CHURCHILL NOTEBOOK
MAY 21, 2009
by Frank Cotolo
The Memorial Day weekend will be filled with action at Churchill Downs,
unaffected by the recent cut in racing days from 52 to 45. Post time for the
Thursday-Monday racing is 12:45 p.m. (EDT), except for the special “Friday
Happy
Hours” program that features a first-race post of 2:45 p.m. Racing will resume
next week on Friday.
The Holiday Weekend will offer plenty of wagering opportunities, including a
pair of enticing, graded stakes: Saturday’s Louisville S. (G3) and Monday’s Winning
Colors S. (G3).
Speaking of schedules and positive changes, new lights are being installed in
order to accommodate three nighttime programs at Churchill on June 19, June 26 and
July
2. If the evening racing is received well, permanent lighting could be coming
for future
evening cards. Details on those programs will
be
available in upcoming Notebooks.
Track Stats
The message surfacing from handicapping last week is this: do not be afraid of
speed,
even though statistically, off-the-pace runners are producing most winners in
routes and
sprints. However, the stat is not so pure if you ad winners racing close to the
pace. A
good number of the 177 races presented so far include horses that but for one of
two calls
are in the mix of the race early, many we assume must be purposely stalking.
The track is, therefore, favoring speed and penalizing it, for the most part, in
duels. This
adds up to good news for handicappers because the lay of the land, so to speak,
is
remarkably level. And with horses already beginning to repeat Churchill
performances,
strong handicapping elements are further supported.
The margin of favorites winning through 177 races rose only slightly from 29.6
percent
to 30 percent. So without any particular bias surprises or any parade of false
favorites, the
betting public is in its normal league of productivity. That is good news for
value-hunters
and accurate personal odds-line makers.
The trainer situation is similarly consistent. Steve Asmussen’s lead in raw win
numbers is
based on sending out the most horses thus far (45 through May 17). And Bill
Mott’s lot is
a distant second but not surprisingly strong (he has sent out 26 with six
winners, earning
him only three points the better than Asmussen in win percentage).
Ian Wilkes, as predicted, is going strong. He maintains a 25-percent win clip
and a better
earning score than the 11 trainers before him in the standings.
Forest Kaelin
has joined the top-20 list with a 33-percent win average from a dozen leaving
the gate.
Unlike Wilkes, Kaelin is amassing his numbers in overnight events.
Coming Up
Saturday’s feature, the $100,000 Louisville, is a
turf event going 1 1/2 miles for older horses.
The Louisville will present a field of nine, including SPICE
ROUTE (GB)
(King’s Best), who exits a win in the Elkhorn S. (G2) at Keeneland. Also entered
are ALWAYS FIRST (GB) (Barathea [Ire]), fifth in the Elkhorn; Grade 1 winner BRASS HAT
(Prized), who recorded a fast-finishing third in the Elkhorn; GANGBUSTER (Langfuhr),
a runaway 10 3/4-length winner of the Fort Harrod S. over Keeneland’s Polytrack; MY HAPPINESS
(Arg)
(Festin [Arg]); SILVER MOUNTAIN (Victory Gallop); THABAZIMBI (Empire Maker);
Grade 3 winner and 2008 Louisville runner-up TRANSDUCTION GOLD (Formal Gold);
and stakes victor WHY TONTO (Indian Charlie).
The Ford Harrod romp from Gangbuster (he paid $34.20), which was his
first
stakes win, makes the four-year-old Kentucky-bred trained by Keith Desormeaux a
firm
investment here. His sire has produced a good number of stakes winners and
Gangbuster
looks to be a tough type with a good shot at improving his stakes credentials.
Monday’s $100,000 Winning Colors is a six-furlong race for fillies and mares.
Stakes Review
We warned everyone that trainer Ian Wilkes’ stock was going head first into all
stakes so
far this seasonm, and he did it again with our pick in the $106,900 Matt Winn
S. at
Churchill last Saturday.
The
Wilkes-trained CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN (Candy Rode [Arg]) earned the victory over the
favored Cash Refund (Petionville), who was an unbeaten gelding going into this race.
“Candyman” stalked
Cash Refund
until the stretch when the gelding rallied past for a three-quarter length
victory under jockey Javier Castellano. The three-year-old covered seven
furlongs over the “good” track in 1:22 4/5, and “Candyman” recorded his fourth
stakes victory, raising his bankroll to $410,423.
HORSES TO WATCH
Friday (5/15)
2ND — CHARLIE TRUMPER (Giant’s Causeway) broke badly and was bumped early and then again late. In
between he was trying very hard to race, going three wide with the attempt. That
is way
too much work for 1 1/16 miles in a maiden claimer.
4TH — SMOKE WARNING (Smoke Glacken) wanted to run very much but was stalled behind a row of
horses. Going three wide to make up for lost ground, he raced evenly despite the
trouble.
5TH — TEMPO APPROVED (With Approval) dueled early and boldly for a 29-1 shot. Then the going got
tight and he went four wide, salvaging the race with a third-place finish.
7TH — STAMP (Include) needed this race at Churchill, coming from Oaklawn, and
turned in a strong effort,
finishing second in what looked like a win in the latter stages. I think he likes
this track.
Saturday (5/16)
1ST — ON MY DIME (Mizzen Mast) had early foot and went four wide, losing lots of ground in
this 1
1/16-mile test. No wonder he tired badly. Next time, in the clear, he might not
settle for
change.
5TH — PATHOKI (Wiseman’s Ferry) was 19-1 and rallied six wide in this five-furlong
maiden claiming
event. That move should be noted.
7TH — SWEET AND FLAWLESS (Unbridled’s Song) was clearly the best of the rest in this chase of a
monster on the lead. Watch for this one again in allowance company of if she’s
dropped into a high-priced claimer.
8TH — DREAM DATE DIVA (Gulch) showed good early speed and was dueling bravely for a
46-1 shot, a warning for her next sprint. She should break her maiden at
Churchill.
Sunday (5/17)
3RD — ALEXANDRITE RING (Century City [Ire]) seemed off in this mile turf test, coming in third while
clearly the best of this field.
10TH — GENTLE EDWIN (Trust N LUck) was very wide early and then wider later while executing a
challenge. At one panel less than a mile, this one raced far better than his
43-1 status.