SPRINT DIARY
OCTOBER 20, 2009
by Vance Hanson
To paraphrase Samuel Clemens, who knew a little something about
horse racing, the reports of ZENSATIONAL‘s
(Unbridled’s Song) invincibility have been greatly exaggerated. That thought
came to mind in recent weeks as the final preps for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint
(G1) yielded at least two contenders who might give the heralded three-year-old
a serious challenge in the November 7 showcase at Santa Anita. Zensational, who
will be the deserving favorite in a few weeks, was given some time off by
trainer Bob Baffert following his romp in the September 6 Pat O’Brien S. (G1)
and should be fresh and ready to go for what will undoubtedly be his toughest
assignment to date.
We’ll first to take a look at who we perceive to be
Zensational’s two main rivals for Breeders’ Cup Sprint honors then have an
overview of those who will not be making the trek to California.
Gayego: If Zensational is in any way softened up in the
early stages of the Sprint, the one he might have to fear most in the final
furlong is GAYEGO (Gilded Time), who turned in an effortless rally from near the
back to win the October 11 Ancient Title S. (G1), a course-and-distance prep for
the Sprint. Gayego appeared to float into contention when making a very wide
rally at the top of the stretch and passed rivals with the greatest of ease en
route to a 1 1/2-length victory. He earned a BRIS Late Pace rating of 111 and
completed his final quarter-mile in the neighborhood of :23.
Call it the Silky Sullivan syndrome, but many racing fans can’t
get enough of deep-closing sprinters. They’re certainly wonderful to behold when
they get the job done, but they don’t always do. Midnight Lute was successful in
the last two editions of the Sprint employing come-from-behind tactics, but I
don’t think Gayego is in the same class. He does have the versatility to rate
closer to the pace, however, so he’s far from one-dimensional. Perhaps the most
important factor is that he likes the Pro-Ride strip.
Fatal Bullet: Another with a fondness for Santa Anita and
synthetics in general is FATAL BULLET (Red Bullet), who possesses a stellar
11-9-2-0 mark on such surfaces. One of those two losses was a strong second to
Midnight Lute in last year’s Sprint, a performance that tipped the scales in
favor of the Reade Baker pupil as Canadian Horse of the Year. The gelding
rebounded from a poor effort on dirt in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. (G2) to win
the October 9 Phoenix S. (G3) at Keeneland by a half-length after pressing the
pace throughout. He also prompted the pace at Santa Anita a year ago, so the
free-running Zensational might have to work hard from the start if both he and
Fatal Bullet break alertly.
Another headed to Santa Anita from the Phoenix is CAPT.
CANDYMAN CAN (Candy Ride [Arg]), who fared well in his synthetic debut with
a grinding second-place effort. The sophomore, who was elevated to first in the
King’s Bishop S. (G1) two back, could certainly improve off that race, but still
has the look of horse who probably prefers dirt and a seventh furlong.
Staying home: It appears that the surface the Sprint will
be run over has the connections of the East Coast’s leading dragsters looking
elsewhere this fall. As we all know, the decision to hold the Breeders’ Cup at
Santa Anita in consecutive years has hurt the depth of several races over the
two-day fixture and the Sprint will not be immune.
The October 3 Vosburgh S. (G1) at Belmont Park, therefore, did
not ultimately hold any Breeders’ Cup implications. Conducted in a heavy
downpour, the Vosburgh served as a rubber match between FABULOUS STRIKE
(Smart Strike) and KODIAK KOWBOY (Posse). Each had beaten the other at
their preferred distance this year, Fabulous Strike in the six-furlong
Vanderbilt and Kodiak Kowboy in the seven-furlong Carter H. (G1), and Fabulous
Strike was naturally the odds-on favorite to come out on top in the six-furlong
Vosburgh.
Fabulous Strike tracked in second behind Go Go Shoot
(Songandaprayer), seized control from that pacesetter and opened up two lengths
in midstretch, then began to shorten stride as Kodiak Kowboy hit another gear
when rallying in between rivals. At the wire, it was Kodiak Kowboy ahead by a
half-length. For Fabulous Strike, it was another tough beat in the Vosburgh over
an off-track.
Frankly, we were surprised Kodiak Kowboy displayed that kind of
turn of foot going that short. His only stakes score under 6 1/2 furlongs prior
to this had been a five-furlong dash at Woodbine in 2007, the year he was named
Canada’s champion juvenile. The Vosburgh was Kodiak Kowboy’s first start back
for Steve Asmussen, who trained the colt as a juvenile before being
transferred to the soon-to-be-retired Larry Jones, so perhaps the change in
training techniques was at least partially responsible.
Neither Kodiak Kowboy nor Fabulous Strike will be headed to
Santa Anita. Kodiak Kowboy’s main goal is the November 28 Cigar Mile (G1), which
Vosburgh third Munnings (Speightstown) is also targeting. Fabulous Strike, who
left the Arcadia, California, oval with a bad Pro-Ride aftertaste following last
year’s Sprint, will also point to dirt stakes on the East Coast. Both are
nominated to next Saturday’s Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash (G1) at Laurel,
and it would be great to see these two titans hook up once more. It’s a
longshot, but the De Francis might still have Eclipse Awards implications.
Eclipse talk: If Zensational wins the Breeders’ Cup
Sprint, it’s hard to imagine Eclipse Award voters not supporting him
overwhelmingly. But what if he loses, and badly? Though seemingly unlikely he
would run up the track, stranger things have happened, and it is interesting to
look at various hypothetical scenarios.
If Fatal Bullet were to win the Sprint, he would certainly
attract plenty of support. But the numerically powerful eastern bloc of Eclipse
voters would be hard pressed to overlook his ugly last-place finish in the
Vanderbilt. When it comes to dirt, Fatal Bullet virtually can’t stand up on it.
However, a victory by Gayego would probably satisfy dirt purists as his first
stakes win of the season was a Group 3 event on dirt in Dubai. He was also
second in the Godolphin Mile (UAE-G2).
From this angle, neither Fabulous Strike nor Kodiak Kowboy would
have much to lose by contesting the De Francis as a win by either would pad
their credentials for Eclipse consideration in the event of goofiness on the
Pro-Ride two weeks later. Trying to claim another top-level race would make more
sense for Kodiak Kowboy than using the October 31 Bold Ruler H. (G3) as his
final Cigar Mile prep, while Fabulous Strike could potentially even up the
series with Kodiak Kowboy in what could be a prelude to him carrying everything
but the kitchen sink in the Fall Highweight H. (G3) on Thanksgiving Day.
Given the fact a horse campaigned exclusively on dirt was named
champion of the division last year despite the results of the Breeders’ Cup
Sprint, there certainly seems to be a sizable number of voters who would rather
not hold their nose to vote for a candidate whose main credentials were achieved
exclusively on synthetics. They only need a viable alternative which they can make a valid
case for. That’s something Messrs. Asmussen and Beattie should keep in mind in
the coming days.
Talk of the De Francis would not be complete without mentioning
VINEYARD HAVEN (Lido Palace [Chi]), who will be the Godolphin
representative for the race. The three-year-old returned from a long spell in
August by passing the wire first in the King’s Bishop S. (G1), but he was
subsequently demoted and placed second for interfering with Capt. Candyman Can.
With just two starts this season heading into Laurel’s biggest race, Vineyard
Haven probably won’t be contending for any year-end honors regardless of his
performance, but he could certainly seal the championship fates of either or
both of the big two with a victory.
Fillies and mares: The newly upgraded Breeders’ Cup Filly
and Mare Sprint (G1) might not have a large field when it’s renewed for a third
time on November 6. Last year’s one-two, VENTURA (Chester House) and
INDIAN BLESSING (Indian Charlie), will be joined by at most three other
legitimate contenders, and whoever makes up the rest of the field will have a
tall mountain to scale to earn one of the larger checks.
Ventura will enter the Filly and Mare Sprint off a victory in
the Woodbine Mile (Can-G1) on turf, a performance analyzed by my esteemed
colleague, Kellie Reilly, in the October 14 edition of her
Turf Diary. I would echo her sentiments that Ventura should aim higher and
go for the Mile (G1) rather than a repeat score in the Filly and Mare Sprint.
Perhaps one reason why the Juddmonte crew and Bobby Frankel are taking the less
adventurous route is because Ventura’s chances of winning an Eclipse Award as
champion female sprinter seem better this year than last, when she was
campaigned mostly on turf. Despite defeating Indian Blessing in the Breeders’
Cup, that rival wound up as divisional champion due to her body of work on the
main track.
Indian Blessing’s resume is much thinner heading into the
Breeders’ Cup this time than it was a year ago. Despite showing signs of her old
self in a game win over SARA LOUISE (Malibu Moon) in the September 26
Gallant Bloom H. (G2), we have doubts whether the dual champion has what it
takes to erase the entire four-length deficit that existed between her and
Ventura a year ago. Indian Blessing, though competent on synthetics, is a dirt
horse at heart, while Ventura is an ace going seven furlongs on Santa Anita’s
Pro-Ride, having also landed the Santa Monica H. (G1) following her Breeders’
Cup score.
Sara Louise, the last horse to finish ahead of Rachel Alexandra
(Medaglia d’Oro), will be in the same boat as stablemate SEVENTH STREET
(A.P. Indy), the dual Grade 1 winner, when trying a synthetic surface for the
first time next month. Sara Louise ran an outstanding race in defeat when bowing
by a head in the Gallant Bloom, and keep in mind it was only her second start of
the season following an easy victory in the Victory Ride S. (G3) the previous
month. The three-year-old has a very bright future ahead of her, particularly
next year when the top two presumably head off to pasture and the Breeders’ Cup
returns to dirt at Churchill Downs.
On paper, Seventh Street seems oddly placed in this spot. A
winner versus lesser going short, she developed this year into one of the better
older fillies on dirt in the 8 1/2-to-nine furlong range. She might surprise us,
but her connections obviously wanted no part of Zenyatta (Street Cry [Ire]) in
the Ladies’ Classic and yet still wanted her to compete on racing’s biggest
stage whether she was entirely suited to the distance and surface or not.
Undoubtedly the biggest threat to Ventura is INFORMED
DECISION (Monarchos), who remained undefeated on synthetics when landing the
Presque Isle Downs Masters S. (G3) and Thoroughbred Club of America S. (G2)
since our last edition. Regular rider Julien Leparoux cut it a bit close in the
latter going six furlongs at Keeneland, but she appears far more suited to seven
furlongs. She handled the Tapeta at Presque Isle as well as the
Polytrack at Keeneland and Arlington she was more familiar with, and that will
give her connections confidence as she tries Pro-Ride for the first time in a
few weeks.
Of more importance is Informed Decision already has
experience beating Ventura, having done so in the April 9 Madison S. (G1) at
Keeneland. Though the margin was only a head when in receipt of two pounds, the
win is still a plus for Informed Decision as far as Eclipse balloting is
concerned, as is her victory on dirt in the Humana Distaff (G1). Three weeks
out, these two seem to be to have the best chance at a divisional crown.
The tale on turf: As of this writing, it appears the
primary European challengers in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint will be the top
two finishers from the October 4 Prix de l’Abbaye (Fr-G1), TOTAL GALLERY
(Namid) and FLEETING SPIRIT (Ire) (Invincible Spirit). While the former
has come on late this season, Fleeting Spirit, who missed by a just a neck in
the Prix de l’Abbaye, might still be the more qualified to make her presence
felt over Santa Anita’s tricky downhill course.
The filly has been remarkably consistent this year, if not a
little unlucky. In addition to her narrow loss at Longchamp, Fleeting Spirit went down by
less than a length in both the King’s Stand S. (Eng-G1) and Haydock Sprint Cup
(Eng-G1), but did beat males over a straight six furlongs at Newmarket in the
July Cup (Eng-G1). Last year, she was the mild 4-1 favorite in the Breeders’ Cup
Turf Sprint but was compromised by a slow start. She closed well to be fourth,
beaten 2 1/4 lengths, and that past experience might be of some help on November
7.
If Fleeting Spirit doesn’t get the job done, there’s still a
chance a girl (two, in fact) could do it. Trainer Jenine Sahadi, who trained back-to-back
Sprint winners Lit de Justice and Elmhurst in 1996-97, has announced she will
point GOTTA HAVE HER (Royal Academy) to the Turf Sprint after whipping
California’s best turf filly sprinters in Saturday’s Senator Ken Maddy H. (G3).
The five-year-old mare, who has won or placed in all eight starts this season,
won the Palomar H. (G2) two back and is well-versed going down the hillside turf
course having also taken the Las Cienegas H. (G3) back in April.
Among males, the home course advantage clearly goes to CALIFORNIA FLAG
(Avenue of Flags), who triumphed in the Morvich H. (G3) for the second straight
year on opening day of the Oak Tree meet. Though a tiring 10th after dueling
early in the Turf Sprint last year, trainer Brian Koriner is reportedly more
confident of the gray’s form heading into the Turf Sprint than he was a year
ago. As for the rest of the Morvich field, runner-up GET FUNKY (Straight
Man) ran his best race in a long time when missing by a length, but might find
it difficult making the Turf Sprint field with only that one good race this
year. DESERT CODE (E Dubai), who upset last year’s Turf Sprint at 36-1,
ran his third subpar race in a row when seventh in the Morvich. He does not seem
as interesting a longshot this time around.
One Californian with longshot appeal is NOBLE COURT
(Indian Charlie), who placed behind Zensational in the O’Brien and Triple Bend
in his last two. The Ack Ack H. (G3) victor won the course-and-distance Joe
Hernandez S. earlier this year and narrowly missed in his only other turf sprint
attempt two years ago. The Hernandez yielded Desert Code last year, can
lightning strike twice?
The best of the East Coast contingent for the Turf Sprint seems
to be CANNONBALL (Catienus), whose exploits in England we covered in a
previous edition of the diary. His victory in the September 6 Commentator S. at
Saratoga, versus New York-breds, looks better now as runner-up
SILVER TIMBER (Prime Timber) returned to win the Woodford S. (G3) by 1 1/4
lengths. That six-year-old veteran also won the Jaipur S. (G3) over the summer,
and could not be going any better at the moment. Meanwhile, the candidacies of
CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE (War Chant) and JUNGLE WAVE (Hold That Tiger)
each took a hit with their loss to Field Commission (Service Stripe) in
Saturday’s Nearctic S. (Can-G2) at Woodbine.
There’s at least a half-dozen specialists who have shared in the
spoils in the major turf sprints east of the Mississippi River this year. Some
of them will show up at Santa Anita and some won’t. If not viable win threats,
their presence will at least make the Turf Sprint one of the best betting races
of the weekend.
Next up: The final installment of the Sprint Diary will
feature our top three selections and a longshot to watch for in the Sprint,
Filly and Mare Sprint and Turf Sprint.