Dutrow. He was a good
second last out here in the Lecomte S. (G3) and has trained well since then.
But the key for my Pick-4 will be FRIESAN FIRE (A.P. Indy), who has won the Lecomte and Risen Star (G3) here already for Larry Jones. He’s training
brilliantly with a :58 1/5 five-furlong breeze five days ago and has shown more
tactical speed since blinkers were added three starts back.
I have always been a sucker for pedigrees and I love Friesan Fire’s. By A.P.
Indy out of a Deher mare, he has stamina on
top and speed and brilliance on the bottom. A.P. Indy is out of a Secretariat mare and Dehere is out of a Secretariat mare so Friesan Fire is
in-bred 4X3 to the great Triple Crown winner. He has a high cruising speed and
the ability to finish his races strong. He has to overcome post 9, but
everyone carries level weights in here.
My $20 Pick-4 ticket will look like this:
| Leg A: | 3 | |
| Leg B: | 10 | |
| Leg C: | 1 | |
| Leg D: | 9 | |
| Total = | $20 |
My $1 Pick-4 ticket will look like this:
| Leg A: | 2,4,5 | |
| Leg B: | 1,2,4,6,9,10,12,14 | |
| Leg C: | 1,5,6,8,12,13 | |
| Leg D: | 9 | |
| Total = | $144 |