HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
OCTOBER 30, 2009
by Dick Powell
The Breeders’ Cup saw 166 horses enter its 14 races and there was only one
surprise. The Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1), even with a $3 million purse, only
attracted eight horses with it as their first preference, with SUMMER BIRD (Birdstone)
listing it as his second preference and the Classic (G1) first.
I know it’s hindsight, but you have to figure that many of the 18 horses that
dared to challenge SEA THE STARS in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) would
have been better suited here. For some reason, Aidan O’Brien ran Irish Derby (G1)
winner Fame and Glory (Montjeu [Ire]) in the Champion S. (Eng-G1) two weeks ago
instead of the Turf, where he would have been one of the favorites.
We’ll wait to find out whether ZENYATTA (Street Cry [Ire]) will take on boys in the Classic
or defend her crown in the Ladies’ Classic (G1). The fields will shape up next
Wednesday with entries and post positions drawn. Until then, it’s just a matter
of watching replays and trying to get familiar with all the horses.
I know it’s frustrating when a lightly-raced superstar like Sea the Stars
heads off to stud after a brief career, but racing has the ability to regenerate
itself. It was announced by owner Christopher Tsoi that Sea the Stars would take
up stud duties at the Aga Khan’s Giltown Stud in Ireland. It is expected that
one of the many high-class broodmares that will be visiting him will be the
equally meteoric Zarkava, as the last two Arc winners
will be bred to each other. In the true British willingness to bet on anything,
bookmaker Ladbroke’s is already offering 100-1 odds on the resulting foal
winning the 2014 Arc.
And just as soon as Sea the Stars brilliant career came to an end, there’s
already a juvenile colt Ireland that is inspiring some very flattering
comparisons. O’Brien threw everything but the kitchen sink this year
against Sea the Stars and all his sophomore colts came up short.
But O’Brien might get his revenge with the awesome ST. NICHOLAS ABBEY
(Montjeu [Ire]), who destroyed a strong field of juvenile runners in last Saturday’s
Racing Post Trophy (Eng-G1) at Doncaster going a straight mile.
Winner of his first start at a mile over heavy going at The Curragh, St.
Nicholas Abbey imitated Sea the Stars with a facile victory in the Beresford
S. (Ire-G2) at the same course and distance. But Sea the Stars was beaten in his
career debut at two and St. Nicholas Abbey goes to next year’s classics
undefeated.
At Doncaster, Johnny Murtagh took St. Nicholas Abbey back to last behind a
very tight pack that raced down the middle of the track. The colt was content to bide his time and showed a high degree of
maturity racing between horses and resisting the urge to go. With less than a
quarter mile to go, Godolphin’s Al Zir (Medaglia d’Oro) made his move to the front and set the stage for an epic battle between himself and St.
Nicholas Abbey, Elusive Pimpernel (Elusive Quality) and Coordinated Cut
(Montjeu [Ire]).
But just as soon as the battle began, it was over in the time that it took
Murtagh to shake the reins on St. Nicholas Abbey. He had cruised up between
horses to engage Al Zir and pulled away from him with alarming ease, displaying
a burst of acceleration that resembled Rock of Gibraltar’s (Ire). St. Nicholas
Abbey ran his final quarter mile in astounding fashion as he extended his stride
to unbelievable lengths without too much encouragement from Murtagh.
Already the ante post betting favorite for next year’s Epson Derby (Eng-G1), St.
Nicholas Abbey’s odds were slashed to 3-1 by most of the bookmaking firms and
the inevitable comparisons to Sea the Stars will be made all winter. It was sire Montjeu’s third winner of the Racing Post Trophy in the past six years, and the
first two went on to win the Derby.
Comparisons are great to make, but you need something that is at least
somewhat comparable. What trainer Bart Cummings accomplished in last weekend’s
Cox’s Plate (Aus-G1) at Moonee Valley in Australia had the media searching for new
superlatives and coming up empty with anything to compare it with.
The Cox Plate is run at a little more than 1 1/4 miles at weight-for-age conditions.
Considering it’s spring in the Southern Hemisphere, a three-year-old running in the Cox
Plate is like running against Grade 1 company here in April. It has been done
before, but what Cummings did on Saturday left everything one searching the
record books.
SO YOU THINK (High Chaparral [Ire]) was making only his fifth career start for
Cummings and was in against eight millionaires. He broke his maiden at first
asking at the end of last year then came back to win a Group 3 two starts
back. In the Caulfield Guineas (Aus-G1) last out, he chased the pace from a wide
draw and never threatened while finishing fifth.
In the interim, he worked at Moonee Valley around its tight turns and showed
an inability to handle them. He just seemed to be too long-striding to negotiate
his way around the course, but a funny thing happened at the start. Rider Glen
Boss, mostly known for his three historic Melbourne Cup (Aus-G1) wins aboard the
immortal Makybe Diva, gunned him to the front from post 7 in
the run into the first turn. Boss rode him so aggressively that he cut off some
of the other speed horses and wound up with a 10-day suspension. But he made
the lead and So You Think, who had never shown any kind of pace before, was on
his way.
With Boss in front on So You Think and Craig Williams chasing in second
aboard the other three-year-old, Manhattan Rain (Encosta de Lago), it looked like it would
just be a matter of time before their more experienced rivals would take over.
But So You Think kept on going and even after blowing the final turn into the
short straight, he opened up more daylight and held on to a comfortable win.
As soon as the race was over, the TV analysts were proclaiming it as Bart’s
greatest accomplishment. What So You Think lacked in experience was more than
made up for by the 81-year-old Cummings experience. Trainer of 256 Group 1
wins, including 12 Melbourne Cups, Cummings just keeps rolling along. The man
who has accomplished everything still finds new achievements, and he does it all
with a dry, droll wit that you have to listen closely to or you will miss the
humor.
Unlike last year when Cummings snuck up on the Melbourne Cup and won it with
longshot VIEWED (Scenic), this year he’ll have at least three runners in the
24-horse field. Viewed is back and will be the starting highweight after winning
the Caulfield Cup (Aus-G1) a few weeks ago. He’ll get his final prep race for the
Race that Stops a Nation in Saturday’s Mackinnon S. (Aus-G1) before Tuesday’s
Cup.
No, you are not seeing things. Just like last year, Viewed will run 1 1/4 miles
on Saturday and come back on two day’s rest in the 2-mile Melbourne Cup. And, he
won’t be the only Cup runner that will race on Saturday.
Now that Sea the Stars has retired, Aidan O’Brien can take advantage with a
big Breeders’ Cup and he’ll be sending a seven-horse contingent to
Santa Anita. He disclosed this week that MASTERCRAFTSMAN (Ire) (Danehill Dancer), a
four-time Group 1 winner, will have his first preference in the Dirt Mile (G1) as Irish
Derby (Ire-G1) winner RIP VAN WINKLE (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) could be the stable’s
lone representative in the Classic.
A victim of hoof problems throughout the year, Rip Van Winkle was very
impressive winning the Queen Elizabeth II S. (Eng-G1) last out and comes into
the Classic as the one of the best horses O’Brien has ever sent over here to
compete on the main track. He’s rated much higher than last year’s Classic winner
Raven’s Pass was at this time last year and switching
Mastercraftsman to the Dirt Mile is a major vote of confidence for him from
O’Brien.
The old “Presque Isle horses at Keeneland” betting angle had a good weekend
down in Lexington, Kentucky. Despite their recent success, bettors still ignore them and
when they win, the fireworks on the tote board are ignited. On Friday, Ronin
Justice (Skip Trial) missed by a nose in the opener at odds of 41-1. Later in
race eight, ARIANA D (Rock Slide) rallied from off the pace to win going away
and pay $44.40.
On Saturday in the 5TH race, CAT PARK (Tale of the Cat) won on the turf and paid
$29. Then in the featured Raven’s Run S. (G2), SATAN’S QUICK CHICK (Sky
Mesa) rallied up the rail from dead last and won going away, paying $48.80.