THOROUGHBRED BEAT
OCTOBER 29, 2009
by James Scully
Some early thoughts on the Breeders’ Cup pre-entries:
Mile not Classic?: The decision to list the Dirt Mile (G1) as MASTERCRAFTSMAN’s
(Ire) (Danehill)
first preference is a puzzler. He’s been a Classic (G1) contender since early
summer, with Aidan O’Brien touting the colt’s abilities at 10 furlongs following
his sharp victory in the one-mile St. James’s Palace S. (Eng-G1) at Royal Ascot,
and his last three starts came at 1 1/4 miles or more. Mastercraftsman turned in
top-class performances when placing behind Sea the Stars in the Juddmonte
International (Eng-G1) and Irish Champion S. (Ire-G1), and the chestnut exits an
easy five-length score in the 1 5/16-mile Diamond S. (Ire-G3) over the synthetic
track at Dundalk, Ireland. Why wouldn’t he run in the Classic, which is listed
as his second preference?
RIP VAN WINKLE (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) is the only reason. Winner of the Queen
Elizabeth II (Eng-G1) and Sussex S. (Eng-G1) in his last two starts, he’s the big
gun in the seven-horse Coolmore contingent, and the Irish outfit must feel that
Mastercraftsman will be no match for “Rip.” Perhaps there is a wide gap between
the classy Europeans, but Coolmore was more keen on Duke of Marmalade (Ire)
before his ninth-place effort as the third choice in last year’s Classic, while
19-1 stablemate Henrythenavigator finished an excellent second.
Rip Van Winkle will be no cinch in his first start over a synthetic track,
and Mastercraftsman is too much of a Classic threat to run earlier on the
program.
Less-than-capacity fields: The Turf (G1) figures to have only eight
starters, seven if DAR RE MI (GB) (Singspiel [Ire]) opts for her second
preference in the Filly & Mare Turf (G1), and the Ladies’ Classic (G1), which
drew nine pre-entries, will likely feature a cast of eight as ZENYATTA (Street
Cry [Ire]) opts for the Classic and the cross-entered fillies RAINBOW VIEW
(Dynaformer) and LETHAL HEAT (Unusual Heat) remain in the mix. The Filly & Mare
Turf will probably have the shortest field in its 11-year history, with only
eight probable contestants.
The Juvenile Fillies Turf was the only race to oversubscribe on Friday. The
Breeders’ Cup caught some flak for adding both the Juvenile Turf and Juvenile
Fillies Turf to its line-up, but those races will feature contentious fields
that are well-stocked.
The Mile (G1), which usually fills to its 14-horse limit, attracted 14
pre-entries, but it will be reduced to at least 12 starters when COLONEL JOHN
(Tiznow) and AWESOME GEM (Awesome Again) depart for the Classic, and three
additional horses are listed with a second-preference elsewhere. The Dirt Mile
appears to be packed with 21 pre-entries, but nine of those horses have
first-preference in another race.
The 33-horse international contingent — 34 if you count Proviso (GB) (Dansili
[Ire]), who prepped in the Spinster (G1) — was greatly needed to help fill the
14-race program this year.
Godolphin: The royal blue silks of Dubai are well-represented with 15
pre-entries. Highlights include MUSIC NOTE (A.P. Indy) and COCOA BEACH (Chi)
(Doneraile Court), who will provide a strong one-two punch in the Ladies
Classic; St Leger S. (Eng-G1) winner MASTERY (GB) (Sulamani [Ire]), who looms as a
the possible favorite in the Marathon; DELEGATOR (GB) (Dansili [GB]), a
top-class invader for the Mile; and Ancient Title S. (G1) hero GAYEGO (Gilded
Time), who should have plenty of pace to set up his formidable late kick in the
Sprint (G1).
I will be interested to see what Godolphin does with REGAL RANSOM (Distorted
Humor) and GIROLAMO (A.P. Indy), who are cross-entered to both the Classic and
Dirt Mile. The Classic is first-preference for both runners, but will it be the
best fit for the three-year-old colts? Regal Ransom appears to be in great form,
easily winning the Super Derby (G2) in wire-to-wire style last time, but he ran
poorly over the Pro-Ride when eighth in the 2008 Norfolk S. (G1) at Santa Anita and
the dark bay was no factor when stretching out to 1 1/4 miles in the Kentucky
Derby (G1) earlier this season. Girolamo has returned to the races in a
sensational manner this year, registering BRIS Speed ratings of 105-105-107 in
three daylight victories. However, all of those starts came around one turn, at
distances of a mile or less, and he’s never been a true route.
Regal Ransom and Girolamo are both still lightly raced, with the potential
for many big stakes prizes in front of them, but I have to question whether
either can make a serious impact upon the 10-furlong Classic at this stage in
their career. The Dirt Mile is probably a better fit for them, but Godolphin is
already well-equipped in that race with 2008 Juvenile (G1) winner MIDSHIPMAN
(Unbridled’s Song) and Forego S. (G1) winner PYRO (Pulpit). The
talented duo is probably headed to the Classic, which could really benefit the
late runners in the field.
There isn’t much speed among the 16 Classic pre-entries, and Regal Ransom
will likely be on the engine, with the speedy Girolamo closely tracking him.
Trainers: Godolphin’s Saeed bin Suroor leads the way among trainers
with 15 pre-entries, and Todd Pletcher comes next with 12. However, both sport a
low winning percentage in the Breeders’ Cup, with bin Suroor winning only
two-of-31 starts (6.5 percent win) and Pletcher striking with just three-of-56
runners (5.4 percent).
Among the foreign-based conditioners, Aidan O’Brien will have several top
contenders among his seven starters, but he’s a dismal 3-for-52 (5.8 percent) in the Breeders’ Cup. Others of note include John Gosden, who has three
pre-entries and owns a respectable three-for-20 mark (20 percent) in the
Breeders’ Cup; Sir Michael Stoute, who shows a four-for-29 (13.8 percent)
record and is responsible for three horses this year; Henry Cecil, who will look
to snap a zero-for-six skid with three runners; and Jeremy Noseda, who is
one-for-seven overall and has three horses pre-entered this year.
A couple of names you won’t see in this year’s Breeders’ Cup are Hall of
Famers D. Wayne Lukas and Nick Zito. And the reigning Eclipse Award-winning
trainer, Steve Asmussen, who leads all American-based trainers in both purses
and wins, will send out only two starters in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup, KODIAK
KOWBOY (Posse) in the Sprint and JUNGLE TALE (Lion Heart) in the Juvenile
Fillies Turf. Both horses look like outsiders.
The Breeders’ Cup records of notable American-based trainers with multiple
starters this year are:
Richard Mandella — six-for-30 (20 percent)
Jonathan Sheppard — one-for-six (16.7 percent)
Kiaran McLaughlin — two-for-12 (16.6 percent)
Bob Baffert — seven-for-50 (14 percent)
Bill Mott — five-for-57 (8.8 percent)
Bobby Frankel — six-for-79 (7.6 percent)
Christophe Clement — zero-for-17
Kenny McPeek — zero-for-10